On Thursday, the Boston Celtics look to bounce back after a disappointing performance on Tuesday evening. Boston lost Game 5 at home to the Atlanta Hawks, giving away a 13-point fourth-quarter lead in the process. That allowed Atlanta, led by Trae Young, to stay alive and force a Game 6 matchup at State Farm Arena. The Hawks trail the Celtics by a 3-2 margin in the series, and Game 6 is the only 2023 NBA playoff contest of the night in the NBA on Thursday.

Boston is listed as a 7-point road favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 230.5 in the latest Celtics vs. Hawks odds. Before locking in any Hawks vs. Celtics picks, you need to see the NBA playoff predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the third week of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 71-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Hawks and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Hawks vs. Celtics:

  • Celtics vs. Hawks spread: Celtics -7
  • Celtics vs. Hawks over/under: 230.5 points
  • Celtics vs. Hawks money line: Celtics -305, Hawks +240
  • BOS: The Celtics are 23-20 against the spread in road games
  • ATL: The Hawks are 19-24 against the spread in home games
  • Celtics vs. Hawks picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Celtics can cover

The Celtics had a hiccup in the fourth quarter of Game 5, but Boston has been the better team to this point. That includes the significantly superior defense, with the Celtics giving up 46.4 points in the paint, 16.0 free throw attempts, and 23.8 assists per game in the series. Boston is also averaging 6.6 blocked shots per game, leading the Eastern Conference Playoffs, and the Celtics finished No. 2 in the NBA in defensive rating (110.6) during the regular season. Boston led the league in defensive rebound rate (74.6%), with top-five marks in assist prevention, opponent shooting, and free throw prevention.

On offense, Boston is shooting the ball at a high level in the series, making 51.3% of field goal attempts and 39.8% of 3-point attempts. The Celtics are also generating 28.0 assists, 14.6 fast break points, and 54.4 points in the paint per game against the Hawks. That comes after top-eight marks in offensive rating, 3-pointers per game, 3-point accuracy, free throw accuracy and turnover rate in the regular season. See which side to back at SportsLine.

Why the Hawks can cover

The Hawks have stepped up at times on defense in this series, including a second half in Game 5 in which Atlanta allowed only 1.11 points per possession. The Hawks are securing 77.3% of available defensive rebounds in the series, giving up only 10.4 second-chance points per game. Atlanta is also generating 8.2 steals per game and giving up only 16.4 free throw attempts per game to Boston. The Hawks also have potent offensive metrics on the whole, with Atlanta scoring 115.5 points per 100 possessions during the regular season and 120.9 points per 100 possessions in the last three games of the series.

In those three contests, the Hawks shot 48.8% from the field and 42.9% from 3-point range, and Atlanta is beating Boston on the offensive glass by securing nearly 30% of missed shots. The Hawks also posted top-three marks in the NBA in turnover rate (12.6%) and free throw accuracy (81.8%) during the regular season, with top-10 rankings in field goal percentage, offensive rebound rate, second-chance points, and points in the paint. See which side to back at SportsLine.

How to make Hawks vs. Celtics picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, with 10 players simulated to reach double-figures. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time. You can see the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Celtics vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 71-38 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.