NFL odds, picks for AFC, NFC Championship Games: Advanced computer model says go over in Saints vs. Rams
SportsLine's computer model simulated the AFC and NFC title games 10,000 times with surprising results
The conference championship round of the 2019 NFL playoffs kicks off Sunday, and the latest NFL odds indicate both matchups could come down to the wire with a trip to the 2019 Super Bowl on the line. The NFC Championship Game features two explosive offenses that can light up the scoreboard. The Saints enter Sunday's showdown at 3:05 p.m. ET as three-point favorites over the Rams. Meanwhile, the Patriots (+3) are a playoff underdog for just the second time since 2007. The over-under for Sunday's AFC Championship Game opened at 57.5, the second-highest game total in Tom Brady's career. However, it sits at 56.5 in the latest NFL lines. With teams so evenly matched and NFL odds on the move, be sure to check out the top NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine's proven computer model before making any plays of your own.
SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight up last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018-19, entering the championship round on a blistering 16-6 run. For the season, it is now 30-15 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. It also went 170-84 on straight-up NFL picks during the regular season, ranking inside the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Additionally, it is 7-1 on all against-the-spread picks in the 2019 NFL playoffs. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now it has examined the latest NFL odds and lines, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its NFL picks and predictions are in. One of the top championship round NFL picks the model recommends: The over (56.5) hits when the Saints host the Rams in the NFC title game.
These teams are known for their high-powered offenses, and it's each team's running game that allows their play-action passing attack to have success. The Saints feature a two-headed monster in the backfield with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. New Orleans' dynamic duo helped the Saints finish the regular season ranked in the top 10 in points (31.5), rushing yards (126.6) and total yards (379.2) per game.
Meanwhile, the Rams are led by do-it-all back Todd Gurley, who finished the regular season with over 1,800 all-purpose yards and 21 total touchdowns. However, it's been the emergence of C.J. Anderson that has surprised many around the league. Anderson had 23 carries for 123 yards and two touchdowns against the Cowboys in the divisional round.
SportsLine's model is calling for Gurley and Anderson to account for over 150 yards of total offense. It's also projecting Ingram and Kamara to have big days, accumulating more than 160 yards of total offense as the over hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
Another one of the championship round NFL predictions from the model: The under (56) hits when the Patriots travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Chiefs.
As the Chiefs vs. Patriots forecast has shifted, so too has the over-under. It opened at 57, but fell 2.5 points as fears of an arctic blast dropped the total. Now, it's back at 56.5 with the temperature expected to be in the low 20s at kickoff.
Even with a better forecast than initially feared, the model still loves the value of the under. Even though these teams combined for 83 points earlier in the season, the trends are pointing to a different result this time around. Eight of New England's last 10 games have gone under, while Kansas City is on an eye-opening 50-23 under streak in games played at Arrowhead Stadium. The model says the under hits in well over half of simulations.
The model also has locked in NFL against the spread picks for the AFC and NFC Championship Games. You can bank on both of these selections to hit over 50 percent of the time, so make sure to see them before locking in your own NFL picks.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence during the NFL's championship round schedule? And which sides of the spread can you bank on over half the time? Check out the latest NFL odds for Sunday below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.
NFC Championship Game: Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-3, 56.5)
AFC Championship Game: New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 56.5)
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