Our Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg and Nathan Zegura provide an early glimpse at what the running back landscape might look like this summer with their Top 30 for 2013.
Fantasy owners are going to have a tough decision to make on the
order of running backs after Peterson and Foster. ... Lynch is the
easy choice at No. 3 because in two years as the starter for Seattle
he scored 25 total touchdowns with over 1,400 total yards in each
season. ... Rice loses value with the potential increase in workload
for Bernard Pierce next year, but
he still has 25 total touchdowns the past two seasons and at least
1,500 total yards in each of the past four years. ... Spiller is in
my Top 5 because of his upside. Fred Jackson
could be gone, and Spiller averaged 6.0 yards per carry and 10.7
yards per catch last season. ... I like McCoy and Charles, who will
be tied together because of the Andy Reid connection. McCoy is a
little safer because of his track record, but the new coach in
Philadelphia will determine if he stays ranked behind Charles. I
love Charles' upside with Reid, who had three primary running backs
during his tenure with the Eagles (Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook and
McCoy) who combined for six 1,000-yard rushing seasons, seven 1,500
total-yard seasons, nine seasons with at least 50 catches and five
seasons with 10 total touchdowns. ... After Morris, who had an
impressive rookie campaign, the guessing game sets in with which No.
2 running back to gamble on. Can Ridley repeat as a Bill Belichick
running back? Can Murray, McFadden or Mathews stay healthy? How will
Jones-Drew do coming off foot surgery? Are Gore and Jackson going to
break down? ... You'll have to gamble on one or two of these guys
because starting in Round 4 next year -- after the run on running
back ends -- finding quality talent could be hard to do. -- Jamey
Eisenberg
It's clear at the top between Peterson and Foster, though I could be
swayed to push Foster down after such a heavy workload in 2012. ...
Owners should have supreme confidence in 2012 rookies Richardson and
Martin, both of whom should be effective with a year of work under
their belts. Keep in mind with Martin, 33 percent of his Fantasy
point totals came in consecutive games (Weeks 8 and 9) while
Richardson had a little more consistency. Richardson also played
with a broken rib and should be able to do better than 3.6 yards per
carry. ... I'm still a fan of Jones-Drew, expecting him to be
healthy in time for training camp, be it in Jacksonville or
somewhere else. In a perfect world he ends up in a place such as
Atlanta, which gets to face some historicially weak run defenses.
But even if he stays with the Jags, he should get back to quality
statistics. ... After Forte (15th ranked running back), things get
ugly quickly at the position. Aiming to get two of the Top 15
running backs on Draft Day is a must in my opinion. ... It was
interesting that the three of us like McFadden and Gore at 16th and
17th, basically representing the last two backs you'd be satisfied
having as your second back. ... If there's a guy we all have ranked
in the mid-late 20s who could ascend inside the top 20s, it's
Wilson. He has exceptional speed and potential on a team with a
solid offense (late last season notwithstanding) -- if he can learn
to pass protect, he'll be one of a handful of backs owners will be
happy to target as a No. 2 option with a pick in Round 4 or 5. Until
then, he's probably more of a Round 6 or 7 choice. The same goes for
Ballard in Indianapolis. -- Dave Richard
It has been a long time since I have felt so good about the Top 16
Fantasy running backs headed into a season. In fact, I think we will
see many owners go back to the old RB-RB formula in the first two
rounds of 2013 Fantasy drafts. ... Peterson is my clear top option
after his remarkable 2012 season and is ahead of Foster, who I am
definitely a little concerned about given that he has touched the
ball 431 times in 18 games in 2012. ... I really like the runners
from Lynch (consistent touches and production) through Morris and
this group will likely have some shifts over the next few
weeks/months based on some off-season moves. ... I do think Bernard Pierce will be playing a big role for the Ravens in 2013
and that could cut into Rice's overall production, which is why he
is down at No.8. ... McCoy, MJD, Johnson, Ridley, Murray and Forte
all have top 10 potential, but injuries and system will have a lot
to do with where that talented group ends up. ...McFadden will
finally be able to be drafted at a palatable spot and the fact that
the Raiders jettisoned Greg Knapp will do wonders for him. ... After
the Top 16 we do have some real question marks but plenty of upside.
Mathews will go late enough in drafts that he can't torpedo your
season and will have a reasonable chance at being a decent value.
... It will be very interesting to see what happens in New York
because if the team turns the reigns over the Wilson, he could
really climb up the rankings. ... There will also be a lot of
movement in the rankings this offseason for running back, depending
upon how some of these committees (Carolina, Miami, New York,
Denver, Atlanta, New Orleans) shake out, we could end up with 20 or
so backs with a good chance to shoulder the majority of the load for
their respective teams, which would be great news for owners. -- Nathan
Zegura
