NFL Week 18 picks: Why Panthers will beat Buccaneers to win NFC South title; can Jaguars and Patriots cover?

Tyler Sullivan gives his picks for this weekend, including the 49ers winning the NFC West

We're at the finish line of the 2025 regular season. This particular weekend in the NFL is tricky when it comes to gambling because team motivations can become clouded. For instance, clubs that are already in the playoffs and have nothing to gain in the final weekend of the regular season could opt to rest key starters, thus turning the odds on their head.

We're seeing some of that this time around with the Chargers not starting Justin Herbert, with L.A. already locked in as a wild-card entry. With Trey Lance now expected to start, that has turned the Chargers into a sizable underdog against Denver, which will be playing at full strength as it attempts to secure the No. 1 seed. While that situation is relatively clear, some teams could keep their intentions closer to the vest and play starters for only a specific amount of time, so we'll need to keep our heads on a swivel.

As we try to navigate these murky waters, I'll look to end the regular season on a high note and stay above .500 with my five locks of the week, which include a pick in the winner-take-all AFC North showdown between the Ravens and Steelers.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

2025 record

Locks of the Week ATS: 44-41-0
ATS: 112-141-3
ML: 159-96-1

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN | Fubo, try for free)

I don't trust either of these teams long-term and ultimately believe whoever advances will be one-and-done in the playoffs. That said, someone needs to win this game and the NFC South, and I think it's going to be the Panthers. Why? Because I think the Buccaneers are going to let this game slip through their fingers, just as they have for much of the stretch run this season.

The Bucs have lost four straight and seven of their past eight games, which coincides with Baker Mayfield fading dramatically. Over his last 10 games, he's completing just 60.7% of his passes for 195.1 yards per game. He's also thrown nine interceptions during that stretch after tossing just one through the first six games of the year. Tampa Bay is 0-8 when Mayfield throws at least one interception this season, and given the streak he's on, I expect him to give Carolina the ball at some point -- and the Panthers to take advantage.

Raymond James Stadium also hasn't been the friendliest venue for the home team, as the Buccaneers are just 1-6 in the building this season, giving them the second-lowest home cover rate (14.3%) in the NFL.

Projected score: Panthers 24, Buccaneers 21
The pick: Panthers +2.5

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC | Fubo, try for free)

This is another highly anticipated Week 18 matchup for a division crown, where I ultimately believe the winner will be ousted from the playoffs during Wild Card Weekend. 

It remains to be seen if Lamar Jackson will play in this game as he deals with a back injury, but Baltimore has gone 2-0 and averaged 35.5 points per game in the past two games without him. A large part of that success has been thanks to Derrick Henry, who took over last week's win over the Packers as he rushed for 216 yards and four touchdowns. 

Expecting that type of performance from Henry is too lofty, but it's a fair expectation for him to have a strong day against a Steelers team that he's had success against in the past. In his past three games against Pittsburgh, Henry has rushed for 442 yards, which includes a 94-yard rushing performance in Week 14.

While Henry's resurgence is a key element in why I think Baltimore wins, it's not the main reason. Specifically, it's because Pittsburgh will not have the key X-factor from its win against the Ravens earlier this season: DK Metcalf. The standout receiver is still serving his two-game suspension stemming from an altercation with a fan in Detroit.

Back in Week 14, Metcalf posted a season-high 148 receiving yards against the Ravens, which included three receptions of at least 20 air yards. Without him, Pittsburgh has no viable deep passing attack, which will likely stifle its chances in this matchup.

Projected score: Ravens 24, Steelers 20
The pick: Ravens -3.5

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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

The Jaguars have plenty of motivation to play their starters Sunday. First, they need a win or tie -- or a Texans loss or tie -- to clinch the AFC South. Second, if they win and both the Broncos and Patriots lose, the Jaguars would be the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Because Denver and New England both play in the late-afternoon window, Jacksonville won't know its fate as it relates to the No. 1 seed when it kicks off, so the starters are likely to go wire to wire.

While Cam Ward has played better down the stretch for Tennessee, this Titans squad should be viewed as a soft landing spot for the Jaguars as they wrap up the regular season at home. Yes, this has grown into a sizable spread, but Jacksonville has been the best team to back at home. At EverBank Stadium, the Jaguars are 6-1 ATS. That 85.7% cover rate is the highest in the NFL, as is their 13.1-point average margin of victory.

Projected score: Jaguars 33, Titans 20
The pick: Jaguars -12.5

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

Sean McVay told reporters after Monday's loss to the Falcons that the Rams' starters will play in Week 18. However, there's a chance they may not play the entire game. Much of that depends on what happens Saturday between the Seahawks and 49ers. If San Francisco loses, that puts more emphasis on L.A. playing the game out, as a victory over Arizona would secure the No. 5 seed in that scenario.

There is motivation to be the No. 5 seed this season, as it would send the Rams to either Carolina or Tampa Bay for the wild-card round, as opposed to Chicago or Philadelphia if they are the No. 6 seed. If the 49ers win, however, the Rams will be the No. 6 seed regardless of how their game unfolds, which could result in McVay opting to rest starters.

Either way, I still think the Rams will be able to score against Arizona, whether it's Matthew Stafford under center or backup Jimmy Garoppolo. The Cardinals are allowing 28.2 points per game this season, and that number has worsened in recent weeks, as they've surrendered 34.3 points per game over their last three contests. Arizona is also 1-7 ATS over its last eight games entering the regular-season finale.

Projected score: Rams 30, Cardinals 17
The pick: Rams -7

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

New England still has an opportunity to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC, provided it defeats the Dolphins and the Chargers are able to beat the Broncos. Both games will be played at the same time, but Denver's path became even easier with L.A. announcing it will rest Justin Herbert, with its playoff position already locked up. 

Still, I wonder if Mike Vrabel will trot Drake Maye and the starters out for the first half and then check in on the Broncos-Chargers game at halftime. If Trey Lance is surprisingly putting Denver on upset alert, Vrabel will keep his foot on the gas. If that game is out of reach in favor of the Broncos, that would be the point to turn to the reserves.

Even under that scenario, the Patriots showed last week that they can put up points in a hurry and build a first-half lead that keeps the backdoor only slightly ajar. Quinn Ewers looked better last week in the win over Tampa Bay, but playing in the cold environment of Foxborough is a different animal entirely than Hard Rock Stadium.

Projected score: Patriots 33, Dolphins 20
The pick: Patriots -10.5

Rest of the bunch

Seahawks at 49ers (Saturday)
Projected score: 49ers 27, Seahawks 23
The pick: 49ers +1.5

Browns at Bengals
Projected score: Bengals 30, Browns 16
The pick: Bengals -7.5

Cowboys at Giants
Projected score: Cowboys 30, Giants 23
The pick: Cowboys -3.5

Packers at Vikings
Projected score: Vikings 27, Packers 17
The pick: Vikings -7.5

Colts at Texans
Projected score: Texans 27, Colts 16
The pick: Texans -10.5

Saints at Falcons
Projected score: Falcons 24, Saints 20
The pick: Falcons -3

Lions at Bears
Projected score: Bears 30, Lions 23
The pick: Bears -3

Chiefs at Raiders
Projected score: Chiefs 20, Raiders 17
The pick: Raiders +5.5

Chargers at Broncos
Projected score: Broncos 27, Chargers 17
The pick: Chargers +12.5

Jets at Bills
Projected score: Bills 24, Jets 19 
The pick: Jets +7

Commanders at Eagles
Projected score: Eagles 28, Commanders 20
The pick: Eagles -3.5