2019 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Breaking down player rankings 221-230
Learn why you should — and maybe why you shouldn't — draft players 221-230 in our consensus rankings.
Welcome to our 2019 Player Profiles series. We are going through the top-300 in Heath Cummings and Scott White's consensus rankings to give you the case for and the case against drafting each player. By the time you're done, you'll know everything you need to know for drafting in 2019.
221. Andrew Miller, RP, Cardinals
The Case For: In 2016, Miller was the No. 84 overall player in Rotisserie leagues. From 2015-2017 he had a 1.63 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP. He averaged 14.4 K/9. There is enormous upside for Miller as he shares the closer role with Jordan Hicks, and the cost is going to be almost nothing because of his injury-riddled 2018.
The Case Against: Miller doesn't have near the upside in points leagues just because of the uncertainty about his role. While I'd expect there will be many weeks that he's a top-20 reliever, it may not be very easy to predict which weeks those are. In head-to-head points I'd prefer a secure closer or a SPARP.
222. Tyler White, 1B, Astros
The Case For: If White just gets and keeps an everyday role, his 2018 suggests some serious breakout potential. He had an .887 OPS and his 150-game pace was 27 home runs and 95 RBI. White makes acceptable contact and walked at a 10 percent rate last year.
The Case Against: It's going to be really hard to hold on to an everyday job on a team with this many stars and a plethora of prospects knocking on the door. He's already 28 years old and doesn't have the same perceived upside as many of the Astros who are on the way. White is a fine bench bat for your Fantasy roster, but I want more upside.
223. Jake Arrieta, SP, Phillies
The Case For: In a down year for Arrieta he still posted an ERA below four. Yes, he outperformed his peripherals, but his ERA has been better than his FIP each of the past four seasons. He's not even a borderline ace anymore, but everyone in Fantasy Baseball seems to have accounted for this. At his current cost he's a fine rotation piece.
The Case Against: While it's true Arrieta has continued to outperform his peripherals, he's also a considerably worse pitcher. His strikeout rate has gone down each of the past four years. His ERA has gone up each of the last three. You aren't going to get strikeouts or good ratios from him, and at less than six innings per start you won't likely get very many wins either.
224. Marcus Stroman, SP, Blue Jays
The Case For: Ignore the 5.54 ERA from 2018 for a second. Stroman had some injury issues and a ton of bad luck. He had a 3.91 FIP and a 4.04 SIERA. Those aren't particularly good, but they're definitely good enough if Stroman can stay healthy and get back to his inning-eating ways. He's still one of the best in baseball at inducing ground balls and a strong bounce-back candidate, especially if the Blue Jays trade him to a better team with a bigger park.
The Case Against: He's still never posted a K/9 better than 7.34 and as on now he's still on the rebuilding Blue Jays, pitching against the AL East. It's a division with big bats and small parks, neither of which are great for pitchers who don't miss bats.
225. Arodys Vizcaino, RP, Braves
The Case For: Vizcaino saved 31 games for the Braves with a 2.11 ERA in 2018. Every indication we have right now is he'll enter the season as their closer in 2019. A full-time closer on a good team is worth far more than his likely cost.
The Case Against: There is competition for the role from A.J. Minter, who has more upside, and Vizcaino did have shoulder problems in 2018. There's also just a little bit of buzz about the team reuniting with Craig Kimbrel, which would crush his value.
226. Pedro Strop, RP, Cubs
The Case For: Strop will likely open the season as the Cubs closer and could very well hold the job all year. He posted a 2.26 ERA in 2018 and hasn't had an ERA over three since 2014. If he holds onto the job throughout the season, this could be one of the best reliever values in the draft.
227. Trevor May, RP, Twins
The Case For: May will battle Blake Parker for the closer role this spring. If May wins the job and can repeat 2018, he has enormous upside. In 2018 he posted a 12.8 K/9 and a BB/9 of just 1.8. Among relievers who threw at least 20 innings, he had the fifth highest strikeout-to-walk rate.
The Case Against: Parker has more experience closing than May, so that could give him an inside track at winning the job. Also, when you go into the year without a secure role it seems far more likely you may lose the job because of a bad stretch. I'd like to have saves covered before we get to the Trevor May stage of the draft.
228. Domingo Santana, OF, Mariners
The Case For: It's really rare to find a 26-year-old who already has a 30 home run, 15 stolen base season on his resume at the end of the draft. Santana got lost in the shuffle in Milwaukee, but I expect the rebuilding Mariners will give him all the playing time he can handle. He's a steal in Rotisserie leagues.
The Case Against: If you're in a points league, Santana is terrifying. Even if you aren't, you have to consider the big drop-off in environment. He'll play his home games in a much worse park for hitters, and the lineup isn't near as strong.
229. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Angels
The Case For: Simmons was very valuable in batting average last year, and if he maintains a strikeout rate below eight percent he may even be better in 2019. He gives you a few homers, a few steals and just enough runs and RBI that it doesn't feel like he's hurting you.
The Case Against: He's supremely boring. He's never hit 15 home runs and he's only stolen more than 10 bases once. He doesn't hit in the top third of the order either, so there isn't much upside in terms of his run production. Simmons is someone you settle for, not target.
230. Mychal Givens, RP, Orioles
The Case For: He's the Orioles closer, and there doesn't seem to be much competition. His ERA wasn't good in 2018, but his 3.07 FIP suggests it should have been better. You can't get too excited about him, but he's a fine life preserver if you need a few saves at the end of the draft.
The Case Against: Givens made 69 appearances in 2018, including 32 games he finished. Somehow he ended up with an 0-7 record and nine saves. The Orioles are the worst team in baseball and may struggle win 50 games. It's really unclear how much he's actually going to help you in saves, even at the end of the draft.
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