Week 6 was another big week for chalk plays. If you had the Los Angeles Rams in your lineup, you probably did pretty well. Not only is Cooper Kupp the highest scoring wide receiver in Fantasy this season, but Darrell Henderson is tied as the RB9 in PPR. What we love about the Rams so far is that their offense is mostly concentrated between Kupp, Henderson, Woods with a little Tyler Higbee mixed in. It makes projecting them a lot easier than, say, the Arizona Cardinals who have five pass catchers between a 15% and 21% target share. Oh, and they just added Zach Ertz, too.

Week 7 is interesting as it's another week with just 10 games on the main slate. We have two games with a total over 50 points and six more over 46 points. What makes this week especially fun is we have three games with double digit spreads. We mostly like competitive games for DFS or at least ones where we can somewhat predict the game flow. If a team is up three touchdowns heading into the fourth quarter, we risk backups entering the game like we saw in the Bengals-Lions contest a week ago. With all that being said, where do we start when constructing lineups in Week 7?

Which star to pay up for?

I believe the main decision point in Week 7 is deciding which player to pay up for. Of course, you make a lineup built with mid-tier talent, but I'd imagine most want at least one of Derrick Henry, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, and Tyreek Hill in their lineups. Let's start with the "Big Dog" Henry. Since Week 2 he's averaging 34.88 DraftKings points and has scored exactly three touchdowns in three of those games. If you've watched any of those games, you already know that Henry is a freak. Humans that big should not be able to move as fast as he does. However, he's always unique on DraftKings because he doesn't catch many passes and is so touchdown reliant. With that being said, he can literally score from anywhere on the field. On Fantasy Football Today DFS, Sia Nejad had this to say about Henry:

"Let's say I make 20 lineups. Only five of them are going to feature Derrick Henry. Listen, he's going to score a touchdown or two. I'm just going to hope he doesn't break off that long run with a couple of touchdowns associated with it ... I don't mind fading him because it's just so prohibitive to put him in your lineups. I'm more interested in playing [Patrick] Mahomes with Tyreek Hill."

I can't blame Sia, either. Mahomes and Hill are going up against a Titans secondary that's been bad all season and just lost another starting cornerback in Caleb Farley. With Adams and Kupp, you have the highest and second highest target shares in the NFL, respectively. Matthew Stafford has his revenge narrative against the Lions plus the Rams are sixth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation. It wouldn't surprise me if they're still slinging it around up multiple touchdowns in the fourth quarter. With Adams, he's facing a defense that has allowed the most receptions and second most receiving yards to wide receivers this season. All have a strong case to be rostered this week but I'd rank it Kupp, Adams, Hill, Henry on DraftKings.

Which stacks should we target?

Your answer to the first question might answer the second one here. Chances are if you're using Hill or Kupp, you're tying them to their quarterback in Mahomes or Stafford. You can probably get away with playing Kupp without Stafford but I wouldn't use Hill without Mahomes. The Chiefs-Titans game has a total of 57 points, by far the highest on the slate. If Hill is going off, that likely means Mahomes is, too, in a competitive environment.

I mentioned the revenge narrative earlier with Stafford but he's not the only one this week. DeAndre Hopkins is facing the Houston Texans this week for the first time since he was traded last year. I also mentioned how tough the Cardinals are to figure out because they spread the ball out so much. I'm throwing all of that out the window this week. The Texans are currently allowing the fifth fewest Fantasy points to wide receivers but that's misleading as teams have just been able to run all over them or throw to the tight end. According to PFF's WR/CB matchups, Hopkins has the fourth best matchup this week. While the Cardinals are spreading the ball around, Hopkins still leads the team with a 21% target share and 10 red zone targets. Hopkins is a fiery dude who plays with a chip on his shoulder so I'm willing to bet he finds the end zone at least once this week, maybe twice.

Here are my favorite game stacks in Week 7:

How should you fill the rest of your lineup out?

Play the best plays!

Once you decide who you're paying up for and which game you're looking to stack, you'll need to fill in the rest of your lineup. If you squint hard enough, you can find value at both running back and wide receiver. What's interesting about value is that it comes in different forms. I can tell you to play a $4,400 Devonta Freeman because he's cheap but bleh, who wants that? 

While they're more expensive than your typical value plays, you should run it back with both Darrel and Darrell again this week. Darrel Williams is $5,800 on DraftKings and coming off a game with 72% of the snaps, 24 touches, and two touchdowns from inside the five-yard line. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire out and a massive game total, Williams is a no-brainer. Henderson has crept up to $6,600 but I'd argue his salary should still be $1,000 more. His 79% target share is third among running backs this season and he has at least 16 touches in each game. The Rams are also a massive home favorite in a great matchup for running backs.

Here are my favorite mid-tier values at running back:

When I first looked at salaries for the week, Calvin Ridley and Chris Godwin were the first two names that stood out to me. Ridley has been a bit of a letdown based on expectations but he's still leading the team with a 27% target share and eight red zone targets. He gets the Dolphins this week, a defense that has allowed the third most Fantasy points to wide receivers. Godwin is just too cheap. He hasn't had a breakout game yet but he's been consistent and the Bucs are first in pass rate over expectation. It's clear Tom Brady is looking to shatter records this season. With Antonio Brown now ruled out, I expect Godwin's targets to be on the rise in Week 7. Beware, however, as he will be a popular play.  

Here are my favorite values at wide receiver at Week 7:

  • Calvin Ridley, $6,600
  • A.J. Brown, $6,300
  • Brandin Cooks, $6,000
  • Chris Godwin, $5,900
  • Tee Higgins, $4,900
  • Mecole Hardman, $4,300
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown, $4,100
  • Rashod Bateman, $3,400

Here's a single-entry GPP lineup I've already built out for this week:

  • Kyler Murray, $8,500
  • Darrell Henderson, $6,600
  • Darrel Williams, $5,800
  • DeAndre Hopkins, $7,700
  • Brandin Cooks, $6,000
  • Rashod Bateman, $3,400
  • Ricky Seals-Jones, $3,700
  • Tee Higgins, $4,900
  • Patriots DST, $3,400

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