I've been holding back on talking about my coveted 12-team keeper Fantasy league -- the one I am in with my brothers, best friends, college buddies and their brothers -- because I don't want to brag and sound like I'm some sort of know-it-all. That's not professional. But let's be honest: Going 11-0 is cool, no matter what league you're in.
That's where I was heading into Week 12, facing my brother-in-law, David, who took over a mammoth team this season. With my record, I've already clinched a spot in the final four, so really I am playing for pride and for David to not yap all offseason long about how he beat me. David could use a win to make the playoffs himself.
Fast forward to the end of the 1 p.m. games: I am getting destroyed, down by 30 points. I'm already waving the white flag. Steven Jackson racked me up 20 points, but Steve Smith and Eddie Kennison disappointed while Rudi Johnson, Chad Johnson and Alge Crumpler are carrying David's squad. I had Eli Manning, Shaun Alexander, Jeremy Shockey and the Jaguars DST left while he boasted Peyton Manning, Tiki Barber, Marvin Harrison and the Giants DST.
Now fast forward to the middle of the second half of the Giants-Seahawks game: Alexander picked up 40 yards on a drive in the middle of the third quarter. Seattle scored in 2:05, giving them a one-point lead and taking points away from the Giants DST. Alexander picks up over 20 more yards and a touchdown over two more possessions, further hindering the Giants DST. Alexander has 90 yards. Not bad.
With the fourth quarter winding down, Manning connects for 54 yards (30 to Shockey) on the drive, finishing to Amani Toomer, who drags his feet to perfection in the end zone to make it a two-point game. I then score the very rare four-point two-point conversion when Manning hits Shockey for the deuce (I got two points for each of their participation in the play). Suddenly, I'm in the lead because when a player goes over 100 yards rushing or receiving or a QB gets 300 yards, we get a bonus. On this drive, Manning and Shockey hit their bonuses, and I am up on David. The perfect season has a chance! Take down that white flag!
Alexander is next, but he can't sniff a yard without a teammate being penalized. Manning passes for 19 yards and Jay Feely does me a favor and misses a game-ending field goal. We're going to overtime, where all I need is for Alexander to rush for as many yards as possible (but at least 10 to get me to the bonus) and for Manning to throw to Shockey as much as possible, all without Barber running at all (he entered OT with 98 rushing yards -- two shy of the bonus).
Seattle's first OT drive: Nothing for Alexander. Boo.
New York's first OT drive: Manning passes for 23 yards and Shockey bobbles a 10-yard pass, but Feely does me a second favor and misses a second game-ending field goal, and we're still playing football.
Seattle's second OT drive: Alexander gains five measly yards. Who took Alexander and replaced him with Marcel Shipp?
New York's second OT drive: Barber rushes for 49 yards and my lead is trimmed by eight points (Barber hits his bonus). I howl in disgust while co-workers begin to discuss ways to shut me up. However, Feely does me a third favor and misses a third game-ending field goal, and we're still playing football.
Seattle's third OT drive: Finally, Alexander tops the 100-yard mark, giving me back some of those lost points from Barber's run. While I would have preferred the game to end on a Manning-to-Shockey 99-yard pass, Josh Brown does the world a favor and ends the game with a field goal.
I entered the 4 p.m. games down 30 points, now I am up 26 points. I love Fantasy Football.
All right, let's be realistic: I'm in deep trouble because my opponent still has Manning and Harrison. If they connect on two 50-yard touchdowns I am dead. And that could actually happen because Manning and Harrison are about as much of a lock to be good as peanut butter and jelly.
So while I'll probably blow my streak, this is a fun example of just how topsy-turvy Fantasy Football can be. One minute, you're headed for a painful loss; the next, you're in the lead. Nothing is ever certain in Fantasy, and that's a good lesson to bring to the forefront of your mind with the playoffs either arriving this week or in the very near future.
(And if anyone sees Manning or Harrison on the street before their Monday night game, ask them if they can be like Feely and help out a certain Fantasy writer.)
Fantasy vs. Reality
Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.
Fantasy: Tom Brady is the start of the week. Everyone is surprised by Brady's four-interception game (three by Greg Wesley, and two on tipped balls). Mike Philips, a reader from Lincoln Park, Mich., correctly noted that the Patriots were really leaning on Brady to pull the weight for the team. Brady is definitely under pressure to perform, but if I recall recent history, there have been at least three times in the last four Super Bowls where he's been in a pressure-packed situation and did just fine. I'm not too concerned about this game for Brady, but owners who have him as a must-start really have to make sure they are comfortable with their No. 2 passer.
Reality: Jacksonville's offense just got grounded. QB Byron Leftwich, who has been a Fantasy owner's best friend in recent weeks, broke his left ankle at Arizona and will miss anywhere from four weeks to the end of the regular season. While it means a heavy dose of David Garrard, it also means that Jacksonville's passing game is going to take a big hit. And the quarterback position has gotten even tighter for playoff teams down the stretch.
Fantasy: Marcus Robinson should be starting. Robinson is the perfect example of a reserve Fantasy receiver, and that's probably what he was for someone's team in Week 12. Robinson's been living off of a few big games here and there over several seasons, keeping him afloat in Fantasy circles. Don't kick yourself for leaving him on your bench, and don't be duped into starting him in Week 13 when the Vikes play at Detroit (unless you're feeling saucy and want to ride a receiver who had two catches in his three previous games). We have to come up with a nickname for these kinds of benchwarmers who score big when you least expect them to.
Reality: DeShaun Foster is Carolina's running back. The official gamebook listed Stephen Davis as the Panthers' starter in Week 12, but it's Foster garnering all the reps. Davis had the first five carries for Carolina, picked up 23 yards, and then only got one rep for the rest of the game. Foster finished with 23 totes, leading the team for the second straight week, and totaling 101 yards from scrimmage. While Davis will still have a few reps and get goal-line carries, Foster is the recommended option in the coming weeks, including vs. Atlanta in Week 13.
Fantasy: Steve McNair is going to save your Fantasy season. Finally, McNair put it all together and made his young offense work. He tossed for 343 yards -- 119 of them to his running backs -- and looked like the McNair of old. Now the bad news: He did it against the lowly 49ers, and next week he's going to play at Indianapolis. The Titans also have games against Seattle, Miami and Jacksonville, so we've probably witnessed McNair's best game of the season (though he does play Houston in Week 14).
Reality: Ryan Fitzpatrick is worth a Fantasy roster spot. At this stage of the game, the quarterback choices are slim. Injuries and unreliable options have made questionable guys starters. Fitzpatrick's 310-yard, three-TD game at Houston proves that he can make throws in the NFL. You might say, 'Hey, it's against Houston,' but Peyton Manning played the Texans twice and couldn't get to 310 yards. In fact, nobody's hung 300 yards passing against Houston this season, and only three other QBs have tossed for 250 yards. And did you see his 43-yard bomb with perfect touch to Isaac Bruce? He's already better than Jamie Martin. Fantasy owners should add Fitzpatrick as a flier and give him consideration if they need a starting quarterback with a decent arm and very good receivers.
| Week 12 Highs and Lows | ||
| Your Fantasy team probably won if it looked like this: | ||
| QB | Steve McNair | 343 PaYds, 3 PaTDs, 1 PaINT |
| RB | LaDainian Tomlinson | 184 RuYds, 3 RuTDs; 29 ReYds |
| RB | LaMont Jordan | 97 RuYds, 2 RuTDs; 47 ReYds |
| WR | Joe Jurevicius | 137 ReYds, 2 ReTDs |
| WR | Andre Johnson | 159 ReYds, ReTD |
| TE | Alge Crumpler | 104 ReYds, 2 ReTDs |
| PK | Rob Bironas | 4/4 FGs; 3/3 XPs |
| DST | Falcons | 7 PA, 5 Sacks, 2 PaInts, 3 Forced Fumbles, 2 FumRecs |
| Your Fantasy team probably lost if it looked like this: | ||
| QB | Drew Brees | 215 PaYds, 3 PaINTs |
| RB | Mike Anderson | 31 RuYds, FL |
| RB | Marion Barber | 28 RuYds |
| WR | Bobby Engram | 34 ReYds, FL |
| WR | Randy Moss | 28 ReYds |
| TE | L.J. Smith | 28 ReYds |
| PK | Jason Hanson | 1/1 XP |
| DST | Cardinals | 24 PA |
Strategy session
What factor should projected "garbage time" play in possible lineup
changes?
This question comes on the heels of the Bengals' 42-29
win vs. Baltimore in Week 12, where at one point the game was 34-0. Once
the Bengals had that huge lead, they called off the dogs a little bit
and the Ravens scored three straight touchdowns and a fourth later on.
That's what led Jamal Lewis (149 total yards, TD) and Todd Heap
(86 yards, two TDs) to their best days of the season.
Finding a lopsided game is easy, but projecting success in garbage time is tough. Part of the reason why Lewis did so well was because the Ravens had nobody to take reps from him other than Justin Green. If Chester Taylor had been active, he would have taken at least 10 of Lewis' 28 total touches. And who's to say that after Kyle Boller threw his two interceptions and the game was out of hand that Ravens head coach Brian Billick put in Anthony Wright to get some time? Granted, the Ravens still have to see what they've got in Boller, but a team like Cleveland or San Francisco could make a switch to get their rookies some time on the field.
Ultimately, garbage time helps the value of young receivers who need time on the field to help in their development. Mark Clayton is a perfect example; he got a lot of playing time, was thrown to eight times and got a carry as well. Unfortunately, he only had two catches.
Use the "garbage time" factor only with receivers and tight ends, particularly guys in their first or second seasons. One such example for Week 13 is rookie Roydell Williams of the Titans: Williams played in Week 12, catching three passes for 95 yards and a touchdown, so he will see some action at Indy next week. If you are looking for a possible No. 3 receiver who could put up stats late in a blowout loss, Williams should be available on the waiver wire in most leagues.
Any last-minute tips for the Fantasy playoffs?
Not really,
because you got to this point already with a good team and a little
luck. It's always fun to make the Fantasy playoffs -- you're in the hunt
for a championship and bragging rights for at least seven months of the
offseason. That's valuable stuff!
I will offer this: Get your team in order. Don't wait until the playoffs to start hemming and hawing over lineup dilemmas -- look ahead and see who your starters and reserves are going up against for the rest of the season and make sure you are comfortable with the matchups. For example, if you have Thomas Jones as your running back, you're going to want help when he plays at Pittsburgh in Week 14. Think about planning ahead and using your top backup instead if he's got a better matchup.
Map out the entire Fantasy postseason and know who you will be starting each week. In the NFL, this is called "game planning," and in our fun little game, this is as close as we get to doing such a thing. The benefit of doing this is that if you find a hole in your lineup, you still have time to fix it via the waiver wire before the playoffs start (assuming the playoffs haven't started in your league).
Finally, if you didn't make the playoffs and you're not too bitter about it, I suggest you contact a fellow non-playoff team in the league and play out the season against one another. Make it for a free lunch or just a friendly bet, but do it just so you keep your head in the Fantasy game all season long. It will pay off when someone we've never heard of does well in Week 17 and keeps it going into 2006.
Monday night matchup
| PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS |
Kickoff: Monday, 9 p.m. ET. Weather: Dome. QB Ben
Roethlisberger is back and necessary if the Steelers want to
win this game. The bad news is that he's up against the Colts
secondary, but the good news is that he has guys like WR Hines
Ward and RB Willie Parker on his side. Both of those
fellows should make way, giving Pittsburgh some offense. They
should start. Others like WR Antwaan Randle El and RB Jerome
Bettis probably should not start. The big question I've had is
if the Steelers DST should start against the Colts. Unless you can
find another one that has an exceptionally favorable matchup (the
Bengals are such an option), go with them anyway as QB Peyton
Manning should have at least one turnover. The more
interesting battle is between RB Edgerrin James and the
Pittsburgh run defense, which has enough talent in its front seven
to keep him bottled up. Bench James? Hardly, but he won't dominate
like you think he will. WRs Marvin Harrison and Reggie
Wayne are starts as usual, and TE Dallas Clark is a
fair pick; Pittsburgh's secondary isn't spectacular against the
pass. The Colts DST is a pretty good option as well.
|
Parting shots
• The best part of the Giants-Seahawks thriller was that it illustrated that no team in the NFC is dominant. Look at all the contenders and you'll find weaknesses. It will be the team that has the least-glaring weakness that will be the toughest to stop in the playoffs. In my mind, that team is the Panthers: They have a terrific defense (one TD allowed in their last three games), a strong, deep running game, a stud receiver who can break any short route for a big gain and a quarterback capable of passing very well. Their weakness? Lack of depth at receiver, and their special teams could use a little improvement. But they're tight otherwise, and that's what makes them the most dangerous NFC team.
• I think the 'Mike McMahon is the next Billy Volek' talk was a little too premature. McMahon is too erratic to load up on stats week after week. Just compare his Week 12 numbers with his Week 11 numbers and you'll see why he's not a starter in the NFL. You can tell that Ryan Fitzpatrick is a guy I like, but if you're looking for a QB to shine late into the season, I offer up Gus Frerotte of the Dolphins. Miami's running game has been pretty solid as of late, so setting up the pass won't be difficult. They don't have a lot of talent outside of Chris Chambers and Randy McMichael at receiver, but those guys do enough to help Frerotte. It's when he involves the other guys -- the Marty Bookers, the Bryan Gilmores, the guys you'd never touch -- that leads him to big passing games. The last tough secondary Miami faces this season is Buffalo in Week 13; after that, they play San Diego and the Jets before finishing with pass-poor defenses in Tennessee and New England. Frerotte could put up better stats than second-tier QBs down the stretch.
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