A pair of NFC East rivals square off in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season on Sunday, Sept. 13 when the Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders. The rivals met in the NFC Championship Game in the 2024 NFL Playoffs, and Philadelphia won that matchup on their way to a Super Bowl title. The Eagles made the playoffs again in 2025, losing to the 49ers in the wild-card round, while the Commanders struggled, thanks in large part to injuries to quarterback Jayden Daniels. Both teams are hoping to compete for the NFC East title in 2026.
The Eagles are 6-point favorites in the latest Commanders vs. Eagles odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for Week 1, and the total comes in at 47.5. Philadelphia is a -265 favorite (wager $265 to win $100) on the money line, while Washington is a +215 underdog (wager $100 to win $215). Before making wagers on Commanders vs. Eagles and other Week 1 NFL games at the best sports betting apps, you should check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say about this matchup.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 NFL season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns. We'll use its insights to make our picks for Commanders vs. Eagles, with all odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Commanders vs. Eagles best bets for Week 1
- Eagles -6 (-112)
- Over 44.5 (-105)
- DeVonta Smith Over 65.5 receiving yards (-110)
Eagles -6
The SportsLine model has Philadelphia covering this spread in 61% of simulations, good for an "A" grade. The Eagles have dominated recent matchups with the Commanders, with eight wins across the past 11 meetings, including the NFC Championship Game. Daniels coming back does give Washington a boost offensively, but this defense is still expected to be among the worst in the league. Even with Philadelphia's offensive woes a year ago, the unit did average 22.3 points per game. Philadelphia's defense allowed just 19.1 points per game a year ago and brings back most of its key players. I don't see Washington solving this unit in Week 1, even if Daniels is back.
Over 44.5
First-year offensive coordinator Sean Mannion comes to Philadelphia looking to get back to an offense that featured a 2,000-yard rusher and a quarterback who completed nearly 69% of his passes. The Eagles were a juggernaut in 2024 and then plummeted to the middle of the league offensively in 2025. Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert form a great quartet, and rookie receiver Makai Lemon should have an immediate role. The Commanders were 27th in points allowed per game a year ago, and with Philadelphia's renewed focus offensively, I expect the Eagles to put up points at home. The Over hits in 50% of SportsLine simulations, bringing value at these odds.
DeVonta Smith Over 65.5 receiving yards
Even with A.J. Brown on the field in 2025, Smith went past this receiving yards mark in six games, including the playoff loss. With Brown gone, the 2020 Heisman Trophy winner should command even more targets in this offense. The expectation is that Philadelphia will at least try to be more productive on offense and give Hurts more opportunities to throw the ball. Smith is poised for a big year and he gets a favorable matchup in Week 1, as Washington ranked 28th in passing yards allowed per game a year ago. The SportsLine props model has Smith at 79.6 yards for Week 1.
