Ranking the NHL's non-playoff teams: Avalanche in big trouble for 2016
Which team that missed the playoffs this season has the best chance to make it back next season?
By
Adam Gretz
•
8 min read
With the exception of the two playoff spots that are still up for grabs in the Eastern Conference (where the Detroit Red Wings, Boston Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers are competing for them), we already know who is going to the 2015-16 Stanley Cup Playoffs, and who is not.
When it comes to the latter group, it is a given that at least a couple of those teams are going to manage to get their way back into the postseason in 2016-17. But which teams have the best chance to do it?
Let's take a look at the 13 teams that have already been eliminated from postseason contention this season and rank them as to which has the best chance of making the playoffs next season based on their current roster, current organizational resources, and overall direction of the team.
Best chance to make it next season
1. Montreal Canadiens: Such a strange team the past two years. The Canadiens were probably not as good as their record would indicate during the 2014-15 season, and probably not as bad as their collapse this season would have you believe. If anything, those two seasons show just how important Carey Price is to their success. If he is back healthy and ready to go next season the Canadiens should be a good bet to be back in the playoffs. A fresh approach behind the bench might help them out a lot as well.
2. Carolina Hurricanes: The roster doesn't have a superstar, but there is still a lot to like about this team. Even though they are not going to the playoffs this season, they have been a thorn in the side of every contending team that has had to play them down the stretch, they are a top-10 possession team in the NHL for the season, and they have an outstanding young defense that is only going to get better. With more consistent goaltending and a little bit more help up front they can be very, very close to being a playoff team.
3. Arizona Coyotes: While the Hurricanes have their defense to thank for their hope going into next season, the Coyotes have an equally impressive group of young forwards. Max Domi and Anthony Duclair are already starting to make their presence felt in the NHL, and next season they should be ready to add the most talented forward out of their young core in 2015 No. 3 overall pick Dylan Strome. They also have one of the top defenseman in the NHL in Oliver Ekman-Larsson.
4. Calgary Flames: After a surprising playoff appearance in 2015 the Flames took a big step back this season. It shouldn't be difficult to get going back in the right direction. Even though the roster has some holes when it comes to the depth, there is still a very strong core group in place with Johnny Gaudreau, Sam Bennett, Sean Monahan, T.J. Brodie, Dougie Hamilton and Mark Giordano. What they really need is a goalie. The Flames have -- by far -- the worst save percentage in the NHL this season (.891 ... the next worst team is .902) and that is just absolutely killing their chances. Even a save percentage in the .910 area, which is still below the league average, could shave 10-15 goals off of their total.
Closer to a return, but probably still a longshot
5. Buffalo Sabres: Now that the "tank" is in the rear view mirror, the focus is back to actually winning hockey games and being a relevant, competitive team. Even though it didn't result in a playoff appearance this year the Sabres still took a pretty massive step forward thanks to some big moves over the past year that saw them bring in Evander Kane, Ryan O'Reilly and Robin Lehner. By next season their young building blocks, Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart, will have a full year of NHL experience under their belts and should be even better than they were this year (and they were already pretty good), while a full season from Lehner in net could be a real game-changer for them. There are still some weaknesses that need to be addressed, but this is a team that is clearly on the rise and going in the right direction.
6. Ottawa Senators: Ottawa has made the playoffs once over the past three years and needed a miracle run at the end of that season just to get sneak in for a first-round loss. Even with the best defenseman in the NHL on the roster there just isn't enough talent here and they don't seem to have the resources -- financially or in terms of assets to move in a trade -- to bring in the necessary talent to get back to the playoffs in one offseason.
7. New Jersey Devils: Jon Hynes did a pretty magnificent job behind the bench this season to keep this group competitive as long as it was, because on paper this isn't a particularly skilled team. What they do have is Cory Schneider, and a goaltender like him can mask a lot of flaws.
8. Toronto Maple Leafs: There is a clear plan in place, they seem to have the right people in positions of power to execute that plan, and even though their record still stinks this year, Mike Babcock has them playing at least somewhat competitive hockey with what is mostly a skeleton roster. They just need the talent to bring it all together. And even if they don't decide to go for a big score in free agency, some of that talent is on the verge arriving with William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen and what will be another top-four pick in 2016. They still might be a year or two away, but they are on the right track.
Time to tear it down and start over
9. Columbus Blue Jackets: This team has some young talent. Brandon Saad, Cam Atkinson and Boone Jenner are all legitimate top-six forwards in the NHL, Seth Jones has the potential to be a top-pairing player on the blue line, and when he is healthy and on top of his game Sergei Bobrovsky can be a really good NHL goalie.
But here is the problem with the Blue Jackets: They have close to $22 million in cap space going to the quartet of Brandon Dubinsky, Scott Hartnell, David Clarkson, and Nick Foligno for the next three years, at which point Hartnell will become a free agent (Dubinsky, Clarkson and Foligno are all signed beyond then). That is a lot of money going to players that have probably already played their best hockey (Dubinsky, Hartnell), were never that great to begin with (Clarkson), or probably won't duplicate the career year that got them the big money deal (Foligno). There is some talent here they can build with, but it is going to take a lot of work.
10. Winnipeg Jets: Going back to its Atlanta days, this is an organization that has been in the NHL for 16 years. It has made the playoffs two times. It has won zero playoff games. Even with that miserable record it is still committed in a lot of ways to the exact same core that has failed to produce results, and is now older and more expensive. It is not a good team, it lacks star power, isn't particularly interesting in any way, and doesn't seem to be in any hurry to make any kind of drastic changes to the organization. If any team in the league needs to win No. 1 overall pick, it might be this one.
11. Vancouver Canucks: Even though Henrik and Daniel Sedin can still play a pretty high level, the Stanley Cup window in Vancouver is closed. Their best players are on the downside of their careers and there just doesn't seem to be a quick fix to get things quickly back on track.
Still a long way to go
12. Edmonton Oilers: If they can't build a competitive team around Connor McDavid, then there is no hope for this organization at all. But for as good as McDavid is, he can't single handedly bring this organization back to relevance. Given the way things have gone down the stretch (Todd McLellan seems broken and out of answers after being there for just one year), it seems possible that somebody from the "core" is going to get moved this offseason.
In more trouble than they realize
13. Colorado Avalanche: The weird thing about the Avalanche is there is a lot to like about them. Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog and Tyson Barrie are all really good NHL players, and should be the foundation of a contending team. In a league that is now all about risk averse, play-it-safe hockey, the Avalanche tend to play a more exciting, up-tempo game, and their coach is completely unpredictable.
But it's just not a very good hockey team, and it is only likely to get worse given the current path they're on. Maybe they won't be the worst team in the NHL, but this team could be on the verge of an absolutely fascinating offseason, at least as it relates to the roster on the ice.
This team probably overachieved this season (and not by a little) and it still managed to fall short of the playoffs in a year where the threshold to get in the Western Conference Field was lower than it has ever been over the past decade. They are the worst puck possession team in hockey by a significant margin, the people in position of power in the organization don't seem to care about that, and their answer to all of the problems seems to be more leadership and grit. In other words: They're probably going to overpay somebody in free agency that isn't go help them in a tangible way, or ship out one of the core players they should be trying to build around.
Rival GM's should be trying to pry the Avalanche's 2017 first-round pick away from them in a trade this offseason because this seems like a team that doesn't realize it's in as much trouble as it is.
