The Boise State Broncos hope experience wins out Saturday when they take on the UNLV Rebels in the 2023 Mountain West Championship Game at Allegiant Stadium. The Broncos (7-5, 6-2) are making their seventh MWC time game appearances, and have won it three times, while the Rebels (9-2, 6-2) are making their first. The Broncos have won six straight against the Rebels, the most recent meeting a 38-13 victory in Las Vegas in 2019. The matchup was set by computer rankings after San Jose State also finished 6-2 in conference games. UNLV lost to SJSU 37-31 last Saturday, while the Broncos beat Air Force 27-19 the previous day.

Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET in Las Vegas. The latest Boise State vs. UNLV odds list the Broncos as 2.5-point favorites, and the over/under for total points is set at 61.5, according to the SportsLine consensus. Before making any UNLV vs. Boise State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a stunning profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It finished the 2023 regular season a profitable 13-9 on top-rated spread picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Boise State vs. UNLV and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine to see the model's CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for UNLV vs. Boise State: 

  • Boise State vs. UNLV spread: Broncos -2.5
  • Boise State vs. UNLV over/under: 61.5 points
  • Boise State vs. UNLV money line: Broncos -140, Rebels +118
  • BSU: Is 10-5-2 ATS in conference games the past two seasons.
  • UNLV: Is 9-7 ATS in MWC matchups over the past two seasons.
  • Boise State vs. UNLV picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Boise State vs. UNLV live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why Boise State can cover

The Broncos have covered the spread in four of their past five to go 6-4-2 ATS this season. Their run game will be a handful for the Rebels, as BSU averages 207.5 rushing yards per game, second-best in the Sun Belt Conference. Running back Ashton Jeanty leads the conference in all-purpose yards, rushing for 1,113 (6.1 per carry) and adding 536 receiving yards (14.5 per catch) despite missing two games. The sophomore has scored 18 touchdowns.   

Boise State averages 437 yards, second-most in the SBC, and 32 points per game (fourth). George Holani (530 yards) and quarterback Taylen Green (346) also contribute to the run game. Green threw for 1,526 yards in the two-quarterback system, and with freshman Maddux Madsen out for the season, the sophomore will have full control. Green has accounted for 16 touchdowns, and receiver Eric McAllister has scored five times and has 837 yards (18.7 per catch). See which team to pick here.

Why UNLV can cover

UNLV has the second-best mark against the spread in FBS at 10-2, with six of their victories by at least 17 points. The Rebls had won eight of their previous nine before losing to red-hot San Jose State. Boise is 1-5 ATS in MWC title games and finished second to the Spartans in the East. The Broncos have the Mountain West's worst pass defense, a unit that allows 255 yards per game through the air. That could be a problem against a UNLV offense led by Jayden Maiava.    

The freshman quarterback has big-play ability, completing at least one pass longer than 50 yards in six of nine starts. He has at least 225 passing yards in seven straight games and has 2,646 and 14 TD passes for the season. Ricky White leads the MWC with 109 receiving yards per game and has scored seven touchdowns. Jai'Den Thomas has scored 12 of the team's 36 rushing TDs, and Jacob De Jesus is third in the nation in punt return average (16.8 yards). See which team to pick here.

How to make Boise State vs. UNLV picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 57 points. The model also says one side of the spread is hitting nearly 60% of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine

So who wins UNLV vs. Boise State, and which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has notched a profit of well over $2,000 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.