Vacated targets or opportunities are one of my favorite ways to get a look at NFL teams for Fantasy Football purposes before we get into free agency and the NFL Draft. For that reason, I put together the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article, highlighting how many running back rush attempts and targets by position each team needs to replace from 2021.
The very nature of this document makes it one that needs to be updated, so you should expect to see changes to the spreadsheet once we start getting more cuts and franchise tag news. For now, as a rule, unrestricted free agents are the only players I've removed from each team. When restricted free agents sign somewhere else, I'll remove them. When salary cap cuts happen this spring, I'll remove them. And if an unrestricted free agent signs back with their team, I'll add their targets back in.
I said "as a rule" because there are always exceptions. Currently my only two major exceptions are Davante Adams and J.D. McKissic. I am projecting them to return to their teams because I can't see the Packers letting Adams get away and the Commanders appear to value McKissic more than anyone else. If I'm proven wrong on those guys, I'll make the correction.
Before I get to the data itself, three observations:
1. Tampa Bay and Arizona need to replace most of their skill-position players. Both teams are projected to lose their top two rushers, multiple wide receivers, and their top tight ends as. The Buccaneers, of course, need to find a quarterback as well. The Arizona running back job, if the Cardinals settle on just one guy, looks like it could be one of the most appealing of all. They have 410 running back touches to replace in a very good offense.
2. Look for the places where injured stars could be returning. Tennessee and Baltimore both rank in the top five in terms of running back opportunities to replace. Derrick Henry and J.K. Dobbins should handle most of that. Same goes for Atlanta's 132 wide receiver targets, assuming Calvin Ridley returns.
3. Expect a wild tight end market. I currently have eight teams projected with at least 89 targets to replace. In 2021 there were only two such teams. It's possible we see Mike Gesicki and/or Dalton Schultz receive the franchise tag, but expect there are going to be more openings than quality tight ends this offseason. That could mean Zach Ertz gets one more decent contract.
Here's the first run of the index, sorted by total opportunities projected to be available (targets and running back rush attempts). There's also a breakdown of each position so you can see where the needs are more specifically. The last three columns are the target share by position for each team. Note that if there's been a coaching change this year, that may not matter as much.
Expect updates in March once we get more definitive information:
