The Dallas Mavericks (45-30) will try to bounce back from a rare loss when they host the surging Atlanta Hawks (36-40) on Thursday night. Dallas had its seven-game winning streak snapped in a 104-100 loss to Golden State on Tuesday. The Mavericks are a half-game ahead of Phoenix and New Orleans for fifth place in the Western Conference standings, while Sacramento is just one game back. Atlanta has won six of its last seven games, including a 121-113 win over Detroit on Wednesday.  

Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. The Mavs are favored by 12 points in the latest Mavericks vs. Hawks odds, while the over/under is 228 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Hawks vs. Mavericks picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 23 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 81-55 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,300. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Atlanta vs. Dallas. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Hawks vs. Mavericks:

  • Mavericks vs. Hawks spread: Mavericks -12
  • Mavericks vs. Hawks over/under: 228 points
  • Mavericks vs. Hawks money line: Mavericks: -717, Hawks: +507
  • Mavericks vs. Hawks picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas is back home after a rare loss, as it fell to Golden State in a 104-100 thriller on Tuesday night. Star point guard Luka Doncic had 30 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists in a triple-double effort for the Mavericks, while veteran guard Kyrie Irving chipped in 27 points on 10 of 19 shooting. They had won seven straight games and 11 of their previous 12 games prior to that loss. 

Doncic scored a career-high and a franchise-record 73 points in a 148-143 win over Atlanta on Jan. 26, shooting 25 of 33 from the floor. He knocked down eight 3-pointers and went 15 of 16 from the charity stripe to tie the fourth-most points in NBA history. Doncic leads the league with an average of 33.9 points per game, cracking the 30-point mark on 48 occasions this season. Dallas also gets to face an Atlanta team without Trae Young (finger) and Onyeka Okongwu (finger). See which team to pick here.

Why the Hawks can cover

Atlanta has won six of its last seven games as it works to improve its playoff status in the Eastern Conference. The Hawks have already clinched a spot in the play-in tournament, and they moved into a tie with Chicago for ninth place in the standings with their 121-113 win over Detroit on Wednesday. They had three players score 24-plus points in that game, paced by Jalen Johnson's first career triple-double. 

He had a career-high 28 points to go along with 14 rebounds, 11 assists, four steals and one block. Johnson missed nine games due to knee soreness, but he has now played twice since then and is an important piece of the lineup. De'Andre Hunter added 26 points on 11 of 16 shooting, while Dejounte Murray had 24 points and 11 assists. Meanwhile, Dallas is a bit shorthanded without Dereck Lively II (knee) and Josh Green (ankle). See which team to pick here.

How to make Mavericks vs. Hawks picks

The model has simulated Hawks vs. Mavericks 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavs vs. Hawks, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Hawks vs. Mavs spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 81-55 roll on top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.