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We're in it, the last few days before the trade deadline.
If your team — like, the one you root for — is in the playoff hunt, you're obviously looking for it to do something big. For Fantasy purposes, though, you may not know what you want. Normally, you're just struggling to figure out the status quo, which makes every big trade feel like when your kid waddles over and knocks down the block tower you've spent the past 20 minutes building. You can't be mad, really, but you don't exactly like it either.
So it doesn't hurt to try anticipating the landscape-altering trades before they happen. To that end, I've come up with 10 players (more than that, actually) who could see a big change in value with a deadline deal.
I'm not saying they're all likely to be traded, but of the players most likely to be traded, they're the ones who'll be most impacted.
Despite some positively sinister numbers, Yates' promotion to the closer role has met with widespread disinterest in Fantasy, his ownership sitting below 60 percent. You could say it's because he's closing for the Padres, a bottom-of-the-division club, but his predecessor, Brad Hand, was one of the NL leaders in saves when he was traded to the Indians.
More likely, it's because owners aren't convinced Yates himself isn't out the door in a matter of days and destined to set up for someone else. Maybe it'll happen, preempting his opportunity to become a lights-out closer, but it's July 31 or bust for him. His isn't the sort of contract the Padres can expect to sneak through waivers in August. Once the deadline comes and goes, he'll be either one of the most added or one of the most dropped players.
Remember how I hoped against hope that the Yankees would sign Mike Moustakas this offseason, creating the possibility for three 50-homer guys in the heart of their lineup? Maybe I got a little carried away, but that's the kind of potential I thought he would have at Yankee Stadium, which would perfectly suit his pull-heavy, fly ball-happy swing.
It doesn't sound like the Yankees are as strong of a possibility now as, say, the Brewers or Braves, but Moustakas figures to benefit from just about any venue change. The Royals have an enormous stadium where many of his fly balls land in his opponents' gloves, and for his career, he has hit almost 60 percent of his home runs on the road. Plus, the rest of the Royals lineup is so bad, ranking dead last in runs scored, that the RBI and runs have been hard to come by of late. He'd have more help wherever he goes.
Related: Whit Merrifield is thought to have a much higher price tag since he's not an impending free agent and has years of team control remaining, but he's also in the Brewers' crosshairs. Obviously, they wouldn't acquire both. Merrifield would benefit from the improved supporting cast but not as much from the venue change.
I understand Jacob deGrom is unlikely to be traded. Again, these aren't the most likely players to be traded, just some of the rumored names who could see the biggest change in value if they indeed are traded. And now that deGrom's agent has put pressure on the Mets to pursue a deal, well, it doesn't seem so far-fetched.
The right-hander is having a historically dominant season, most recently allowing two earned while striking out 10 over eight innings Monday to raise his ERA to 1.71. And yet he lost that game, dropping his record to 5-5. He rarely wins because the Mets are just that bad, which explains why he hasn't been one of the 10 best pitchers in points leagues this year when he should probably be first or second.
Jacob deGrom is on pace to become the first pitcher in baseball's modern era to throw 200+ innings with a sub-2.00 ERA, and win fewer than 10 games. #Mets
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) July 24, 2018
Obviously, a move to a contender would rectify the situation. I'm not even going to qualify with a "probably." His luck couldn't get any worse.
Related: The Mets are more likely to trade Zack Wheeler than deGrom, and while Wheeler isn't nearly as good as deGrom, he does have a 3.63 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning over his past 11 starts ... winning just one of them. He's 3-6 for the year, so an improved supporting cast would be a welcome sight for him as well.
Chris Archer would benefit from a better supporting cast, of course — he's 34-48 with the Rays over the past four seasons — but what would help him more than anything is getting out of the AL East, where the parks are mostly small and the lineups mostly treacherous. I'm not normally someone who thinks a move to that division is a death sentence for pitchers either, but for him, the proof is in the pudding. He has spent his entire seven-year career there, putting together a 4.70 ERA in his four rivals' parks vs. 3.43 everywhere else. You wonder why his ERA is consistently higher than his FIP? That probably has a little something to do with it.
Fantasy owners have long considered Archer to have ace potential, but he hasn't actually produced an ERA below 4.00 since 2015, when it was only 3.23. A move out of the AL East — and preferably to the NL — could help him recapture that form. In case you needed a reminder of his potential, he struck out 13 while allowing no walks or home runs in his last start Sunday against the Marlins.
With his secondary stuff faltering and his swing strike rate slipping, Sonny Gray has problems beyond just where he pitches his home games. But considering he went from dominating to scuffling immediately after he was traded from the Athletics last July, it's hard to dismiss it as a coincidence. And really, if you look at his home/away splits since joining the Yankees, it more or less sums up his struggles. He has a 6.81 ERA in 14 starts at home and a 3.05 ERA in 16 starts on the road. Yankee Stadium is a notoriously difficult place to pitch, so while Gray, as a ground-ball pitcher is presumably less vulnerable to its effects, maybe his struggles there really are as simple as it being a terrible park for him.
But whether it's the park or the high-pressure environment that's bringing him down, a change of scenery could only do him good. Granted, it's a long shot the Yankees trade him since they're mostly looking to acquire pitching depth, but they are getting offers for him. Maybe one will make sense.
The Nationals, Phillies and Braves are all thought to have interest in Cole Hamels, who's in the last guaranteed year of his deal, and one of those teams may end up acquiring him just to keep him away from the competition. While Philadelphia presents a more hitter-friendly environment than the other two, you have to think even it would be an upgrade over Texas, where Hamels has been a completely different pitcher this year.
Most recent was the seven-run disaster against the Athletics on Monday in which he allowed two home runs. It gives him a 6.41 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.4 home runs per nine in 10 starts at home compared to a 2.93 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.1 home runs per nine everywhere else. So while the ERA is inflated and the FIP doesn't suggest any correction is in store, a change in venue might make all the difference.
Hamels has gotten back to being a high-end bat-misser this year, so I don't fully buy the "he's too old" narrative.
Vladimir Guerrero himself certainly won't be traded — non-contenders generally aren't looking to unload the best prospect in baseball — but if Josh Donaldson is moved, it might compel the Blue Jays to call up a player who clearly has nothing more to learn in the minors. They're both third baseman, after all. The Blue Jays have every incentive to trade Donaldson, too, since he's an impending free agent, though it may not happen until after the July 31 deadline given that he's still sidelined by a calf injury and hasn't played since May.
Currently closers, these pitchers would all likely find themselves in a setup role if traded, which would of course be the worst thing for their Fantasy value. The good news is most of their teams still have incentive to keep them. The most likely to be dealt are Joakim Soria, Fernando Rodney and Bud Norris, simply because each is in the final year of his contract, but the Twins and Cardinals may decide they still have a chance to compete for something. The most likely of these pitchers to remain a closer if he's traded is Raisel Iglesias, but he's also the least likely to be traded since he's on a team-friendly deal.
Related: Worse yet for Fantasy owners is that there aren't exciting replacements lined up for any of these relievers, with two exceptions. Joe Jimenez is the obvious closer-in-waiting in Detroit, and Jordan Hicks, who has surpassed Aroldis Chapman as the hardest thrower in baseball, would seem to be in line in St. Louis. But Shane Greene isn't particularly attractive to contenders, and Norris, again, may stay put. Drew Steckenrider would be kind of interesting for Miami, but he's as likely as Kyle Barraclough to be dealt.
Corbin Burnes has so far followed the Josh Hader path, going from starting pitcher prospect to multi-inning reliever, and done so successfully, but he may serve the Brewers better another way. Just because they're not ready to entrust a rotation spot to him doesn't mean he shouldn't be starting in the majors, and if he functions as trade bait in a deal for one of the Royals infielders or a more trustworthy starting pitcher, it'll benefit Fantasy owners in a couple ways.
Presumably, Burnes would get a chance to start with his new team, which would be an exciting development. Yes, his numbers were awful at Triple-A prior to his promotion, but Colorado Springs is basically the Coors Field of the minors. Between high Class A and Double-A last year, Burnes had a 1.67 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The 23-year-old becomes an immediate sleeper if he's traded.
Granted, an offseason deal seems more likely, but now that Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has lent voice to the idea that they don't have a place for Jose Martinez, the writing is on the wall, right? Sure, Martinez makes for a great bat off the bench, but seeing as he's already 29 and still has excellent numbers to his name, his greater value to the Cardinals is as a trade chip.
And assuming there's an AL club that will free up the DH spot for him, he could get back to mashing as he did the first three months of the season, keeping his batting average right around .300 with 25-homer pop. Of course, he has started three straight games at first base for the Cardinals, so maybe the talk of him ceding the job to Matt Carpenter, with Jedd Gyorko taking over at third base, was premature. Still, his defensive limitations are jeopardizing his value while still in the NL.
