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Most sports observers have learned that it's usually a bad idea to spout definitive platitudes, because we've all been proven wrong likely more than once. For instance, saying team X, franchise Y or athlete Z will never win a championship, ostensibly because they've never done so before, has historically graded out as a fool's errand.

For instance, we probably all know some long-suffering Boston Red Sox or Chicago Cubs fans who believed they'd never live to see their beloved clubs hang a banner, only to see those perceived curses broken. Boston has won four World Series since 2004, and the Cubs memorably broke a 108-year title drought with a World Series win in 2016.

The same applies to the NFL. Long-suffering Philadelphia Eagles fans have now seen their franchise hoist the Lombardi trophy twice in the past eight seasons, while the Kansas City Chiefs endured a 50-year Super Bowl drought before winning three of the past six.

Will a first-time Super Bowl winner emerge this coming season? That's the question asked in a two-way Super Bowl prop offered by Caesars Sportsbook. All previous winners are favored at -200, while a first-time winner is priced at +165. 

First-time Super Bowl winner this season?: No (-200) 

As stated above, we don't necessarily want to bet against a novel development in sports solely because we've never witnessed it before. However, this prop asks us to basically fade three teams: the Buffalo Bills (+700), who are currently the second favorites to win the Super Bowl behind the Eagles (+650), the Detroit Lions (+900) and the Cincinnati Bengals (+1800).

The tough-luck Bills (+700) infamously lost four consecutive Super Bowls in the 1990s and have yet to reach one in the seven-season Josh Allen era. The Allen-led Bills are 0-3 in the playoffs against the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs, despite going 4-1 against them in regular-season matchups. Although we can't necessarily count on Kansas City's postseason dominance to extend the length of both quarterbacks' careers, the Bills might have a better chance if another AFC club upsets Kansas City early in the playoffs to clear the path. The odds show that oddsmakers respect the talent of the Bills, but the team still lacks a true No.1 go-to receiver for Allen and, with the Kansas City roadblock always looming, we are going to fade the second favorite in the Super Bowl odds.

The Lions (+900) might have seen their best chance with this current core two seasons ago when they memorably squandered a 24-7 lead against the 49ers in the NFC title game. Man for man, they were arguably the most talented team in the NFL last season before a slew of crippling defensive injuries, led by the fractured tibia suffered by defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. Moreover, coach Dan Campbell has repeatedly stated that he believes he can win a Super Bowl with quarterback Jared Goff. He could be right, but Goff is the least confidence-inspiring quarterback among the top contenders and Campbell's penchant for ultra high-risk ventures at critical times has been known to backfire. What's more, the club lost both of its coordinators to head coaching jobs in the off-season, and it's ambitious to expect the same production level without them. 

The Bengals (+1800) were just a few plays away from winning Super Bowl LVI in 2022. But their defense was unable to get a stop when needed most, and the Rams went on to a 23-20 victory. The team's clear commitment to satisfying the demands of QB Joe Burrow isn't necessarily a bad thing, but there's little doubt that the defense has suffered because of it. The Bengals recently signed receiver Tee Higgins to a $115 million deal, meanwhile NFL sack leader Trey Hendrickson is becoming more despondent by the day amid his claims that the club failed to follow through on a market-value offer. Although Cincinnati loaded up on defensive players in the draft, it feels like a longshot that a defense ranking No. 25 in points per game and yards per play allowed last year will improve enough to compete for the Super Bowl.   

Although a first-time breakthrough is far from out of the question, as the 37.7% probability in this Super Bowl prop suggests, we're going to fade a first-time winner this coming season and put our faith in the franchises with recently proven pedigrees. 

Be sure to follow along at SportsLine this coming NFL season to get the best bets from proven experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times.