Fans of the Cleveland Guardians likely don't want to hear that the 2024 season was a wildly successful one. It really was, though. Saturday's Game 5 loss to the Yankees and subsequent exit from the playoffs now extends their World Series drought to 76 years, but not all is lost. Far from it, in fact.
The Guardians went through the task of replacing managing legend Terry Francona in the dugout and headed toward 2024 with first-year skipper Stephen Vogt guiding a ship that won 76 games in 2023 and didn't seem greatly improved. But greatly improved they were. They won 92 games and the took the AL Central by 6 1/2 games. They've won the division five times in eight full seasons.
Of course, much focus will remain on them having not won the World Series since 1948 -- the longest drought among teams that have won a World Series before -- and only coming away with one pennant in this stretch.
The front office is adept enough to realize that the postseason can be a crapshoot and the best thing they can do is keep building a team that will make it there. Then all bets are off.
Speaking of the front office, here's a quick accounting for where things will likely head this offseason.
Who is out?
Shane Bieber is set for free agency and it seems like that means the end of the road here. It was a good run. On that note, Carlos Carrasco is also a free agent. Trade-deadline rental Alex Cobb's contract is expiring, as is the deal with Matthew Boyd. Backup catcher Austin Hedges is also set for free agency.
That's about it.
Salaried/late-arbitration returners
With the way the Guardians operate, we unnecessarily have to look for players they might deem too expensive to keep or who are one year away from free agency, in which case they might trade them.
Again, the Guardians are in pretty good shape here.
Superstar cornerstone José Ramírez is under team control through 2028 with Andrés Giménez through 2029. Myles Straw's deal goes through 2026 and, yeah, that one is a miss right now. Reliever Trevor Stephan, returning from Tommy John surgery, is signed through 2026, at least, as there are two club options. Same with Emmanuel Clase, who will only make $4.9 million next season.
That's it for the salaried players.
Josh Naylor is the big one who reaches his last year of arbitration before heading into free agency after next season. His power seems too important for them to entertain trading him. Trade-deadline acquisition Lane Thomas also hits his last year of arbitration and this will be an interesting decision that could go either way. If they so choose, they'd be able to trade him.
Great foundation
As things stand, the Guardians look pretty stout heading toward 2025 with their position players.
C: Bo Naylor
1B: Josh Naylor
2B: Andrés Giménez
3B: José Ramírez
SS: Brayan Rocchio
OF: Steven Kwan, Lane Thomas, Jhonkensy Noel
UTIL: David Fry
DH: Kyle Manzardo
There's a lot of youth in there, so improvement at the plate from the likes of Bo Naylor, Rocchio, Noel and Manzardo is possible if not expected.
The bullpen, too, will again be stellar. Stephan will return at some point next season, as will James Karinchak, to join Clase, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin et al. Bullpens are too volatile to proclaim the Guardians will again have the best one in baseball, but it's a decent bet they will.
The rotation
This is where the Guardians need to focus their offseason. They have enough right now for a full rotation, but there are plenty of question marks.
Tanner Bibee isn't "true ace" level, but he's the ace of this staff. No questions here.
Former first-round pick and top prospect Gavin Williams has had a very inconsistent first two years in the majors. He also has a lot of talent and the Guardians surely give him a shot in the rotation from the get go next season.
Lefty Logan Allen was good in 2023 and posted a 5.73 ERA in 2024. He's still only 26, so he shouldn't be abandoned, but he needs to prove himself to earn a full-time spot.
Triston McKenzie looked like an All-Star in 2022, but he was hurt for almost all of 2023 and then pretty awful in 2024, spending nearly half his time in the minors. Will he bounce back next year at age 27?
Joey Cantillo showed some nice flashes down the stretch, but also had a few bad outings. He was only a rookie and saw 38 2/3 innings of action at age 24.
Ben Lively was a nice mid-rotation guy all year, so maybe he's back in the rotation next season. He heads toward his age-33 season with questions, though, such as a low-strikeout rate along with a 1.25 WHIP and 4.66 FIP.
Could and should they bring Boyd back? He was valuable down the stretch, but looks to have several bites from other teams in free agency. The Guardians rarely get into bidding wars thanks to the Dolans' self-imposed payroll constraints.
They don't appear to have any top-level prospect starting pitchers, so if this group isn't enough, they'd need to look outside the organization. Perhaps they'd try to work their organizational magic on someone like Cole Irvin or Andrew Heaney. Would Michael Lorenzen be in their price range and work? Spencer Turnbull?
The front office will be much more meticulous. And while there are always tweaks to every part of a ballclub in the offseason, the Guardians are set up well enough at the positions and in the bullpen to give the majority of their focus to the rotation these next several months.
Then comes spring training and the expectation here is they enter it as the favorites in the AL Central.
