The San Diego Padres (37-43) will try to snap a four-game losing streak and avoid a series sweep when they face the Pittsburgh Pirates (37-42) on Thursday afternoon. San Diego lost the final two games of its series against Washington before dropping the first two games of this three-game set. Pittsburgh had lost 12 of 13 games prior to winning the first two games of this series by a combined score of 16-5.  

The first pitch is set for 12:35 p.m. ET. San Diego is listed at -205 on the money line (risk $205 to win $100) in the latest Pirates vs. Padres odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The over/under for total runs scored is 8.5. Before making any Padres vs. Pirates picks, be sure to check out the latest MLB predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons. It has opened the 2023 MLB season on a 36-28 roll on all-top rated MLB picks, including a 9-2 mark on top-rated run-line picks (+450). Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.  

Now, the model has set its sights on Padres vs. Pirates and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB betting lines and trends for Pirates vs. Padres:

  • Padres vs. Pirates money line: Padres -205, Pirates +175
  • Padres vs. Pirates run line: Padres -1.5 (-115)
  • Padres vs. Pirates over/under: 8.5 runs
  • SD: Padres have gone Over in seven of their last 10 road games at Pittsburgh
  • PIT: Pirates are 4-1 in their last five games against NL West opponents
  • Padres vs. Pirates picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why you should back the Pirates

Pittsburgh has turned things around this week, winning three of its last four games to begin climbing back into contention in the NL Central. The Pirates outscored the Padres 16-5 in the first two games of this series, sparked by a trio of rookies who have all made their big-league debuts in the last 10 days. Henry Davis, Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo went a combined 4 of 10 at the plate on Wednesday, driving in two runs and scoring three more. 

Rookie pitcher Luis Ortiz will be on the mound for Pittsburgh following arguably the best start of his career. He allowed one run across eight strong innings against Miami last Friday, helping his team snap a 10-game skid. San Diego has lost four straight games and seven of its last nine, making the Padres an unappetizing team to back at short odds. See which team to back here.

Why you should back the Padres

While Pittsburgh's rookies showed life on Wednesday, it is difficult to project consistency from the young trio. They are being forced into action as the Pirates deal with several key injuries, including leading batters Ke'Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds, who are both sidelined due to back problems. The Pirates have also been playing without Oneil Cruz since early April, giving them a shorthanded lineup on Thursday. 

San Diego ace Joe Musgrove will be on the mound in this game, making it the perfect time for the Padres to snap out of their losing skid. The former Pittsburgh starter is 6-2 with a 3.88 ERA this season, winning three straight starts. He has allowed a combined six runs across his last 19 innings, giving him momentum as he prepares to face an injury-riddled lineup. See which team to back here.

How to make Pirates vs. Padres picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 8.9 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all of the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Padres vs. Pirates, and which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has gone 36-28 on its top-rated MLB picks, and find out.