The 2024 Major League Baseball season is already upon us and is beautifully and mercifully still young. As such, it may seem indecent to soil matters by tacitly calling to mind things like exit interviews and COBRA plans and feverishly googled unemployment policies and LinkedIn password-reset prompts and lying through a viscous sludge of snot and tears – lying to everyone, most especially yourself – on social media that you're "looking forward to what's next." Alas and alack, we're here to do just that.
We're here to do just that by reluctantly declaring which big-league managers may be going into the 2024 season on hot seats of varying temperatures. None of this is to suggest these forthcoming skippers deserve such straits or that will inevitably be terminated. Rather, it's just a laundry-list of managers who may be in peril if the 2024 season doesn't yield the desired or at least the respective results for their respective clubs.
Before we begin, let's note that Cardinals manager Oli Marmol would've been prominently placed on this list had he not recently signed a surprise contract extension through the 2026 season. Coming off the Cardinals' first losing season since 2007 and first 90-loss season since 1990, Marmol definitely seemed imperiled going into 2024. While managers can be and have been defenestrated while under contract, Marmol is probably safe for the timespan in question.
Now on to the chosen hot seaters for 2024, listed in suspense-filled alphabetical order.
Bud Black, Rockies
Black probably isn't in grave danger given how the Rockies do things. Still, let's note that Black has guided the Rockies to five straight losing seasons, and their record has steadily gotten worse. Last year, Black and the Rockies endured a franchise-record 103 losses, and the 2024 model projects to be similarly terrible. It's fair to wonder whether Black would survive such depths again,
Aaron Boone, Yankees
The Yankees are coming off an 82-win season in 2023, which was their worst season since 1992. Early this past offseason, Boone's job was widely thought to be in danger, but that turned out not to be the case. If he's to be the Yanks' skipper beyond 2024, however, significant improvement in the standings will be required. With Juan Soto notably added to the fold, expectations are high in the Bronx, and Boone must meet them.
Alex Cora, Red Sox
Cora is in the final year of his contract with Boston, so if things go awry this could be more a case of letting him walk at the end of the season rather than terminating him. For our purposes, though, it's close enough. Boston's problem is owner John Henry's lack of interest in fielding a playoff-worthy roster, but as we know blame for the failures of ownership and the front office often accrue to the manager. It's possible the Red Sox are headed for a third straight last-place finish in the AL East, and Cora may not survive such a thing.
Pedro Grifol, White Sox
Grifol's first season on the South Side occasioned 101 losses and rumors of clubhouse dysfunction. Now leaning into a rebuild under new GM Chris Getz, the Sox will almost certainly be terrible in 2024. Even though the Sox are almost certainly bound for last place in baseball's weakest division, Grifol's status may hinge on improved vibes and whether he can oversee improved performances from some of the team's remaining veterans leading up to the trade deadline.
A.J. Hinch, Tigers
Hinch is now in his fourth full season as Detroit's manager, and he's still seeking his first winning season. To be fair, that's in line with expectations given the rosters the Tigers have trotted out in recent years. Even so, Hinch was hired before president of baseball operations Scott White was, and when a manager isn't the hand-picked choice of the team's baseball-ops leader it's always a situation worth monitoring. Hinch doesn't necessarily need to oversee a surprise playoff run to keep his job, but improvement and perhaps a winning season may be required of him
Mark Kotsay, A's
Obviously, you can't blame Kotsay for the rank and cynical efforts at sabotage by John Fisher, the sport's worst owner (and a competitive category, that one). Still, we can't entirely skate around the fact that the A's under Kotsay have won just a bit more than 33% of his games. Framed another way, Kotsay, even though he's managed barely more than two seasons, is already one of just 49 big-league managers to be 100 or more games under .500. To repeat, the strip-mined roster is to blame for all of this, but managers are typically the first scapegoat in line.
Dave Martinez, Nationals
Martinez has a ring as Nats manager, but that feels like a very long time ago. Since then, Martinez and the Nats have endured four straight losing seasons. They "improved" to 71-91 last season from the depths of their 107-loss campaign in 2022. However, this year's club projects to be one of the worst in baseball. If that indeed comes to pass, then Martinez could be in danger.
Dave Roberts, Dodgers
It feels absurd to have Roberts on this list. In eight full seasons on the job, he's guided the Dodgers to eight playoff berths, seven division titles, one World Series triumph in the abbreviated 2020 season, and two additional pennants. Over that span, Roberts has won a whopping 63.1% of his games. Among managers with at least 1,000 career games, Roberts is first in career winning percentage. All that said, there's immense pressure on Roberts and the Dodgers to win it all this season. That's what happens when you add the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow, among others, to an already powerhouse roster. Since winning it all in 2020, the Dodgers are 7-12 in the postseason and have been bounced in the opening round in each of the last two years. Another early exit could cost Roberts his job, as unlikely as that sounds.
John Schneider, Blue Jays
Schneider has led Toronto to the postseason in each of his two years on the job. However, they're 0-4 in the playoffs in that span. After last year's Wild Card Series sweep at the hands of the Twins, Schneider and GM Ross Atkins seemed to not be on the same page in terms of pitching decisions in those playoffs. As such Schneider's future in the Toronto dugout may depend not only on getting the Jays into the postseason for a third straight year but also getting them deep into October.
Scott Servais, Mariners
Servais certainly isn't in immediate danger. After all, in 2022 he piloted the Mariners to their first playoff berth in more than two decades, and they've notched three straight winning seasons on his watch. As well, Servais has a close relationship with head of baseball ops Jerry Dipoto. That said, the M's are built to win – as much as they can be in light of ownership's lacking commitment, anyway – and if they miss the playoffs for a second straight year, then Servais could be in trouble.
Derek Shelton, Pirates
This one may be a reach. The Pirates have improved their winning percentage in every season of Shelton's tenure, which is precisely what you want from a rebuilding project. Even so, the young talent has largely trickled in – Paul Skenes notwithstanding – and even more forward progress is expected. It's unfair to say the Pirates need to make the postseason in 2024, but relevance in the NL Central and perhaps a winning season are reasonable expectations for Shelton.
Now with those endangered names laid out, please do go forth into the world and in a towering gesture of sympathy and solidarity get fired from your job.
