As we continue to prepare for the 2020 NFL season, the Fantasy Football Today crew is diving into the numbers this week with Heath Cummings and Ben Gretch going team by team examining their projections for the season.
Projections are, of course, a vital tool for preparing for the Fantasy season, especially when you go team by team, as they did in Monday's podcast. It's important to do the work to make the puzzle pieces fit for each team before seeing how the league landscape as a whole looks, and projections help you establish your expectations and serve as a kind of "Most-Likely Outcome" baseline.
However, it's important to remember there are some limitations to projections-based analysis. For one thing, predicting the future is just really hard. So many of our collective assumptions are proven wrong by Week 1, while injuries and other random variables throw a wrench in even the most well-laid plans. And there is another point that draws from that one, especially when it comes to running backs: Volume is only king if you can accurately predict volume.
Take Leonard Fournette, for example: He's going to look pretty good by projections, with Ben projecting him for 288 touches and Heath setting the number at 265. If he gets there, he's going to be a pretty good value, even as the No. 17 back in ADP. Remember, he had 341 touches last year and finished as RB7 in PPR scoring despite just three touchdowns.
However, the range of outcomes is quite a bit wider than those projections indicate. A repeat of last year's volume is on the table; a scenario where the Jaguars totally lose interest in featuring him is also very much in play. They spent the offseason trying to trade Fournette, and with his free agency looming, they may prefer to see what they have in Ryquell Armstead before deciding what to do with the position for 2021 and beyond.
That's what projections can't capture: Upside and downside. In the projected tiers of Ben and Heath, Fournette lands in a similar range to the likes of David Johnson and Todd Gurley, and all three could make or break your season if you wind up with them in the early rounds. Which one you like best is going to come down which you think has the best chance to outperform these projections, and that comes down to research, your gut, and yes, a bit of luck.
Here are Heath and Ben's projected tiers at running back for 2020:
Heath Cummings' PPR RB projection tiers
400-plus points | 325-350 points | 295-324 points | 255-280 points |
235-254 points | 215-230 points | 190-205 points | 160-185 points |
Joe Mixon | David Johnson | ||
Chris Carson | |||
Josh Jacobs | |||
Aaron Jones | Leonard Fournette | ||
145-159 points | 130-145 points | 90-120 points | 80-90 points |
AJ Dillon | |||
JK Dobbins | |||
Heath Cummings' non-PPR RB projection tiers
290-plus points | 245-280 points | 220-244 points | 195-219 points |
Christian McCaffrey | Saquon Barkley | Ezekiel Elliott | Miles Sanders |
Derrick Henry | Alvin Kamara | Josh Jacobs | |
Dalvin Cook | Nick Chubb | Kenyan Drake | |
Joe Mixon | |||
Austin Ekeler | |||
Chris Carson | |||
175-194 points | 145-174 points | 130-144 points | 110-129 points |
David Johnson | Derrius Guice | Ke'Shawn Vaughn | |
Todd Gurley | Kareem Hunt | Sony Michel | |
David Montgomery | Ronald Jones | Kerryon Johnson | |
Cam Akers | D'Andre Swift | ||
Leonard Fournette | Damien Williams | JK Dobbins | |
Mark Ingram | Tevin Coleman | Tarik Cohen | |
Clyde Edwards-Helaire | Jordan Howard | Latavius Murray | |
Devin Singletary | James White | ||
Jonathan Taylor | Matt Breida | ||
Raheem Mostert | Phillip Lindsay | ||
Marlon Mack | |||
95-110 points | 80-94 points | 70-79 points | 55-65 points |
Chase Edmonds | Joshua Kelley | Zack Moss | Anthony McFarland |
Antonio Gibson | Boston Scott | Adrian Peterson | |
Nyheim Hines | Rex Burkhead | ||
Duke Johnson | Jalen Richard | Jerick McKinnon | |
Darrell Henderson | Tony Pollard | ||
AJ Dillon | Giovani Bernard | ||
Justin Jackson | Chris Thompson | ||
Alexander Mattison |
Ben Gretch's PPR RB projection tiers
400-plus points | 325-350 points | 295-310 points | 255-265 points |
Christian McCaffrey | Alvin Kamara | Dalvin Cook | Miles Sanders |
Saquon Barkley | Ezekiel Elliott | Austin Ekeler | |
Derrick Henry | |||
240-250 points | 215-230 points | 180-205 points | 160-175 points |
Nick Chubb | David Johnson | Tarik Cohen | D'Andre Swift |
Kenyan Drake | Todd Gurley | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | Cam Akers |
Aaron Jones | Leonard Fournette | Melvin Gordon | Mark Ingram |
Joe Mixon | Josh Jacobs | Ronald Jones | Raheem Mostert |
Chris Carson | David Montgomery | Devin Singletary | |
Jonathan Taylor | Kareem Hunt | ||
Le'Veon Bell | Tevin Coleman | ||
James Conner | Ke'Shawn Vaughn | ||
James White | |||
Derrius Guice | |||
130-160 points | 115-125 points | 90-105 points | 80-90 points |
Phillip Lindsay | Duke Johnson | A.J. Dillon | |
Damien Williams | Darrell Henderson | Rex Burkhead | Giovani Bernard |
Nyheim Hines | Kerryon Johnson | Darrynton Evans | Alexander Mattison |
Matt Breida | Boston Scott | Antonio Gibson | Justin Jackson |
Sony Michel | Jordan Howard | Chase Edmonds | |
Marlon Mack | Latavius Murray | Jalen Richard | |
J.K. Dobbins | Tony Pollard | Chris Thompson | |
Zack Moss |
Ben Gretch's non-PPR RB projection tiers
290-plus points | 245-260 points | 220-235 points | 195-210 points |
Christian McCaffrey | Saquon Barkley | Derrick Henry | Miles Sanders |
Alvin Kamara | Nick Chubb | Joe Mixon | |
Dalvin Cook | Aaron Jones | ||
Ezekiel Elliott | Kenyan Drake | ||
Josh Jacobs | |||
175-190 points | 145-165 points | 130-140 points | 110-125 points |
Austin Ekeler | Ronald Jones | Cam Akers | Phillip Lindsay |
Jonathan Taylor | Le'Veon Bell | Tevin Coleman | Ke'Shawn Vaughn |
David Johnson | David Montgomery | Derrius Guice | Damien Williams |
Todd Gurley | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | Devin Singletary | Marlon Mack |
Leonard Fournette | Raheem Mostert | D'Andre Swift | J.K. Dobbins |
Chris Carson | Mark Ingram | Tarik Cohen | Kareem Hunt |
James Conner | Melvin Gordon | Sony Michel | |
95-110 points | 80-95 points | 70-75 points | 55-65 points |
Zack Moss | Duke Johnson | Alexander Mattison | Antonio Gibson |
Matt Breida | Tony Pollard | Chase Edmonds | Jalen Richard |
Jordan Howard | Boston Scott | Darrynton Evans | Adrian Peterson |
Kerryon Johnson | A.J. Dillon | Rex Burkhead | Giovani Bernard |
James White | Jamaal Williams | Carlos Hyde | |
Latavius Murray | Justin Jackson | Chris Thompson | |
Darrell Henderson | Malcolm Brown | ||
Nyheim Hines |
