The Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Dallas Mavericks for a Western Conference showdown on Saturday afternoon. The Thunder are 35-16 overall and 15-10 on the road this season. Dallas is 29-23 overall and on a three-game winning streak. Maxi Kleber (toe) is listed as questionable for Dallas, with Dante Exum (knee) and Derrick Lively II (nasal) ruled out. Gordon Hayward (calf) is out for Oklahoma City.

For this 3 p.m. ET start, SportsLine consensus lists Oklahoma City as the 2.5-point favorite. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 239 in the latest Thunder vs. Mavericks odds. Before making any Mavericks vs. Thunder picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 16 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 51-33 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $1,700. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Thunder vs. Mavs. You can head to SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Mavs vs. Thunder:

  • Thunder vs. Mavericks spread: Thunder -2.5
  • Thunder vs. Mavericks over/under: 239 points
  • Thunder vs. Mavericks money line: Thunder -139, Mavericks +118
  • OKC: The Thunder are 14-10-1 against the spread in road games
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 11-16 against the spread in home games
  • Thunder vs. Mavericks picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Thunder can cover

Oklahoma City has an MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and he keys one of the NBA's best offensive teams. Gilgeous-Alexander has at least 30 points in 37 of his 50 games this season, and he is averaging 31.1 points and 6.6 assists per contest. He is also highly efficient, shooting 54.7% from the field, and Gilgeous-Alexander is the league leader in drives per game. With Gilgeous-Alexander at the point of attack, the Thunder are excellent on offense, scoring 119.3 points per 100 possessions this season. 

OKC ranks in the top five of the NBA in field goal percentage (50.1%), 3-point percentage (39.2%) and 2-point percentage (56.8%), and the Thunder are also elite at the free throw line, converting 83% of attempts. The Thunder commit a turnover on only 12.4% of offensive possessions this season, and Oklahoma City is averaging more than 27 assists per game. Oklahoma City also ranks comfortably in the top ten of the league in generating points in the paint (53.5 per game) and fast break points (15.2 per game) this season. See who to back at SportsLine.

Why the Mavericks can cover

Luka Doncic is in the midst of a dominant stretch. The Mavericks star is averaging 39.9 points, 10.4 assists and 10.3 rebounds per game in the last seven outings, shooting 52.3% from the field and 40.3% from 3-point range in that sample. Doncic is also leading the NBA with 34.6 points per game for the season, and he is in the top five of the NBA with 9.5 assists per contest. In the first meeting between these two games, Doncic erupted for 36 points, 18 assists and 15 rebounds, and he is the engine of a very strong offense. 

Dallas is scoring more than 1.17 points per possession this season, and the Mavericks are No. 2 in the NBA in committing only 12.3 turnovers per game. That is a pivotal quality against Oklahoma City's ball-hawking defense, and Dallas is also burying 15.2 3-pointers per game. The Mavericks can also take advantage of two glaring weaknesses for the Thunder, as Oklahoma City ranks in the bottom third of the NBA in defensive rebound rate (68.0%) and free throw prevention (24.1 attempts allowed per contest). See who to back at SportsLine.

How to make Mavericks vs. Thunder picks

The model has simulated Thunder vs. Mavericks 10,000 times and is leaning Under on the total, projecting 240 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time. You can only see the picks at SportsLine

So who wins Thunder vs. Mavs, and which side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 51-33 roll on top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.