The UEFA Champions League round of 16 draw is keeping the powder dry for this year's edition with SSC Napoli vs. Barcelona and Inter vs. Atletico Madrid arguably the two most enticing matchups in a slate of underrated encounters. There is also Paris Saint-Germain vs. Real Sociedad and RB Leipzig vs. Real Madrid to look forward to despite an absence of showdowns between two giants which looked likely with Inter and PSG both unseeded in this draw. FC Porto vs. Arsenal, PSV Eindhoven vs. Borussia Dortmund, SS Lazio vs. Bayern Munich and FC Copenhagen vs. Manchester City all have their charm, but neither can match the Napoli vs. Barca or Inter vs. Atleti pairings in terms of prestige.
First legs
13 February: Copenhagen vs. City and Leipzig vs. Real.
14 February: PSG vs. Sociedad and Lazio vs. Bayern.
20 February: Inter vs. Atletico and PSV vs. Dortmund.
21 February: Porto vs. Arsenal and Napoli vs. Barcelona.
Second legs
5 March: Sociedad vs. PSG and Bayern vs. Lazio.
6 March: City vs. Copenhagen and Real vs. Leipzig.
12 March: Arsenal vs. Porto and Barca vs. Napoli.
13 March: Atletico vs. Inter and Dortmund vs. PSV.
Confirmed UEL knockout round play-off ties
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That concludes today's draws across the Champions League round of 16, the Europa League knockout round play-offs and the Europa Conference League knockout round play-offs. We look forward to all the games in early 2024, so see you all then!
Sturm Graz vs. Slovan Bratislava
Servette vs. Ludogorets
Union SG vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
Real Betis vs. Dinamo Zagreb
Olympiacos vs. Ferencvaros
Ajax vs. Bodo/Glimt
Molde vs. Legia Warsaw
Maccabi Haifa vs. Gent
Feyenoord vs. Roma
Milan vs. Rennes
Lens vs. Freiburg
Young Boys vs. Sporting CP
Benfica vs. Toulouse
Braga vs. Qarabag
Galatasaray vs. Sparta Praha
Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Marseille
The confirmed matchup days and times are expected no later than 6 p.m. ET so we should know how the round of 16 is looking later today. Logically, the Europa League and Europa Conference League details should also be released around a similar time once logistics have been considered and ironed out.
FC Porto vs. Arsenal
SSC Napoli vs. Barcelona
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Real Sociedad
Inter vs. Atletico Madrid
PSV Eindhoven vs. Borussia Dortmund
Lazio vs. Bayern Munich
FC Copenhagen vs. Manchester City
RB Leipzig vs. Real Madrid
Seeded: Arsenal, Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Manchester City, Real Madrid and Real Sociedad.
Unseeded: Copenhagen, Inter, Lazio, Napoli, PSG, Porto, PSV and RB Leipzig.
No-draws: Arsenal cannot draw PSV, Atleti cannot draw Lazio, Barca cannot draw Porto, Bayern cannot draw Copenhagen or Leipzig, Dortmund cannot draw PSG or Leipzig, City cannot draw Leipzig, Real cannot draw Napoli and Sociedad cannot draw Inter.
Since most of the teams from the same country ended up in matching pots, most of the sides left are eligible to play each other in the round of 16. That is not exactly the case for RB Leipzig, though, who will be limited to just five opponents come Monday -- Arsenal and the Spanish quartet of Atleti, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Real Sociedad.
With an xG that's second to only Manchester City at 15.16, Real Madrid can score with anyone in the world. The issue is that they also allowed an xGA of 7.72 as the defense is their own worst enemy. Against Union Berlin it showed as a bad clearance from David Alaba led to Real conceding a goal but as the attacks that they face get better in the knockout stages, the margin of error will become thinner. Real Madrid will be considered to be one of the contenders for a Champions League title as long as they're in the tournament but these defensive issues could be their undoing if things don't change soon. They have also lost David Alaba to another ACL injury in an incredibly unlucky turn which has now seen them lose three players to the same cruciate ligament injury in just four months -- Thibaut Courtois and Eder Militao being the other two.
Only losing two games in the group stage, Xavi's men were lucky to win the group due to their head-to-head advantage over Porto. Barcelona have the worst loss in Champions League to their name as Royal Antwerp were on a path to be one of the poorest teams ever to compete in the group stage, conceding 17 goals while winning one game and losing five. But with a rotated side, Barcelona couldn't emerge with a victory in Belgium, finishing with 10 men as Sergi Roberto was sent off. Barcelona also dropped an away game to Shakhtar Donetsk in Germany and this is a trend that could be a cause for concern in the round of 16 where Barcelona will have to play a match on the road. Not being a side that scores a ton of goals at home, if Barcelona lose their away leg it could spell a swift exit from the tournament.
Without a doubt, Serie A leaders Inter and French champions PSG are the teams the seeded teams would rather not receive in Monday's draw. The Italian side finished second on a tiebreaker in Group D and have steadily performed throughout the season, meaning a headline-grabbing round of 16 matchup could be in the cards for them. As for the Parisians, they may have been inconsistent throughout the group stage but with the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Zaire-Emery, PSG boast the talent to oust any team from the competition.
For the first time since the 2006-7 season when Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool all won their groups, four teams from the same country won their groups as the Spanish teams emerged triumphantly. Barcelona, Real Madrid, Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid all won their groups while Sevilla couldn't make it five for five, missing out completely on European soccer by finishing bottom of their group. This may not be good history to be part of as Milan won that 2007 Champions League final as the only non-English semifinalist with all the English teams failing to deliver when it mattered most. That's a mantle that Manchester City or Bayern Munich would love to take up if the draw allows them the chance.
The group winners did well to earn their spots, but there are a couple of teams that will likely inspire less fear from the unseeded sides than others -- Dortmund and Real Sociedad. The Germans were the most solid side in a topsy-turvy Group F but have been inconsistent at times this season, which could prevent them from making a deep run in Europe. Real Sociedad, meanwhile, have treated the Champions League like a reprieve from their average campaign so far in La Liga, which could catch up to them depending on the opposition.
While in a way this goes without saying, Manchester City had the best performances in the group stage of any team. They may not have had the strongest group but as Barcelona losing to Royal Antwerp shows, group strength doesn't matter when a team isn't focused. After winning Champions League last season, City now had almost double the expected goal difference compared to the other teams in the tournament. With a difference of 14.18, City had the top xG at 17.25 (which they performed on par to scoring 18 goals) and their expected goals against number of 3.07. While City did allow just seven goals which was the eighth best number in the group stage, some of those goals came from acute angles that wouldn't be expected to be repeated in the knockout stages. If Erling Haaland can get back to top form, there's no reason why Manchester City can't win back to back
Thank you for joining our coverage of the UEFA Champions League round of 16 draw this Monday in Nyon. We are just under an hour away from the draw event starting, but probably just over an hour away from any actual teams being drawn out of the hat. We are here to bring you all of the developments as they happen in Switzerland. For those of you waking up in time for the draw, pour yourself some coffee and settle in to discover what could be an interesting set of matchups with us. We will lead into the draw with a few reminders of the main takeaways from the UCL group stage that was the final in the format as we have known it...
