With the completion of my way-too-early 2024 projections, I started putting just a little bit more emphasis on 2024 in my Dynasty rankings formula. But just a little. For the most part, I de-emphasize next year's projections this time of year for two reasons.
First, the obvious reason; it's way too early. Free agency and the NFL Draft haven't even happened yet. These projections I put in February are going to change a lot in the next six months. They shouldn't play too big of a factor in valuing players.
But maybe more important is that devaluing the coming year has the effect of lowering the value of most veterans, especially guys who may only have one year left. That is exactly what I want to be doing in February, March, and April. That's because those guys may see a huge dip in their value before they ever play a game, and they don't have much time left to recover that value. In other words, just as I wrote that I don't like rostering running backs this time of year, I also would prefer to get younger this time of year if I can.
You'll see evidence of that in my Travis Kelce ranking below. In my initial 2024 projections, he came out as TE1 again. Despite a slow finish to the year, Kelce reemerged as the best tight end in football in the playoffs and whatever small retirement risk there was vanished. Still, he's already 34 years old. Any perceived bad news in the next six months could crater his value. Any really bad news could make him a sunk cost.
That doesn't mean you should give Kelce away if you are a true contender this season. The upside is worth the risk of holding in my opinion. But if you're in the middle of the pack or worse I would be active trying to trade him during rookie drafts, if not sooner. It's possible he might fetch you more in season. But that is assuming a lot of risk on your part.
Here are my updated Dynasty tight end rankings:
