A rematch between the top two teams from Group F takes place Saturday as Croatia face Morocco in the third-place match of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. The sides battled to a 0-0 draw in their tournament opener, but Morocco finished first in the group with seven points. Both clubs advanced all the way to the semifinals, with Morocco losing to defending champion France and Croatia being stopped by Argentina. The Moroccans already are guaranteed their highest finish in the competition as their previous best was 11th place in 1986 while the Croatians, who were runners-up four years ago, are seeking the second third-place result in their history.
Kickoff at Khalifa International Stadium in Al Rayyan, Qatar is set for 10 a.m. ET. The Croatians are +125 favorites (risk $100 to win $125) on the 90-minute money line in the latest Croatia vs. Morocco odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Moroccans are +200 underdogs. A draw is priced at +250 and the over/under for total goals is set at 2.5. Croatia are -160 to win and Morocco are priced at +120. Before locking in any Morocco vs. Croatia picks, you need to see the World Cup predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's soccer simulation model.
The SportsLine soccer simulation model evaluates a team's offensive and defensive capabilities based on the game situation. Then, it assigns a grade using an expected payout-to-probability ratio. The model was accurate on 56% of all picks during the Champions League group stage and returned more than $1,000 to $100 bettors on its A+ picks. It also entered the World Cup semifinals on a 33-15-4 run on spread picks, returning almost $1,500 for $100 bettors. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has analyzed the Croatia vs. Morocco matchup from every angle and just locked in its picks and World Cup predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Morocco vs. Croatia:
- Morocco vs. Croatia spread: Croatia -0.5 (+125)
- Morocco vs. Croatia over/under: 2.5 goals
- Morocco vs. Croatia 90-minute money line: Croatia +125, Morocco +200, Draw +250
- Morocco vs. Croatia to win: Croatia -160, Morocco +120
- CRO: The Croatians have allowed five goals in the knockout stage after yielding just one in the group stage
- MOR: The Moroccans recorded eight shots (two on target) against Croatia in their group-stage match
- Morocco vs. Croatia picks: See picks here
Why you should back Croatia
The Croatians are accustomed to tight, low-scoring affairs as four of their six matches in the tournament fall into that category. They played to a pair of 0-0 draws during the group stage and each of their first two knockout-stage games required shootouts after 1-1 results. Croatia topped Japan 3-1 on penalty kicks in the Round of 16 and converted all four of their attempts against Brazil in the quarterfinals, with midfielder Nikola Vlasic scoring on their first shot in both contests.
Forward Andrej Kramaric leads Croatia with two non-penalty goals, scoring both in a 4-1 triumph over Canada in the group stage. Veteran winger Ivan Perisic has recorded a tally and two assists in the tournament, giving him six and four in 16 matches over three World Cup appearances. Forward Marko Livaja, midfielder Lovro Majer and striker Bruno Petkovic each have scored once in the competition, with Majer also converting a penalty kick against Brazil.
Why you should back Morocco
With the exception of their loss to France, the Moroccans have been superb defensively for months. The club posted clean sheets in five of six matches across all competitions prior to the World Cup, then allowed just an own goal over its first five games of the tournament. No team that advanced to the knockout stage has permitted fewer tallies than Morocco, with only Brazil giving up the same amount (three).
Leading Morocco in scoring is Youssef En-Nesyri, who has recorded two goals in six matches. The 25-year-old forward, who scored in his only appearance during the 2018 tournament, notched the decisive goal in the team's 2-1 victory against Canada in the group stage and netted the lone tally in the 1-0 quarterfinal triumph over Portugal. Midfielder Hakim Ziyech has registered a goal and an assist for the Moroccans and also converted his penalty kick during their shootout win versus Spain in the Round of 16.
How to make Croatia vs. Morocco picks
The model has taken an in-depth look at the Morocco vs. Croatia match from every angle and is leaning Under on the total. It also has a pick on one side that has all the value. You can only get the model's World Cup picks at SportsLine.
Where does all the betting value lie for the Croatia vs. Morocco matchup on Saturday? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side to back in the Morocco vs. Croatia third-place match on Saturday, all from the model that hit 56% of its Champions League picks, and find out.