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No. 14 Louisville (10-2) and No. 4 Florida State (12-0) match up in the 2023 ACC Championship Game on Saturday night with a trip to the College Football Playoff likely on the line for FSU. Florida State is first in the conference in scoring (38.8). Meanwhile, Louisville is ranked third at 33 points per game. FSU, however, has huge concerns at quarterback. FSU quarterback Jordan Travis (leg) is out for the season, and coach Mike Norvell said on Friday that backup Tate Rodemaker (head) would be a game-day decision for this game. Third-stringer Brock Glenn will get the start if Rodemaker can't go.

Kickoff from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte is set for 8 p.m. ET. The Seminoles are 1-point favorites in the latest Louisville vs. Florida State odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points is 46.5. Before making any Florida State vs. Louisville picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a strong profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It finished the 2023 regular season a profitable 13-9 on top-rated spread picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on FSU vs. Louisville and locked in its picks and CFB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and betting lines for Louisville vs. FSU:

  • Florida State vs. Louisville spread: FSU -1
  • Florida State vs. Louisville over/under: 46.5 points 
  • Florida State vs. Louisville money line: Seminoles -119, Cardinals -101
  • FSU: Florida State is 11-0 in its last 11 games against an opponent from the ACC
  • LOU: Louisville is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games against Florida State
  • Florida State vs. Louisville picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Florida State vs. Louisville live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why Louisville can cover

Louisville's defense has been stellar this season. The Cardinals rank fourth in the ACC in points allowed (20), second in total defense (314.7) and first in run defense (96.8). This group has also snagged 12 interceptions on the year. Junior defensive lineman Ashton Gillotte is a high-motor pass-rusher who possesses excellent hand placement. 

Gillotte leads the conference in sacks (11) with 43 total tackles and three forced fumbles. In his last game, the Florida native had four tackles and one sack. Sophomore linebacker TJ Quinn is an instinctive tackler on the second level. Quinn runs across the field with ease, leading the team in total tackles (75). He's finished with double-digit stops in three games thus far. See which team to pick here.

Why Florida State can cover 

The Seminoles are averaging 156.3 rushing yards per game and they'll lean on the ground game with their questions at quarterback. Junior running back Trey Benson is the main option in the backfield. Benson has tremendous vision to glide through the open hole. The Mississippi native can also quickly accelerate and get upfield. Benson has logged 138 carries for 838 yards and 14 touchdowns. He's gone over 70 rushing yards in six games in 2023.

In the win over Florida, Benson racked up 19 rushes for 95 yards and three rushing scores. Junior tight end Jaheim Bell will need to step up and make life easier for the QB. The Florida native caught 39 passes for 503 yards and two touchdowns. On Nov. 18 versus North Alabama, Bell had two receptions for 59 yards. See which team to pick here.

How to make Louisville vs. FSU picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 48 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine

So who wins FSU vs. Louisville, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's up well over $2,000 on top-rated college football picks since its inception, and find out.