Sorting through Ravens run game without released Ray Rice
Is Bernard Pierce the must-own back in Baltimore, or has Justin Forsett passed him by after just one week?
The Ravens run game will move forward with a third-year back who has never broken through, a seven-year back who has never broken through and a rookie burler who has an outside shot to break through. Oh, and an offensive coordinator who has made Fantasy owners throw their hands up in the air in disgust.
Get ready for a mess.
In a review of the Ravens' Week 1 game vs. the Bengals, the team used a definite rotation between Bernard Pierce (the third-year guy) and Justin Forsett (the seventh-year guy). Even before Pierce's first-half fumble Forsett was involved in the Ravens offense, mainly in passing situations.
Pierce looked fine as a physical between-the-tackles runner despite his pre-fumble rushing average. Nothing spectacular but certainly a physical back willing to take on contact and fight for an extra yard. Then he was stripped of the football by Vontaze Burfictand stripped of his workload despite it being his first career fumble. Kubiak's gotta send a message, after all.
Forsett saw most of the work thereafter. He's also nothing spectacular but does have a proven track record of being a capable pass catcher (caught 97 passes for a modest 7.3 yard average over three seasons with the Seahawks). In this particular game he caught five passes but couldn't do much with it (14 yards). But because of the fumble by Pierce, he played 57 of 88 snaps and showed off enough dash as a running back with 70 yards on 11 carries.
The hunch here is that Pierce's first-ever fumble won't cost him a chance to work as the running-downs back for the Ravens. Not after they cut Ray Rice. We might expect to see him play in that run-downs role Thursday against the Steelerson CBS. Forsett should take over in passing downs and potentially the two-minute offense since he's adept enough at pass protection.
Fantasy owners shouldn't be thrilled with either guy because they'll swipe work away from each other. Pierce could score more, Forsett could catch more. It's a tag-team delight on par with the Raiders and Titans. Worse yet, Pierce's physical style contributed to his shoulder woes last season and he could be considered a slight injury risk. Forsett has also missed time over his career.
The wild card and potential long-term X-factor is the Ravens rookie, Lorenzo Taliaferro. If Pierce can't put up numbers consistently in that physical run-downs role, Taliaferro could get a chance. In the preseason he showed off his physical nature -- as well as his lack of a rushing average -- via 243 yards on 65 carries (3.7 avg.) with a 10-yard catch and a touchdown while working mostly with second-teamers. He was a special player at Coastal Carolina and broke a bunch of records there because he was a man among boys playing in the Big South Conference. The jump to the NFL doesn't promise to be as positive.
The bottom line is that the Ravens have a bunch of guys who will take on specific roles and aren't guaranteed to come close to regular must-start Fantasy choices.
Pierce is unowned in 24 percent of CBSSports.com leagues. That number will look like 10-something by Wednesday because someone in every league will take him -- and rightfully so since he has the most appeal.
Forsett is unowned in 100 percent of CBSSports.com leagues. Those who had Rice on their rosters should make a bee-line for Forsett, if only as a short-term band-aid. Whether you have Pierce or not, use your first waiver claim. If you have FAAB dollars, spend around 30 percent of your budget if you don't have Pierce and maybe 15 percent if you do.
That's because smart Fantasy owners who don't have a horse in the Ravens backfield shouldn't race to waivers or spend big FAAB bucks on Forsett (Pierce is a different story). He's not a bad pickup but there might be some better choices such as Terrance West, just to name one.
Taliaferro is worth keeping an eye on and potentially adding in leagues with very deep rosters (18-plus spots). The worse Pierce plays, the more likely Taliaferro will get an opportunity down the line. And for whatever it's worth, Taliaferro is the only back on the roster drafted by the current Ravens offensive brain trust. Also, Gary Kubiak has a good track record of making his run game work with unknowns (he unearthed Steve Slaton and Arian Foster, after all).
