Trey Lance has thrown 132 passes in game action since the 2019 season. If you count all of his college games, he's only started 21 games in college and the NFL. After breaking his ankle in Week 2 against the Seahawks in Week 2, he won't start another game until at least September of 2023.
While we expect and are hoping for a full recovery for Lance, it's become very difficult to value you him in Dynasty Fantasy Football leagues. Last year at this time it was conventional wisdom that all the 49ers gave up for him would earn him at least three years as the starter in San Francisco. That opportunity combined with his undeniable upside, and the near-perfect situation around him, made Lance a consensus top-12 Dynasty quarterback. Even if I was slightly behind that consensus, it wasn't because I doubted his upside.
Now, Lance will have at maximum 17 regular season games before the 49ers have to make a decision on whether to pick up his fifth-year option. And it's really not fair to anyone who has played this little football to be ready to perform like an NFL starter as soon as Week 1 next year. Lance still has that upside, but the floor has almost wholly disappeared through no fault of his own.
From a Dynasty perspective, Lance is not more valuable in one-quarterback leagues than he is in Superflex, because his floor is less relevant. Still, he's fallen point he's been in the past year in my one-quarterback rankings below. In a Superflex league, I'd have to drop him outside of the top 20.
What Lance is, is a buy for a rebuilding team, especially if his manager agrees with this assessment. He's exactly the player I wouldn't mind holding for the next year if winning wasn't a priority because he could turn into a league-winning lottery ticket if everything breaks right.
Here are my updated Dynasty quarterback rankings: