Can Andrew Luck and the Colts upset the Patriots? (USATSI)
Can Andrew Luck and the Colts upset the Patriots? (USATSI)

Before we get to my picks and I tell you who's going to the Super Bowl, let's talk about who's not going to the Super Bowl -- and let's start that conversation with Broncos running back C.J. Anderson. 

Against the Colts on Sunday, Anderson did the most daring thing I've ever seen a 5-foot-8 man do to a 6-foot-7 man. Actually, let me rephrase that, Anderson did the most daring thing I've ever seen a sober 5-foot-8 man do to a 6-foot-7 man. 

What you're watching is Anderson trying to stop teammate Orlando Franklin from scuffling with some Colts players. 

In a perfect world, Anderson would be going to the Super Bowl for that kind of effort, but this isn't a perfect world. Just ask Meathead Rob Lowe, who we're all judging even though he's rich enough to own a jet ski, $12,000 worth of supplements and has a tanning bed in his garage. 

I have no jet ski, the only supplements I eat are Funyuns and even if I owned a tanning bed, I wouldn't have a garage to put it in.

Another person who won't be at the Super Bowl is Dez Bryant. Look, I'm not going to sit here and say what happened against the Packers was a catch or wasn't a catch (it was a catch), but I am going to say that the NFL needs to change their catch rule, and that's mostly because it doesn't make sense. 

Seriously, the word "etc." is in the NFL rule book. If the NFL wants to keep the rule, maybe they should put actual words in place of "etc." so there's no confusion. Even LeBron James was confused.

I don't want to live in a world where NFL rules don't make sense to LeBron. That's an unhappy world. That's a world Meathead Rob Lowe would probably enjoy.

The reason I know Dez caught the ball is because every celebrity on Twitter thinks he caught the ball and celebrities, as far as I can tell, are never wrong. Dawson Leery, Steve Urkel, Dwight from The Office, Eva Longoria AND REAL ROB LOWE all agree that Dez's catch was a catch.

Let me say that again: REAL ROB LOWE thought it was a catch. This is the same guy who broke the news on Peyton Manning's retirement in 2012. Sure, he was wrong about that, but I know he's right about this.

The other reason I know Dez made the catch is because Deion Sanders says it wasn't a catch and I generally disagree with everything he says.

OK, but he does have a point about the rules.

Anyway, another player who's not going to the Super Bowl is Panthers kicker Graham Gano -- and that's probably for the best because Kam Chancellor might be there and I'm pretty sure Gano is going to be having nightmares about Chancellor for at least the next three years. 

If Gano announces his retirement tomorrow, I won't blame him.

Now it's time for the picks.

Actually, before we get to my picks, you should take a second and check out the playoff picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here. Their picks are probably all wrong though -- and by all wrong, I mean all right. For the second week in a row, someone went 4-0 against the spread.

OK, for real, let's get to my picks. If you hate them, let me know on Twitter. If you don't have Twitter, let me know in the comment section. If you have any tips on how to grow a neckbeard, I'll take those too. 

NFC championship

Green Bay (13-4) at Seattle (13-4), 3:05 p.m. ET (FOX): I've never seen Jaws II, but I think it's about a shark who can smell blood in the water. I'm only bringing that up because that's basically going to be the Seahawks defense when Aaron Rodgers walks into CenturyLink Field on Sunday.

A healthy Rodgers going up against the Seahawks defense in Week 1 was barely a fair fight, and a gimpy Rodgers going up against the Seahawks defense could get ugly. 

Even when he was a 100 percent healthy this season, Rodgers struggled when the Packers went up against an opponent with a good defense. Rodgers' three worst games of 2014 came against defenses that ranked in the top-four in the NFL (Seahawks in Week 1, Lions in Week 3 and Bills in Week 15). In those three games, Rodgers threw a combined three interceptions, which doesn't sound like a lot, but it is for him because he only threw five all season. 

Part of what makes Rodgers so good is his ability to escape the pocket and make a big play, an ability he didn't have against Dallas. If Rodgers is still immobile by the time Sunday rolls around, it's hard to see the Packers offense finding much success.

The best way to take pressure off Rodgers would be to get Eddie Lacy going, but that's going to be nearly impossible against a Seahawks defense that ranked third against the run in 2014.

Speaking of getting the run going, don't be surprised to see Beast Mode go Beast Mode against a Packers defense that gave up 4.9 yards per carry to DeMarco Murray in the divisional round. The Seahawks ground game is actually better than what the Packers saw against the Cowboys and that's mainly because Russell Wilson is always a threat to run.  

Can the Packers win this game? They can, but they're going to have to put up points to do it. Against Seattle, 28 seems to be the magic number.

Since 2012, the Seahawks are 0-6 in the regular season or playoffs when an opponent scores 28 or more points. The problem is that I don't think an injured Rodgers can lead the Packers to 28 or more points. Seahawks 30-20 over Packers. 

AFC championship

Indianapolis (13-5) at New England (13-4), 6:40 p.m. ET (CBS): The Patriots and Colts have played each other twice over the past 12 months and in both games New England literally ran all over Indy. 

In Week 11 this season, the Patriots ran for 246 yards in a 42-20 win. Then there was last year's playoffs, where the Patriots ran for 234 yards in a 43-22 win. 

So the Patriots are going to run it down Indy's throat, right? Not necessarily. Bill Belichick is going to do whatever it takes to win, even if that means abandoning the run like New England did in its 35-31 win over Baltimore.

Out of 66 plays against the Ravens, the Patriots only called 12 running plays. It was so ugly -- or beautiful, depending on your point of view -- that New England's leading rusher, Brandon Bolden, finished the game with 7 yards. 

Jonas Gray, who ran for 201 yards against Indy in Week 11, wasn't even active against the Ravens.

Let's forget about the Patriots' ground game, though, because the Colts rushing game is the one we should be talking about. When Indy gets going on the ground, the Colts are almost impossible to beat and that's mainly because Luck isn't forced to carry the team.

Including the playoffs, the Colts went 12-1 this season in games where they rushed for more than 90 yards and 1-4 in games where they went under. If the Colts ground game is working, that means Brady is not on the field and if Brady is not on the field, then the Patriots aren't going to put up more than 40 points like they have the last two times these teams have played. 

I like the hot team and the Colts have been hot in the playoffs, winning each of their first two games by double digits. The only team in the past five years to win a wild-card game and divisional game by double-digits in the same season was the 2011 Giants. I'm guessing Patriots fans probably remember that team.  

As long as Chuck Pagano memorizes the rule book and every legal offensive formation by Sunday, I think the Colts can pull off the upset. Colts 27-24 over Patriots. 

Last week

Best pick: Last week I picked to the Seahawks to beat the Panthers by 14 and then the Seahawks went out and beat the Panthers by 14. I know what you're thinking, "Everyone picked the Seahawks to beat the Panthers, so you're best pick isn't even a best pick, it's an average pick -- at best."

I don't disagree, I'm just thankful I got any picks right. Right, Marshawn?

Worst pick: Not only did I pick the Broncos to beat the Colts, but I picked Denver to score 38 points and win by double digits. None of that happened. As a matter of fact, the opposite of that happened. It was an embarrassing pick and I've never been more humiliated in my life, which is why I called John Elway after the game and made him fire John Fox. I'm kidding, I never call John Elway. We only text. 

Last week's playoff record

Straight up: 2-2

SU overall: 5-3

Against the Spread: 3-1

ATS Overall: 5-3

Final Regular Season Record

Straight up: 164-91-1

Against the spread: 125-131