The Boston Celtics can earn a berth in the Eastern Conference Semifinals on Tuesday evening. The Celtics host the Atlanta Hawks for Game 5 of a 2023 NBA playoff first-round series, with Boston leading the best-of-seven clash by a 3-1 margin. Boston won Game 4 on the road on Sunday, with Atlanta needing to win at TD Garden to stay alive in the postseason. The Hawks will also operate without Dejounte Murray, with the standout guard missing Game 5 as a result of a suspension following an incident with a game official on Sunday.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as a 13-point favorite at home, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 231 in the latest Hawks vs. Celtics odds. Before locking in any Celtics vs. Hawks picks, you need to see the NBA playoff predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the third week of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 71-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Hawks and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Hawks vs. Celtics:

  • Celtics vs. Hawks spread: Celtics -13
  • Celtics vs. Hawks over/under: 231 points
  • Celtics vs. Hawks money line: Celtics -900, Hawks +600
  • ATL: The Hawks are 19-24-1 against the spread in road games
  • BOS: The Celtics are 26-17 against the spread in home games
  • Celtics vs. Hawks picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Hawks can cover

Atlanta's rebounding edge in this series is significant. The Hawks are grabbing 30.5% of available offensive rebounds against the Celtics, and Atlanta also has a sterling 78.6% defensive rebound rate in the series. Boston was a bottom-five team in the NBA in offensive rebound rate (25.5%) during the regular season, and Atlanta is also holding the Celtics to 17.3 free throw attempts per game while creating more than 15 turnovers per game on defense.

On the offensive end, the Hawks scored 1.19 points per possession in the last two games of the series, and Atlanta was a top-eight offensive team in the NBA during the regular season. Murray's absence is notable, but the Hawks have a star guard in Young, who led the NBA in total assists this season. Young also found his footing over the last two games, averaging 33.5 points and 12.0 assists while shooting 48% from the field and 38% from beyond the 3-point arc. See which side to back at SportsLine.

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston has the superior defense by a wide margin in this series. The Celtics are holding the Hawks to only 109.9 points per 100 possessions through four games, and that number tumbles to 100.5 points allowed per 100 possessions in the two games at TD Garden. Boston held Atlanta to only 40.7% from the field and 27.3% from 3-point range at home, and the Hawks have only a 54.4% true shooting mark in the full series. The Celtics also finished No. 2 in defensive rating (110.6) during the regular season, and Boston has elite metrics in virtually every defensive category.

The Celtics allowed only 21.1 free throw attempts per game in 2022-23, and the Hawks generated only 17.5 free throw attempts per game in the first four games of the series. Boston also led the NBA in defensive rebound rate (74.6%) this season, and the Celtics finished in the top six of the league in assists allowed, field goal percentage allowed, 3-point percentage allowed, and blocked shots. See which side to back at SportsLine.

How to make Hawks vs. Celtics picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 227 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can see the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Celtics vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 71-38 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.