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USATSI

Another week, another winner. Week 14 wasn't huge, but it was a win nonetheless. I see you Taysom Hill garbage time. We saw the cash line drop last week, but it was never going to live up to Week 13 when we had all that chalk and value hit. We did, however, have another massive Hunter Renfrow game. He's now gone over 100 yards three games in a row and has provided 17+ PPR points in five of his past six games. While the Raiders season has gone awry, at least they've established Renfrow as one of the better slot receivers in all of football. If you're playing on the Saturday slate (you should be), I'm sure you'll have plenty of Renfrow in your lineups.

On to Week 15. Bye weeks are over! Even with that fact, we have just an 11-game main slate with the two games on Saturday. It's an interesting main slate, too. I know that game totals usually fall this time of year due to the weather, injuries, etc. but we don't have a single game over a 47.5 total. That game is the Cardinals at Lions, where Arizona is also a 13-point favorite. It doesn't make for the most competitive affair. We're just lacking firepower on this slate. While we get Cooper Kupp back, we lose out on the Chiefs, Chargers, Buccaneers, Vikings, Jonathan Taylor and Alvin Kamara. There are not as many high-end options worth spending up on. Of course, there is that one I just mentioned but you most likely have to decide between him and Davante Adams. Let's start there.

Cooper Kupp vs. Davante Adams

This is an all-time close call, up there with the likes of burger or pizza and cake or ice cream. Why can't we just have both? Well, it's actually possible if you spend down everywhere else, but I'm going to assume most people are choosing just one of these two. On one hand you have Kupp, who leads the NFL in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. He has double-digit targets in 12 of 13 games. Oh, and Odell Beckham was placed on the COVID list earlier this week, which should only lead to more targets for Kupp. With Adams, he's gone over 100 yards in three straight games and has scored multiple touchdowns in two of those outings. He had 33.5 and 37.1 DraftKings points in those games. While he hasn't been as consistently amazing as Kupp has this season, I would argue they still have a similar ceiling.

Early ownership projections show Kupp as the highest owned player on the slate at around 24% in tournaments. Adams checks in at 14% himself. I think a very surface level take is to target Kupp in cash games and single-entry contests with Adams being the preferred play in bigger-field GPPs. It's not as simple as that because I still think you can use Kupp regardless of contest this week, which makes him my answer. I love both but think Kupp's floor and ceiling are just a tad higher, especially when you consider Adams' quarterback is playing through a toe injury.

Speaking of quarterbacks…

How are we handling the quarterback position?

Well, this question might be answered for you based on who you chose between Kupp and Adams. You don't have to play Matthew Stafford with Kupp or Aaron Rodgers with Adams but I wouldn't blame you if you wanted to, either. Like most weeks, there are three clear options at quarterback this week: spend up, play Dak Prescott in the mid-tier, or spend down. The options I'm looking to spend on include Josh Allen, Kyler Murray and Stafford. I know he might not have the same upside, but I'm actually leaning Stafford. Allen is playing through a foot injury and facing a tough defense while Kyler Murray is a massive favorite and will be without his top target. I still like both. Don't get me wrong. I just like Stafford most of the three. It's a divisional matchup for him against a subpar Seahawks defense. Sign me up.

When it comes to Dak Prescott, I'll admit he's been underwhelming recently. He's thrown one touchdown pass or less in three of his last four games and just hasn't really been the same since his calf injury. He has a few ceiling games sprinkled in there against the Falcons and Raiders, but there's been little to no consistency. Maybe that's why I like him. I think we'll get Prescott at lower ownership this week, and his $6,500 price point on DraftKings is very affordable. Like Stafford, Prescott plays a division matchup against the Giants, a defense that has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three of their last four games. They also allowed 302 passing yards and three touchdowns to Prescott earlier this season. I'm in.

But what if you're spending down at the position? The clear and obvious play on everybody's mind is Tua Tagovailoa. He's played well recently and he's coming off the bye against the Jets. Makes sense. The problem is he just lost his best receiver Jaylen Waddle to the COVID list plus Tagovailoa projects to be pretty popular. If you're looking for a leverage play at the same price point, Mike McClure had this to say on Fantasy Football Today DFS:

"Tua is fringe playable for me right now. An optimizer is going to tell you that he's a good play. I can tell you right now that I'm electing to play Big Ben [Roethlisberger] in most of my lineups over him, just a pure leverage play. You look at the total in this game. It's actually lower than the Steelers game… The discrepancy in how likely they are to be popular and some of the game scripts, I would much rather have Ben in a competitive game."

Here are some of my favorite stacks in Week 15:

What to do at running back?

Oddly enough we haven't even mentioned the running back position yet. That's by design. I'm not going to say it's awful this week, but what's one step below that? Bad? Yucky? That's what it is. Ezekiel Elliott is the second-highest priced running back on the main slate and he's averaged under 4.0 yards per carry in five straight games. I think the $6,000 price range and below will be very popular this week and it makes sense if you want to spend on Kupp or Adams. As of now I would say James Robinson and Chase Edmonds are my two favorites in that range, but there are still a lot of moving parts regarding injuries and COVID. I know Robinson is banged up with heel and knee injuries, but this just feels like such a get-right spot for the Jaguars. Urban Meyer is finally out of town and they're going up against a Houston Texans defense that is allowing 5.87 yards per play, fifth most in the NFL. Assuming Robinson is healthy enough to handle 12+ touches in this game, I have faith he'll exceed value at his price tag.

Here are the running backs I'll be targeting as of now:

As always, here's a GPP lineup I've built out:

  • Matthew Stafford, $7,000
  • James Robinson, $5,400
  • Antonio Gibson, $6,000
  • Cooper Kupp, $9,000
  • DK Metcalf, $6,200
  • DeVante Parker, $4,300
  • Gerald Everett, $3,500
  • Van Jefferson, $5,600
  • Jaguars DST, $2,800