The group stage of the NBA's inaugural In-Season Tournament has come and gone, and now we know who will face off in the knockout stage. On Monday, it will be the Indiana Pacers hosting the Boston Celtics in the early game and the New Orleans Pelicans visiting the Sacramento Kings in the nightcap. On Tuesday, the New York Knicks will head to Milwaukee to face the Bucks and the last game of the quarterfinal round will be the Phoenix Suns in Los Angeles to take on the Lakers.
But how did we get here? We already knew one matchup coming into Tuesday. Barring some extreme blowouts that we didn't get, we knew about the Lakers-Suns matchup. The Kings, who won a thriller over the Warriors Tuesday night, won West Group C and will take on the Pelicans, the West Group B winner, after the Rockets lost to the Mavericks.
In the East, the Bucks held off the Heat on Tuesday to clinch a 4-0 run through East Group B, and waiting for them in the knockout stage will be a familiar opponent. The Knicks faced the Bucks in their first tournament matchup, and while they fell short of a massive second-half comeback, New York is likely thrilled at the chance for revenge they're about to get.
The other Eastern Conference knockout stage features two teams that have played in one of the more lopsided games of the season to date. The 4-0 Pacers, winners of East Group A, will host the 3-1 Celtics, winners of East Group C. The last time these teams met during the regular season, the Celtics blasted the Pacers, 155-104 on Nov. 1. This time, however, the Pacers have earned home-court advantage due to their superior group play point-differential.
So now that we've reached the conclusion of the group stage, what are our major takeaways? Here are three big ones:
What would the league have wanted out of its knockout stage field before the tournament began? A few things, in theory. Obviously, some big-market contenders would help quite a bit with television ratings. You'd also want a few newer, younger teams that the tournament could help market. Finally, the remaining teams should at least have stars fans will be familiar with.
We got all of the above.
This is, essentially, a perfect mix. The NBA got everything it could have wanted out of the final eight, and now Las Vegas stands to be the perfect advertising vehicle for what will surely become the next major staple on the NBA calendar.
In terms of measuring team quality, point-differential is pretty universally considered to be more accurate than record. There's a reason net rating has become such a popular stat. If the goal of the group stage was strictly to reward the teams that played the best basketball in their four games, it makes perfect sense as a tiebreaker.
Of course, that's not the only goal at play here. The league is also trying to launch a permanent event here, ideally one that fans can easily understand and embrace. But that's not how Tuesday went. Most of the night's slate featured meaningful games in outcome, yes, but also in scoring margins. It was confusing to track how much each team needed to win by in order to advance, especially when multiple teams involved in any scenario were still playing.
Plus, it's become clear that not every player is on board with running up scores. DeMar DeRozan got himself ejected from a game last week after complaining about it. Jayson Tatum complained as well earlier this week -- only for his Celtics to go into hack-a-Drummond mode to scrounge up every last point against DeRozan's Bulls.
Bottom line: There's no perfect solution, but the league is going to be open-minded here. A lot has worked in this first tournament run. This specific component has been more of a mixed bag. If there's a better solution out there, the league will look for it.
It's hard to say if any single team stands out here. It's a remarkably balanced crowd. The Pacers, Knicks and Pelicans are the teams in the field with the most exploitable weaknesses, but all three are .500 or better and have All-Stars on their rosters. Even if their presence makes life a bit easier on the Celtics, Bucks and Kings, nobody has an easy game in the knockout stage.
What happens when we get to Vegas? The Western Conference teams probably have a slight advantage in terms of travel and fans. The Lakers in particular have had robust crowds at Summer League over the years. They should similarly be a draw in this tournament. Like Los Angeles, Phoenix is a relative short-hop flight from Vegas, so the Suns should be well-supported too.
This tournament field, much like the NBA championship field this season, has no obvious favorite. Your pick should probably just be the team you think is the best among the survivors. In a single elimination setting, anything can happen.
22 Teams down, eight left standing. Here are our four knockout stage games:
Suns at Lakers
Pelicans at Kings
Knicks at Bucks
Celtics at Pacers
Light the beam folks, the Sacramento Kings are headed to the knockout stage. Malik Monk's game-winner got Sacramento its first win over Golden State of the season, and in the process, the Kings clinched West Group C. They will host the New Orleans Pelicans in the knockout stage.
Huge lost challenge for the Warriors. Not only does the offensive foul on Stephen Curry stand, but the Warriors are now out of timeouts for the last three minutes of this game.
Great point by Stan Van Gundy on the broadcast: the Kings are +17 in the nine minutes or so since Sasha Vezenkov checked into this game. His shooting, ball-handling and energy have been infectious.
Forget about winning by 12. Right now, the Warriors would just like to win the game, period. Sacramento has trimmed a once-21-point deficit down to four. It's 107-103 Warriors, and Steve Kerr won't stop this run with a timeout.
Trey Lyles "knocked" Draymond Green to the floor, and Green really sold the contact begging for a whistle. He didn't get it, and replay showed a visible flop. The Warriors were fortunate to escape without giving up an extra free-throw... except Draymond Green went ahead and committed a technical foul on the very next possession.
Confused? That's okay. Here's what's happening. Going into the fourth quarter, the Warriors lead the game 104-95. However, as the Warriors need to win by 12 in order to advance in the In-Season Tournament, From that perspective, the Kings are almost "winning" by three with 12 minutes remaining.
Oh boy. The Warriors lost one guard earlier in this game when Chris Paul got hurt. Now Gary Payton II appears to be in serious pain as well with some sort of leg issues. He's checking out of the game, and the Warriors are starting to get precariously thin.
Very few plays in basketball are less excusable than having an inbounds pass stolen. Well, Gary Payton II just jumped the passing lane on a Harrison Barnes inbounds pass only to make a layup and get fouled. That's just lazy basketball by the Kings to give the Warriors three free points.
The last time the Kings played the Warriors, De'Aaron Fox torched them for 39 points. That was more or less how their playoff series went last season. Well, so far tonight, Fox and Domantas Sabonis have combined for 21 points. Stephen Curry alone has 24. Golden State is getting more out of its best player.
Reminder: The Warriors don't just need a win here. They need to win by at least 12 to win West Group C. They are currently up by 14, but we're in uncharted waters here. This game effectively has two different scoreboards. There's the one that leads to winning this game, and the one that leads to winning this group. How do these teams manage that juggling act? We'll find out in the second half.
With the Warriors leading the Kings by 19 points at halftime, this is how our four knockout stage matchups are looking at the moment:
Warriors at Pelicans
Suns at Lakers
Celtics at Pacers
Knicks at Bucks
The Dallas Mavericks have defeated the Houston Rockets, and that means the New Orleans Pelicans have advanced to the knockout stage of the In-Season Tournament. They will face either the Warriors or the Kings, who are playing right now in a game which is currently a blowout in Golden State's favor. Golden State needs to win by 12 or more in order to advance.
The Rockets entered this game 1-5 on the road and 3-5 in clutch games. The Mavericks had a 7-1 clutch record entering this one. That's not surprising. Dallas has Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, two of the best closers in the NBA. The Rockets are still young. They're learning how to win these tough games on the road. It's a tale as old as time in the NBA, and it looks like we're headed for a Mavericks win as a result.
It's not even halftime yet and the Warriors have a plus-8 rebounding advantage over the Kings already. That's going to bring back some bad memories of how Kevon Looney dominated them in the postseason a year ago. It's the same old story tonight with a place in the knockout stage of the In-Season Tournament on the line.
Dillon Brooks just picked up his fifth foul, and it was an absolutely doozy. He just fouled Derrick Jones Jr.—one of the worst shooters on the team for the Mavericks—on a desperation, end-of-the-shot-clock heave from 3-point range. Jones makes all three, and it's 111-102 Mavericks with 3:20 remaining.
The Rockets are 1-5 on the road this season, and these last six minutes or so will be their greatest test yet. It's a tournament game with real stakes. They're playing against two proven closers in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. If Houston wins, we'll know they've turned a real corner and are ready to start winning consistently. However, the Mavericks lead by five, so Houston has its work cut out for them.
The Rockets lead the Mavericks, 88-84 heading into the fourth quarter tonight. Remember, if the Rockets win, they advance. If the Rockets lose, the Pelicans advance. The winner between those two teams will face the winner of Kings-Warriors, which Golden State currently leads by 10.
Yes, the Timberwolves have just been eliminated from the In-Season Tournament, but remember, this was a regular-season game as well. Minnesota, the team with the best record in the West, just beat the Thunder, the team with the second-best record in the West, with Anthony Edwards sidelined for most of the second half. That's still a huge win.
The Timberwolves needed to win by at least 10 points, and then have the Warriors defeat the Kings by at least nine fewer points that they won over the Thunder in order to possibly advance. Minnesota did ultimately defeat the Thunder, but missed out on that 10-point threshold, so the winner of Kings-Warriors will advance as the winner of West Group C.
Right now, the Timberwolves lead the Thunder, 93-90 with around five minutes to go. If the Timberwolves win that game, they still have a chance to win West Group C through the point-differential tiebreaker. To do so, they'd have to win by at least 10 points, and then they'd need to hope that the Warriors beat the Kings by at least nine fewer points than they've beaten the Timberwolves by. So it's unlikely, but Minnesota needs a win to survive.
Alright folks, we officially have our two Eastern Conference knockout stage matchups set. Here's what's coming:
New York Knicks (wildcard) @ Milwaukee Bucks (East Group B winner)
Boston Celtics (East Group C winner) @ Indiana Pacers (East Group A winner)
The Pacers have home-court advantage over the Celtics due to their superior point-differential (+39 vs. +27).
You never see bad, late-game technical fouls out of Miami, but Erik Spoelstra just committed a big one complaining about a foul call on Josh Richardson. Damian Lillard sinks the free throw, and the Bucks are now up three with roughly one minute remaining. Lillard gets two more shots.
Damian Lillard has been Milwaukee's closer all year, but Khris Middleton has stepped into that role tonight. He has the last four Bucks points, but more importantly, he looks healthy for the first time all season. The Bucks will be unstoppable late in games if they have both Lillard and Middleton at full strength.
We now have three of our four East knockout stage teams. Boston and Indiana have advanced as group winners. The Knicks, at +42, will win the third group if Miami beats Milwaukee, but even if the Heat fall short, the Knicks will be the East wildcard team and advance that way. That leaves one last slot to be determined, but Milwaukee, with a +39 point-differential entering Tuesday, are our likeliest participant unless things go really wrong in these final minutes against Miami.
Alright folks, it looks like the Orlando Magic are going to miss out on the quarterfinals here. With the Nets now 68 seconds away from victory against the Raptors and the Celtics already winning over Chicago, we have a three-way tie atop East Group C at 3-1. That pushes those teams into a three-way tie which will be settled by point-differential. The Magic are at +22, but didn't play today. The Celtics entered Tuesday at +0, but just won by 27. The Nets were at +8, but needed to win this game by 19 to advance. They did not, so the Celtics are going to be your Group C winners.
The Knicks didn't just need a win to advance today. They needed a blowout. New York's formula for advancing was a win along with a Milwaukee loss to Miami, followed by the point-differential tiebreaker working in their favor. The problem was that they trailed Milwaukee by 21 points in that regard entering Tuesday. Well, right now, the Knicks lead the Hornets by 23 while the Bucks are losing by one to the Heat. The Knicks, at this moment, are the favorite to win East Group B.
Here's a fun moment on the broadcast between the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks. With Dirk Nowitzki in the booth, Alperen Sengun hit a one-legged fadeaway jumper. That's Nowitzki's patented shot, and he called Sengun's execution of the weapon "beautiful."
Welp... it's official. The Celtics are going for the point-differential tiebreaker after all. Up 29 midway through the fourth quarter, the Celtics have started hacking poor free-throw shooter Andre Drummond, the sort of strategy you typically only see late in close games. Drummond has missed his first four attempts.
