Fantasy Football Week 16 Running Back Preview: Injuries we are watching, DFS plays, and more
Everything you need to know about the running back position for Fantasy Football in Week 16
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2 min read
It has been an uneven season at the running back position, but if you have TreVeyon Henderson, Travis Etienne, or Kenneth Gainwell, you are probably feeling pretty good about yourself. They are definitely trending the right direction. RJ Harvey was as well before his Week 15 injury. He is one of three injured backs we will be watching closely heading into Week 16.
Harvey left Week 15 with a rib injury, and like Zonovan Knight and Devin Neal, he is questionable for Week 16 as of Tuesday morning. Thankfully, if the ribs are okay to play, we probably don't have as much reinjury risk as we would with a hamstring. In other words, if Harvey goes, he is a start, even in a difficult matchup against Jacksonville. If Harvey is out, like we are currently projecting, I would expect a committee approach led by Jaleel McLaughlin. As of Tuesday morning, I have McLaughlin projected for 16 touches and 11.5 full PPR Fantasy points. That would make him a flex, not a starter, but someone who should be added off waivers.
Knight also left in Week 15, and we got some of the best clarity we have had in this backfield since James Conner's injury. Michael carter played 79.4% of the offensive snaps, handled 66.7% of the team's rush attempts, and had a 10% target share. This week, the Cardinals face a Falcons defense that has given up 21.8 PPR FPPG to running backs. If Knight is out, Carter could score you 15 Fantasy points and be a top 20 running back. He is likely the best waiver wire add at any position unless we get news that Knight is okay before waivers run.
Finally, the Saints lost Devin Neal after he scored a touchdown in Week 15. This is a hamstring injury, which makes me extremely worried even if he tries to play this week. The Saints are home favorites, but the Jets just held Travis Etienne to 2.67 yards per carry. View Neal as a low-end RB2 if he tries to go. If he's out, this will be another committee with Audric Estime and Evan Hull splitting duties. We would not want to start either one.
Now let's get to the rest of the Week 16 RB Preview:
Week 16 RB Preview
RB Preview
Numbers to know
- 3.43 -- The Lions are giving up 3.43 catches per game to running backs, the second-lowest mark in the league. Aaron Rodgers has thrown to running backs at the third-highest rate. This is a fascinating matchup.
- 21 -- TreVeyon Henderson is averaging 21 PPR FPPG since Week 9. Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, and De'Von Achane are the only running backs averaging more in that stretch.
- 5.89 -- The Giants are giving up a league-worst 5.89 yards per carry to running backs. That's more than half a yard more per carry than the lowly Bengals.
- 82 -- Cardinals running backs have caught 82 passes this season, nearly six per game. Even if Michael Carter only gets half of that, it helps his floor and his ceiling.
- 0 -- Bucky Irving has zero rush attempts inside the five-yard line this year.
- 41.7% -- Kenneth Walker played 41.7% of the offensive snaps in Week 15, his lowest total since Week 6. He has 47 yards from scrimmage in his last two games combined.
RB Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Week 16 Adds (RB Preview)
Bam Knight averaged 10 PPR FPPG in his time as the starter, and I would not be surprised if Carter sees a larger share of the snaps and work than Knight did. Last week, Carter was RB19 against the Texans with 18 touches and 13.4 PPR Fantasy points. That is very close to what I project for him this week if Knight is out.
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This is a bad matchup, and we aren't sure yet that Harvey will miss Week 16. So don't get too excited. McLaughlin has 10 games in his career with at least 10 touches. In those games, he has averaged 10.2 PPR Fantasy points, but he only actually scored double-digits in three of 10 games. He is a flex at best if Harvey is out.
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RB Preview
DFS Plays
Top DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Gibbs is the third-highest-priced running back on the main slate this week and my number one running back for the week. He is at home against a fairly mediocre Steelers defense that may still be without T.J. Watt. His Lions have an implied total of 29. This is the guy you want to pay up for in DFS this week.
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Contrarian DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Marks left Week 15 early and had the whole fumble recovery TD drama as well. His coach says he could have come back into the game. For that reason, we are ranking him this week, in a home game, as a 14.5-point favorite, with an implied total of 26. This is the kind of guy who should be chalk, but he just was, and it didn't pay off. I expect Fantasy managers will look somewhere else in DFS this week, which makes Marks a great contrarian play.
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RB Preview
Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 16 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 16. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
