For a majority of the past year, I've had Patrick Mahomes in a tier of his own at the top. A little bit of regression from Mahomes (and some excellent play from Josh Allen and Justin Herbert) has turned Tier 1 into a bit of a party. And honestly, it probably looks better that way.
Unfortunately this change did not end the one-man tier. Dak Prescott's step back in 20221 ensured that.
If Prescott was younger, it would be easy to put him in Tier 2 with Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow. After all, he's shown as much upside and you could make the argument he has a better floor in 2022. But he's 28 years old, which doesn't really hurt his five-year forecast but certainly makes him less likely to improve than Murray and Burrow.
If Prescott was older, it would be easy to put him in Tier 5 with Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers. And maybe he does fit well with Stafford, if not for the fact that Stafford's career year in 2021 looks an awful lot like Prescott's "step back". In fact, Prescott scored more Fantasy points per game.
So as it is, the Cowboys' quarterback sits alone in Tier 3. And it may stay that way through the summer. But there's a handful of quarterbacks in the tier behind him who all have the upside to join him with a solid first month of the 2022 season. Jalen Hurts may even join him in May if the Eagles don't add any competition.
The other tier that gives me trouble is Tier 6 with Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson. Both of those quarterbacks still have top-five upside in a given year, and Watson could be a top-five Dynasty quarterback in the near future. But there's too much uncertainty and too much potential negativity to tier them that high. For Watson those negatives are obvious, for Wilson is being a 33-year-old quarterback who is currently tied to an antiquated offensive approach.
Here are the updated Dynasty Tiers and quarterback:
