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After a wild 24 hours in the betting markets, things have apparently settled and Jabari Smith now seems destined to be the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. I do not believe it's what I would do if I were running Orlando's franchise because I'd likely take a big swing on Chet Holmgren, i.e., the prospect I think has the highest upside in this draft. But that doesn't mean taking Smith is ridiculous and/or destined to be a mistake. There's a lot to like there and, at worst, it's hard to imagine him being anything other than a switchable forward and high-level shooter who produces in the NBA for more than a decade, health permitting.

I like him a lot.

But, yeah, I'm still more of a believer in Holmgren actually becoming the star from this draft because of his unique skill-set that most have faith in but some find filled with red flags. Are there red flags? Sure, I guess. His body is the biggest concern. But worrying about Holmgren's body more than you drool about his elite rim-protecting and play-making and shot-making ability at 7-foot-1 seems like a mistake to me. He's not a sure thing, I acknowledge. But if he becomes what his biggest supporters believe he can become, Holmgren should — maybe not immediately, but in time — emerge as the prize of the 2022 NBA Draft that is now just hours from unfolding.

Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
Auburn • 6'10" / 220 lbs
Projected Team
Orlando
PROSPECT RNK
2nd
POSITION RNK
1st
PPG
16.9
RPG
7.4
APG
2
3P%
42%
Smith still needs to develop in lots of ways but is already a great shooter and switchable defender who plays with undeniable energy. He's not the guy I'd take first in this draft — but it's a sensible pick for an Orlando franchise that needs to add talent and shooting.
Round 1 - Pick 2
Gonzaga • 7'0" / 195 lbs
Projected Team
Oklahoma City
PROSPECT RNK
1st
POSITION RNK
1st
PPG
14.1
RPG
9.9
APG
1.9
3P%
39%
The concerns about Holmgren's slight frame are legitimate — but he's such a unique prospect with incredible potential that Oklahoma City should be uncomfortable passing on this 7-foot rim-protector who can also bounce it like a guard and reliably make 3-pointers. He has the highest ceiling in this draft and, for that reason, should go no lower than here.
Round 1- Pick 3
Duke • 6'10" / 250 lbs
Projected Team
Houston
PROSPECT RNK
3rd
POSITION RNK
2nd
PPG
17.2
RPG
7.8
APG
3.2
3P%
33.8%
Banchero is probably the safest option at the top of this draft on account of his floor being so high. He's a big, strong and skilled forward who could be an incredible building block in Houston alongside Jalen Green.
Round 1 - Pick 4
Purdue • 6'4" / 195 lbs
Projected Team
Sacramento
PROSPECT RNK
4th
POSITION RNK
1st
PPG
17.3
RPG
4.9
APG
3.1
3P%
35.8%
Ivey is an explosive athlete who plays big and is capable of attacking the rim in a variety of ways. There are questions about whether he's actually going to be a point guard in the NBA, but that shouldn't matter much to a Sacramento franchise that should simply prioritize the best prospect available.
Round 1 - Pick 5
Iowa • 6'8" / 225 lbs
Projected Team
Detroit
PROSPECT RNK
5th
POSITION RNK
3rd
PPG
23.5
RPG
8.7
APG
1.5
3P%
39.8%
Murray is a switchable big who can guard in space and consistently make shots from the perimeter. What he does, at his size, is perfectly suited for the modern NBA and would fit well with a Detroit franchise trying to return to respectability with Cade Cunningham as the centerpiece.
Round 1 - Pick 6
Arizona • 6'6" / 205 lbs
Projected Team
Indiana
PROSPECT RNK
7th
POSITION RNK
3rd
PPG
17.7
RPG
5.6
APG
2.5
3P%
36.9%
Mathurin was the star of Arizona's team that won the Pac-12 and earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The 6-6 wing is an impressive athlete and above-average shooter who would be a nice addition for an Indiana franchise pivoting to a rebuild.
Round 1 - Pick 7
Dyson Daniels SG
G League Ignite • 6'8" / 200 lbs
Projected Team
Portland
PROSPECT RNK
8th
POSITION RNK
4th
PPG
11.3
RPG
5.9
APG
4.4
3P%
25.5%
Daniels isn't quite the prospect previous Ignite stars have been but is still a fascinating guard with size who can play with or without the ball. His jumper, at this point, is the biggest area of concern but shouldn't prevent him from going in the top 10.
Round 1 - Pick 8
Kentucky • 6'5" / 198 lbs
Projected Team
New Orleans
PROSPECT RNK
6th
POSITION RNK
2nd
Even though he enrolled in January and was eligible to compete, Sharpe never played at Kentucky in part because the people around him wanted to protect his status as a projected top-10 pick. Mission accomplished. it's hard to imagine the explosive athlete going much lower than this considering he's a gifted scorer with the physical tools to be a disruptive defender on the wing in New Orleans.
Round 1 - Pick 9
Memphis • 6'11" / 250 lbs
Projected Team
San Antonio
PROSPECT RNK
14th
POSITION RNK
2nd
PPG
12
RPG
8.1
APG
1.3
FG%
59.7%
Duren isn't really the type of floor-spacing big franchises prefer these days, but he's such a physical specimen and great athlete that there's probably a place for him in the top 10 of this draft. At worst, he should be a terrific rim-running and rim-protecting center who alters shots, dunks everything and is good enough guarding in space.
Round 1 - Pick 10
Kansas • 6'6" / 215 lbs
Projected Team
Washington
PROSPECT RNK
10th
POSITION RNK
5th
PPG
18.8
RPG
5.1
APG
1.6
3P%
40.9%
I'm higher on Agbaji than most simply because I don't understand what's not to like about a 6-5 athlete who is a plus-defender on the wing and excellent 3-point shooter. Once you get past the top-tier prospects in this draft, the Kansas All-American makes as much sense as anybody and would provide Bradley Beal with a new teammate equipped to help from Day One.
Round 1 - Pick 11
Wisconsin • 6'5" / 194 lbs
Projected Team
New York
PROSPECT RNK
15th
POSITION RNK
3rd
PPG
19.7
RPG
8.2
APG
2.1
3P%
30.6%
Davis went from a mostly anonymous power-conference player to a candidate for national player of the year in his sophomore season at Wisconsin. An ankle injury limited him down the stretch, but he showed enough as a shot creator and scorer before that to justify his status as a projected lottery pick.
Round 1 - Pick 12
Ousmane Dieng SF
France • 6'10" / 205 lbs
Projected Team
Oklahoma City
PROSPECT RNK
16th
POSITION RNK
4th
Dieng is a long and skilled prospect who still needs to develop but is worth a serious look this deep in the lottery. He might not contribute immediately but definitely projects as an interesting long-term investment for an Oklahoma City franchise loading up on them.
Round 1 - Pick 13
Baylor • 6'9" / 230 lbs
Projected Team
Charlotte
PROSPECT RNK
11th
POSITION RNK
4th
PPG
9.2
RPG
6.4
APG
1.8
3P%
29.6%
Sochan is the rare sub-100 high school recruit who should be a one-and-done top-20 pick. His ability to guard multiple positions, and his potential as a shooter, are among the reasons he's a tantalizing prospect and one of the most versatile players available in this draft.
Round 1 - Pick 14
Duke • 6'6" / 222 lbs
Projected Team
Cleveland
PROSPECT RNK
9th
POSITION RNK
1st
PPG
10.4
RPG
3.9
APG
1
3P%
44.7%
It took Griffin a little while to get comfortable at Duke because of a preseason knee injury that seemed to affect his athleticism. But the five-star high school recruit, who is the son of NBA assistant coach Adrian Griffin, eventually showed glimpses of why he's a lottery talent, mostly by proving to be a fantastic 3-point shooter who made 44.7% of his 4.1 attempts from beyond the arc per game.
Round 1 - Pick 15
Duke • 7'2" / 242 lbs
Projected Team
Charlotte
PROSPECT RNK
17th
POSITION RNK
3rd
PPG
11.2
RPG
7.4
APG
0.9
FG%
72.1%
Williams, like fellow projected lottery pick Duren, is more of a traditional big than a modern big. But any franchise in need of a rim-protector and lob-catcher — like Charlotte, obviously — would have to consider him at this point in the draft.
Round 1 - Pick 16
Ohio State • 6'5" / 195 lbs
Projected Team
Atlanta
PROSPECT RNK
13th
POSITION RNK
2nd
PPG
13.7
RPG
3.6
APG
2
3P%
41.6%
Branham is a shooting guard with good size and great length who really flourished in the second half of the season. The one-and-done standout became the Big Ten's Freshman of the Year and would fit nicely beside Trae Young in Atlanta.
Round 1 - Pick 17
Santa Clara • 6'6" / 209 lbs
Projected Team
Houston
PROSPECT RNK
21st
POSITION RNK
6th
PPG
18
RPG
4.4
APG
4.2
3P%
39.6%
Williams probably helped himself more in the pre-draft process than any other prospect available. He's a 6-6 wing who shot 39.6% from 3-point range for a Santa Clara team that finished third in the West Coast Conference.
Round 1 - Pick 18
Auburn • 7'1" / 256 lbs
Projected Team
Chicago
PROSPECT RNK
30th
POSITION RNK
4th
PPG
11.4
RPG
8.1
APG
0.9
3P%
20%
Kessler was arguably the best defensive player in college basketball this past season while averaging 4.6 blocks per game for an Auburn team that spent part of the season ranked No. 1. He's an incredible rim-protector with the potential to also develop into a comfortable perimeter shooter.
Round 1 - Pick 19
Kentucky • 6'2" / 196 lbs
Projected Team
Minnesota
PROSPECT RNK
12th
POSITION RNK
1st
PPG
12.5
RPG
3.5
APG
3.9
3P%
35%
Washington mostly played off the ball in his one season at Kentucky but projects as a lead guard in the NBA. Ankle injuries limited him in the second half of the season — but the one-and-done Wildcat showed enough before he was hampered to solidify his status as a top-20 pick.
Round 1 - Pick 20
LSU • 6'8" / 216 lbs
Projected Team
San Antonio
PROSPECT RNK
19th
POSITION RNK
6th
PPG
16.9
RPG
6.6
APG
1
3P%
35.9%
Eason was a breakout star at LSU after transferring following a so-so first season at Cincinnati. He's a versatile frontcourt option who can guard multiple positions and punish defenses in transition opportunities.
Round 1 - Pick 21
Notre Dame • 6'4" / 187 lbs
Projected Team
Denver
PROSPECT RNK
26th
POSITION RNK
8th
PPG
14.4
RPG
3.7
APG
2.4
3P%
30.3%
Adding a young athlete to the backcourt wouldn't be the worst idea for a Denver franchise that needs to provide two-time MVP Nikola Jokic with more help. Wesley didn't finish his one season at Notre Dame with consistently good performances but his upside is such that he's worth a selection somewhere in the 20s.
  From Utah Jazz
Round 1 - Pick 22
Tennessee • 6'0" / 172 lbs
Projected Team
Memphis
PROSPECT RNK
22nd
POSITION RNK
2nd
PPG
13.9
RPG
3.2
APG
4.7
3P%
38.3%
The possibility of Tyus Jones leaving via free agency might have Memphis in the market for a point guard. At this point in the draft, the best option would be Chandler — the Memphis-raised product who has won at every level and already possesses a close relationship with Grizzlies' star Ja Morant.
Round 1 - Pick 23
Arizona • 6'7" / 195 lbs
Projected Team
Philadelphia
PROSPECT RNK
24th
POSITION RNK
5th
PPG
8
RPG
4.8
APG
3.9
3P%
36.4%
Terry wasn't overwhelmingly productive in his two seasons at Arizona — but he showed enough, as a guard with great size, to place himself on NBA radars. He needs to develop in a lot of ways but would be an interesting fit for a Philadelphia franchise trying to win big in Joel Embiid's prime.
Round 1 - Pick 24
Ohio State • 6'7" / 243 lbs
Projected Team
Milwaukee
PROSPECT RNK
18th
POSITION RNK
5th
PPG
19.4
RPG
7.9
APG
2.5
3P%
37.4%
Liddell is the type of player who could help Milwaukee's core — a core highlighted, of course, by two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo — theoretically compete for another title next season. He's undersized but effective and ready to contribute.
Round 1 - Pick 25
Jaden Hardy SG
G League Ignite • 6'4" / 190 lbs
Projected Team
San Antonio
PROSPECT RNK
23rd
POSITION RNK
7th
Hardy didn't do much over the past year to help his draft stock — but he's still a first-round talent capable of developing into a special scorer. Being drafted by a strong-cultured franchise like San Antonio would probably be the best thing for the trajectory of his career.
Round 1 - Pick 26
MarJon Beauchamp SF
G League Ignite • 6'7" / 197 lbs
Projected Team
Houston
PROSPECT RNK
45th
POSITION RNK
13th
Beauchamp is a 6-6 wing with a 6-11 wingspan who should be the third player from the G-League Ignite taken in the first round of this draft. The fact that he shot poorly from 3-point range this season is a concern, but he does enough other things that impact winning to merit a guaranteed contract.
Round 1 - Pick 27
Duke • 6'5" / 217 lbs
Projected Team
Miami
PROSPECT RNK
29th
POSITION RNK
8th
PPG
13.4
RPG
5.3
APG
4.4
3P%
41.3%
Moore developed well in his three years at Duke and ultimately established himself as a high-level wing who can guard multiple positions and reliably make 3-pointers. He's the type of prospect Miami (and most well-run franchises) value.
Round 1 - Pick 28
Kansas • 6'7" / 209 lbs
Projected Team
Golden St.
PROSPECT RNK
40th
POSITION RNK
13th
PPG
14.1
RPG
6.5
APG
2.8
3P%
38.6%
Braun is a wing with size who can guard his position, reliably make jumpers and finish in transition. He's the type of prospect who could flourish with a Golden State franchise that has created a championship culture built to last.
Round 1 - Pick 29
Michigan • 6'8" / 205 lbs
Projected Team
Memphis
PROSPECT RNK
32nd
POSITION RNK
9th
PPG
10.1
RPG
4
APG
1.4
3P%
35.5%
Houstan declined an invitation to the NBA Combine, at which point speculation grew that he might have a first-round promise. His lone season at Michigan was largely underwhelming — but he's still a talented wing with size in possession of an encouraging jumper, which automatically makes him a legitimate first-round option.
Round 1 - Pick 30
Duke • 6'4" / 224 lbs
Projected Team
Denver
PROSPECT RNK
33rd
POSITION RNK
9th
PPG
11.5
RPG
3.4
APG
2.7
3P%
31.2%
Keels struggled as a shooter at Duke but has showed signs previously that suggest it might not be the weakness some believe. Either way, he's a super-strong combo guard who could work well in a Denver backcourt that might soon be without Monte Morris.