We've been talking quite a bit about no-hitters lately but not all that much about perfect games. That makes sense, given that no-hitters are much more common than perfect games, and that's especially the case lately.
If you needed a reminder of that, then look no further than the two recent no-hitters HOT-linked above. In the case of Joe Musgrove, the only thing that kept his no-no from being a perfect game was a fourth inning HBP. Carlos Rodón, meantime, had perfection through 25 batters, but with one out in the ninth Roberto Pérez was nicked by a Rodón slider and awarded first base. It's hard, you know.
Indeed, as of Monday it's been eight years, eight months, and four days since Felix Hernandez graced us with the last perfect game at the MLB level. Over that same span, we've seen 30 no-hitters, including two during the abbreviated 2020 season and, as noted, two already in the still-in-diapers 2021 campaign. In all, we've clocked more than 300 no-hitters across the sprawl of major league history but just 23 perfect games.
Speaking of the latter, manifestly superior achievement, here's a rundown of those 23 perfectos and how long we had to wait between each one:
| Pitcher, team | Opponent | Date | Time since previous perfect game |
|---|---|---|---|
Lee Richmond, Worcester Worcesters | Cleveland Blues | June 12, 1880 | - |
John Montgomery Ward, Providence Grays | Buffalo Bisons | June 17, 1880 | 5 days |
Cy Young, Boston Americans | Philadelphia Athletics | May 5, 1904 | 23 years, 10 months, 23 days |
Addie Joss, Cleveland Naps | Oct. 2, 1908 | 4 years, 4 months, 27 days | |
Charlie Robertson, Chicago White Sox | April 30, 1922 | 13 years, 6 months, 28 days | |
Don Larsen, New York Yankees | Brooklyn Dodgers | Oct. 8, 1956 | 34 years, 5 months, 8 days |
Jim Bunning, Philadelphia Phillies | June 21, 1964 | 7 years, 8 months, 13 days | |
Sandy Koufax, Los Angeles Dodgers | Sept. 9, 1965 | 1 year, 2 months, 19 days | |
Catfish Hunter, Oakland Athletics | May 8, 1968 | 2 years, 7 months, 29 days | |
Len Barker, Cleveland Indians | May 15, 1981 | 13 years, 7 days | |
Mike Witt, California Angels | Sept. 30, 1984 | 3 years, 4 months, 15 days | |
Tom Browning, Cincinnati Reds | Los Angeles Dodgers | Sept. 16, 1988 | 3 years, 11 months, 17 days |
Dennis Martínez, Montreal Expos | Los Angeles Dodgers | July 28, 1991 | 2 years, 10 months, 12 days |
Kenny Rogers, Texas Rangers | California Angels | July 28, 1994 | 3 years |
David Wells, New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | May 17, 1998 | 3 years, 9 months, 20 days |
David Cone, New York Yankees | Montreal Expos | July 18, 1999 | 1 year, 2 months, 2 days |
Randy Johnson, Arizona Diamondbacks | May 18, 2004 | 4 years, 10 months, 1 day | |
Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox | July 23, 2009 | 5 years, 2 months, 6 days | |
Dallas Braden, Oakland Athletics | Tampa Bay Rays | May 9, 2010 | 9 months, 17 days |
Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies | Florida Marlins | May 29. 2010 | 21 days |
Philip Humber, Chicago White Sox | April 21, 2012 | 1 year, 10 months, 24 days | |
Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants | June 13, 2012 | 1 month, 24 days | |
Félix Hernández, Seattle Mariners | Tampa Bay Rays | Aug. 15, 2012 | 2 months, 2 days |
Yes, those first two 19th-century perfectos are counted since they occurred in the National League, but they should really be dismissed since the rules of play were significantly different in 1880. Whatever your druthers about that particular matter, we've had just 21 perfect games in the modern era -- i.e., since 1903, when the first AL-NL World Series was played. Not meeting the official definition of a perfect game in remorseless fashion are Harvey Haddix of the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 26, 1959 and Pedro Martinez of the Montreal Expos on June 3, 1995. In Martinez's case, he lost his perfect game in the 10th, and Haddix lost his in the 13th (!). That's because the rules stipulate that a pitcher is credited with a perfect game only if he prevents any baserunners for the entire game, even if said game goes beyond nine innings. Had Haddix's and Martinez's teammates provided them with a single run of support during the first nine innings, they'd be on the list above. Alas and alack, they are not.
Anyhow, presently we're enduring the longest perfect game drought since the early 1980s and the third-longest since 1900. As with anything so rare, the clusters that we saw from 2009-2012 and the radio silence we've had since then can best explained by randomness. That said, we've had quite a few close calls since 2012. Including Rodón's recent masterpiece, eight perfect game bids since 2012 have been lost in the ninth inning. That's a bit of a glut, as the previous 15 years saw just five such near-misses. Also, nine times in MLB history we've seen starting pitchers removed with a perfect game intact after five innings, and three of those have happened since 2015 (most recently Blake Snell in 2018). On yet another level, while we've seen batting average trend downward throughout recent history, which obviously helps explain all the no-hitters, we've seen walk rates and hit batsmen trend upward. That works against the perfecto.
There's no one obvious cause for this ongoing semi-drought, but it's a series of gentle nudges in the wrong direction plus a dusting of bad luck. Obviously, someone will break through at some point, and -- unlike the "ubiquitous to the point of tedium" no-hitter -- it'll be worth all the laurel wreaths we can find when it does happen again.
