Tom Brady and the Buccaneers have lost four of their past five games, and it's time we get to the bottom of why the legendary quarterback and reigning NFC South champions are cascading in a downward spiral.
Of course, there's Brady's age and reportedly imminent divorce that very well could be factoring into his unrecognizable play this season. Instead of attempting the impossible task of trying to quantify how much those two major storylines are impacting him on the field, let's jump into the film to uncover what is wrong with Tampa Bay's offense, with Brady as the focal point.
In his past three contests, Brady has completed 57 of 89 passes (64% completion rate) at 5.98 yards per attempt (YPA). For Brady, that's not good. It marks the first time since December 2019 that he had three straight games that averaged a completion rate lower than 65% with under 6.0 yards per attempt.
To date this season, Brady has had a YPA of under 7.0 in five of seven games, which is only the fifth time in his entire NFL career he's had that low of a YPA in five of seven contests. In scouring the film after the Week 7 embarrassment at the hands of the lowly Panthers, it was obvious to me that Brady's arm is not what it was even two years ago, and that, coupled with a now heightened desire to not get hit, has had a seismic ripple effect on his pocket presence, accuracy and ability to make throws when moved off his spot.
Let's start in Pittsburgh with two throws that were eye-opening, particularly coming from the best quarterback in NFL history at drifting in the pocket away from pressure, resetting, and then firing a pinpoint accurate fastball.
This throw came in the first half of Week 6, and for Brady, it's relatively run-of-the-mill. It's a deeper, in-breaking route that takes an extra split-second to develop, thereby increasing the likelihood a slide away from pressure is necessary. Watch what happens.
The ball ran out of gas about three-quarters of the way to Chris Godwin, dipped, and fell incomplete. Sure, there was an inside rusher in his lap as he threw the football, but we've all witnessed Brady connect on that exact type of play hundreds and hundreds of times in his career. Like clockwork.
OK, just one play though, right? Nope. Later in the loss to the Steelers, Brady made an almost identical mistake. Here, he didn't need to glide away from pressure but couldn't throw totally in rhythm, and that hitch forced the football low again. Incomplete.
Watch it again. It's almost as if Brady was overly and unnecessarily concerned about the potential of pressure, which led to his hitch and gave way to the low-velocity throw that needed to be an accurate heater to be completed.
But not all of Brady's incompletions are demonstrations of his deteriorating arm strength. It's not like he simply can't crank the MPH anymore. It's just when he does, he's much more likely to throw with bad ball placement than ever before in his 20-plus seasons in the NFL.
Like on this miss to Mike Evans against the Panthers.
While not a laser beam, it had plenty enough juice to get to the star wideout deep down the field. Yet, the shoulder dip in the pocket to avoid the oncoming rusher threw Brady off, and he sailed a pass that is almost always a completion from the future Hall of Fame quarterback.
If that wasn't worrisome enough for you, these next two will be. Later against the Panthers, Brady was afforded a squeaky clean pocket. He looked right. Nothing there. Then floated left while surveying. Then panic set in, his footwork got sloppy, and he forced a football into heavy traffic.
Brady was never an improvisational master. It has always been about unprecedentedly sound fundamentals and throwing mechanics. Yet, late in that play, the lack of physical capability was striking.
Near the end of the 21-3 defeat in Carolina, Brady again demonstrated uncharacteristically nervous feet in the pocket before sending a ball over the middle that should've been intercepted.
Yes, his intended target fell as he broke inward. But that was not a pass with a high chance of being completed. It needed to be out sooner or thrown like a rifle shot. It wasn't either. And it came on a play in which the Panthers showed an all-out blitz pre-snap but ultimately didn't blitz at all, as three of the on-the-line defenders sank into coverage post-snap.
That pocket was clean by today's NFL standards (heck, it was clean by the standards by which Brady has played since 2001). Over the last 20 years in that type of scenario, Brady stands stoically and the ball is delivered with anticipation and serious gas, or he calmly gets to his checkdown in the flat on the other side of the field. Positive play for the offense. Instead, it should've been intercepted.
If one solely observed Brady from a clean pocket to date this season, it would appear as if everything is business as usual. He's completed 72% of throws while unpressured with a slightly lower-than-usual 7.08 YPA and eight touchdowns, one interception and a 100.8 passer rating.
However, he's completed 39.1% of his throws while under pressure, the eighth-lowest rate in football among qualifiers, and his 3.76 YPA in those scenarios trails only Mitch Trubisky, Kyler Murray and Zach Wilson for the lowest in that same group of quarterbacks.
And it's not as if Brady's dealing with pressure at an alarmingly high rate compared to the past. His pressure rate is currently right around 20%, one of the lowest in football, just like it was in 2021 and his first season in Tampa.
Brady is more troubled by pressure than ever before, and his previously sneaky big arm has declined. That combination has caused significant problems for the Buccaneers' pass game during the club's 3-4 start.
