The Golden State Warriors will visit the Miami Heat in a cross-conference matchup on Tuesday's NBA schedule. Miami is 39-32 overall and 18-16 at home, while Golden State is 36-34 overall and 18-15 on the road. Miami has won the last two meetings, including the lone matchup this season, a 114-102 win in San Francisco on Dec. 28. The Warriors are 36-32-2 against the spread in the 2023-24 NBA season, while the Heat are 34-35-2 versus the line.

Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET at the Kaseya Center in Miami. Golden State is favored by 2 points in the latest Heat vs. Warriors odds, per SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 218 points. Before entering any Warriors vs. Heat picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 23 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 77-50 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,500. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Golden State vs. Miami. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Warriors vs. Heat:

  • Heat vs. Warriors spread: Heat +2
  • Heat vs. Warriors over/under: 218 points
  • Heat vs. Warriors money line: Heat: +110, Warriors: -131
  • Heat vs. Warriors picks: See picks at SportsLine

What you need to know about the Warriors

It's hard to win when your 3-point shooting is a whole 13.6% worse than the opposition, a fact the Warriors found out the hard way on Sunday. They took a 114-110 hit to the loss column at the hands of the Minnesota Timberwolves. The defeat unfortunately continues a disappointing trend for the Warriors in their matchups with the Timberwolves: they've now lost four in a row. Despite the loss, the Warriors got a solid performance out of Stephen Curry, who scored 31 points.

Golden State is now just one-half game ahead of the Houston Rockets for the final spot in the NBA Play-In Tournament. The offense's struggles over the last month have played a big part in the gap between those teams shrinking in the NBA standings as the Warriors averaged 119.1 points before the month of March but are putting up just 114.8 points this month. Curry is shooting just 41% from the field and 36% from the 3-point line in March, both of which are lows for any month this season for him. However, the Warriors are a league-best 22-11 ATS on the road this season. See which team to pick here.

What you need to know about the Heat

Meanwhile, Miami's defense reigned supreme when the Heat and the Cleveland Cavaliers played on Sunday as Miami steamrolled past the Cavs 121-84 at home. That 37-point margin sets a new team best for the Heat this season. The Heat got their win on the backs of several key players, but it was Bam Adebayo out in front who dropped a double-double on 15 points and 16 rebounds.

Miami ranks fourth in the NBA in scoring defense, allowing 108.9 points per game, but it's also fourth-worst in the league in scoring offense, putting up just 109.6 ppg. Numerous injuries have played a role in Miami's struggles on the offensive end as the team will be without Tyler Herro (foot) and Duncan Robinson (back), while Jaime Jaquez Jr. (ankle) is questionable. The Heat have covered in two of their last three games, but they are just 1-7 ATS as home favorites this season, which is the second-worst mark in the NBA. See which team to pick here.

Key Betting Info

Jimmy Butler will likely loom large in the final result, win or lose. For the year, he has averaged 21.4 points, 1.4 steals, and 4.8 assists.

Some of the betting trends to consider are:

  • The Heat are 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games as a home dog.
  • The Warriors are 11-3 against the spread in their last 14 games when favored on the road.
  • The Warriors are 22-11 against the spread in their last 33 games when on the road.

How to make Heat vs. Warriors picks

The model has simulated Heat vs. Warriors 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

Who wins Warriors vs. Heat, and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see the picks, all from the model that's on a sizzling 77-50 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.