NFL Week 16 picks: Bears, Panthers tighten grip on division races; Saints' Tyler Shough keeps rolling

Tyler Sullivan gives his picks for this weekend, including the Broncos cooling off the Jaguars

We are coming down to the wire of the 2025 regular season, and Week 16 has the potential for several teams to punch their ticket to the playoffs. Already, the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos have their postseason spots secure, and the likes of the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, and New England Patriots can join them merely by pulling off wins in Week 16. 

With these heightened stakes, it's that much more entertaining for those of us on our couches to have a little money on the action. I'm looking to shake off a miserable Week 15 on the betting front, as I went just 1-4 against the spread for my five locks. My lone win was correctly pinpointing the Broncos to win and cover, so we'll look to turn the tide this weekend. 

Here are my picks for every game on the docket in Week 16, with deeper drives on my five locks of the week that include a few clubs pulling off key division wins.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

2025 record

Locks of the Week ATS: 38-37-0
ATS: 96-127-1
ML: 138-85-1

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Saturday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

Losing Micah Parsons for the season due to a torn ACL is a gut punch for the Packers. The star pass rusher had 12.5 sacks on the season (tied for third-most in the NFL), and his absence completely changes how we look at the club's chances of making a Super Bowl run. It also changes how opposing offenses game plan against them, and should make life wildly easier for Caleb Williams and Co. as they look to keep hold of the NFC North crown. 

These two rivals played a tight matchup at Lambeau Field just a few weeks ago, and I think Williams will be much better at Soldier Field this time around. The Bears quarterback has a better passer rating at home compared to his production on the road (99.2 vs. 81.6), along with a superior yards per attempt average (7.35 vs. 6.53) and TD-INT ratio (11-1 vs. 10-5).

Meanwhile, the Packers' defense (even with Parsons) has been entirely different on the road. Away from Lambeau, Green Bay is giving up 25.6 points per game compared to just 14.6 points per game it surrenders at home. The Packers are also just 2-5 ATS on the road this season -- a 28.6% cover rate that is tied for the third-lowest in the NFL. The Bears take this one to keep control of the NFC North entering Week 17. 

Projected score: Bears 28, Packers 26
The pick: Bears -1.5

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New York Jets at New Orleans Saints

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS | Paramount+)

Ladies and gentlemen, the Saints have found a quarterback. Tyler Shough has turned it on in recent weeks, to the point where he may be playing himself into being the franchise's starter for 2026 and forcing the front office to punt on looking at the position this offseason. In his six starts this season, Shough is completing 69% of his throws and has a 92.1 passer rating. More recently, he's led New Orleans to back-to-back wins against division rivals in the Buccaneers and Panthers.

Now, he's going up against a Jets defense that just allowed Trevor Lawrence to post six total touchdowns (five passing and one rushing), which led to the firing of defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. Shough shouldn't face much resistance this week, which could make it very hard for undrafted rookie Brady Cook to keep up in his second career start. 

Projected score: Saints 26, Jets 17
The pick: Saints -4.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

Both of these teams are coming off fourth-quarter collapses in Week 15, so neither is instilling a ton of confidence at this point in the NFC South race. That said, I think Tampa Bay is in a worse way. The club has lost five of its past six games and allowed 29.3 points per game over that stretch. On the year, the defense is 30th in passing yards per game allowed (246.9 yards) and in red zone efficiency (72.2% touchdown rate). Baker Mayfield has also struggled quite a bit on the road, owning a 1-3 record over his last four road starts while throwing for more interceptions (four) than touchdowns (three).

All that has me fading the Bucs in this pivotal matchup, particularly with Carolina 9-1 ATS in its past 10 games as a home underdog. Bryce Young is also a much better quarterback at home, coming into this game with a 4-1 record at Bank of America Stadium this season with a 67.7% completion rate and a 98.5 passer rating. 

Projected score: Panthers 24, Buccaneers 21
The pick: Panthers +3

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

I don't know what it is, but I just can't get myself to buy the Jaguars quite yet. Sure, Trevor Lawrence's production last week was spectacular, and he leads the NFL in yards per attempt (8.6) and passing touchdowns (13) over the club's five-game winning streak. However, when you look at Jacksonville's opponents, it's hard to come away entirely impressed. For instance, the six-touchdown game in Week 15 came against the Jets.

This Broncos defense is an entirely different animal, and the unit comes into this week with 58 sacks on the season (most by any team through 13 games since the 2000 Saints). Denver is also a perfect 7-0 straight-up at home this season, further emphasizing how tough of an out it has become overall. If the Jaguars can pull this off, I'll start looking at them differently, but I'm not expecting that to be the case. 

Projected score: Broncos 24, Jaguars 20
The pick: Broncos -3

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN | Fubo, try for free)

We faded Philip Rivers and the Colts hard last week against Seattle, and the 44-year-old made us pay, nearly pulling off the outright upset. While that made for a nice story, I think the Seahawks were caught not taking Rivers and Co. seriously and looking ahead to their massive matchup with the Rams on Thursday.

I expect Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh to dial up things that'll make Rivers' life much more difficult than it was last week. As for the Niners, they are one of the sleeping giants in the NFC playoff picture. They've won four straight games by 10-plus points, and Brock Purdy has started to round into form. San Francisco is also 3-0 straight-up and ATS in prime-time games this season. 

Projected score: 49ers 30, Colts 19
The pick: 49ers -6.5

Rest of the bunch

Rams at Seahawks (Thursday)
Projected score: Rams 23, Seahawks 21
The pick: Rams +1.5

Eagles at Commanders
Projected score: Eagles 28, Commanders 17
The pick: Eagles -6.5

Bills at Browns
Projected score: Bills 27, Browns 16
The pick: Bills -10.5

Chargers at Cowboys
Projected score: Chargers 27, Cowboys 23
The pick: Chargers +2.5

Chiefs at Titans
Projected score: Chiefs 23, Titans 21
The pick: Titans +3

Bengals at Dolphins
Projected score: Bengals 28, Dolphins 17
The pick: Bengals -4.5

Vikings at Giants
Projected score: Vikings 24, Giants 20
The pick: Vikings -3

Falcons at Cardinals
Projected score: Falcons 27, Cardinals 23
The pick: Falcons -3

Steelers at Lions
Projected score: Lions 30, Steelers 20
The pick: Lions -7

Raiders at Texans
Projected score: Texans 30, Raiders 14
The pick: Texans -14.5

Patriots at Ravens
Projected score: Patriots 27, Ravens 24
The pick: Patriots +3