WACO, Texas -- No. 13 Baylor shocked undefeated No. 8 Oklahoma 27-14 in perhaps the worst showing of the Lincoln Riley era. The Sooners set new lows in points and yards under Riley's command as the Bears held them to just 260 total yards.
Sooners starting quarterback Caleb Williams completed just 10-of-19 passes for 146 yards and two interceptions before getting yanked in the second half for Spencer Rattler. However, Rattler also struggled to find any momentum against the physical Baylor defense.
Eighty of Oklahoma's yards came on a garbage-time drive after going down by three scores late in the fourth quarter. Heading into that drive, the Bears were holding the Sooners to just 4.3 yards per play. Baylor recorded nine tackles for loss and five sacks, including a pair of sacks from middle linebacker Terrel Bernard.
The Baylor offense also struggled in the first half, but the game flipped when quarterback Gerry Bohanon got involved in the run game, finishing with 104 yards and 2 touchdowns on eight carries. He also threw for 117 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Running back Abram Smith added 148 yards, including a 75-yard breakaway in the second half.
The win continues Baylor coach Dave Aranda's stretch of impressive performances against Riley. Prior to Saturday's loss, the worst performance from a Riley-led offense came against 2-7 Baylor in 2020 (269 yards). Aranda's 2019 LSU defense also held Riley's offense to 322 yards in the College Football Playoff semifinal, resulting in one of the Sooners' worst performances in recent years.
Oklahoma still has to play against No. 10 Oklahoma State and Iowa State to earn a trip to the Big 12 Championship Game. Baylor has losses to Oklahoma State and TCU, but holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Sooners still gives it a path to the Big 12 title.
Here are the takeaways from Saturday's upset in Waco ...
1. Oklahoma's CFP hopes are on life support
The Sooners had not played a team with a winning conference record coming into Saturday. Losing by double digits against two-loss Baylor puts Oklahoma firmly on the hot seat as far as its playoff hopes are concerned. A loss likely pushes the Sooners closer to Wake Forest than Oregon or Ohio State in terms of how the selection committee views them.
Yes, Oklahoma has lost a regular-season game before and made the playoffs, but this time the loss feels different.
Oklahoma still has critical matchups against Oklahoma State and Iowa State remaining on the schedule, but those might not be enough to push it back into the top group after so many poor performances. Keep in mind: this is the same team that needed a miracle to beat Kansas. Oklahoma is running out of time with just a few weeks left in the regular season.
2. Dave Aranda has Lincoln Riley's number
One good performance is a moment. Three good performances is a trend. For the third time, Aranda's defense held Riley's offense to historic lows. The 260 yards is the worst performance by Oklahoma since Riley took over as offensive coordinator in 2015.
Aranda got after Williams, holding the superstar freshman QB to easily his worst performance since taking over the starting job. More importantly, Baylor suffocated the Oklahoma rushing game, holding it to 78 yards and 2.8 yards per carry. In Aranda's two games at Baylor, the Sooners have reached just 269 and 260 total yards -- the former of which came in a 2-7 season in Waco.
3. Oklahoma's issues are deeper than QB
With the offense sputtering, Riley threw both Williams and Rattler in the game to try and build some offensive momentum. But when the offensive line is getting bullied and the running backs are being contained, there's not much any quarterback can do to fix it. Numerous receivers had drops and the running backs combined for just 55 yards rushing on 14 attempts.
Oklahoma found some offensive consistency against TCU, Kansas and Texas Tech -- three of the worst defenses in the Big 12 -- after switching to Williams. But after scoring 23 against Nebraska, 16 against West Virginia and now 14 against Baylor, the Sooners might just be structurally flawed.
4. Baylor can win the Big 12
If the Bears hadn't overlooked TCU a week ago, they might have a strong case for the Big 12's best team. But while the program needs some help to earn a trip to the Big 12 title game, the path is still very much open for Baylor to win the Big 12.
Baylor now has wins against No. 8 Oklahoma and Iowa State, two of the three teams it's competing against to reach the Big 12 title game. The lone loss came on the road against Oklahoma State, which still has matchups with TCU, Texas Tech and Oklahoma remaining.
The final stretch of the Big 12 title race could get wild, and Baylor is poised as well as any to emerge victorious if the Sooners slip up again down the stretch.