Nearly everyone who plays Fantasy Football knows that, as a rule, the most dangerous Fantasy asset is an aging elite running back. As Todd Gurley and Le'Veon Bell (and maybe Derrick Henry) have shown as of late, the end can come quickly.
As much as we know that we have a really hard time selling when a player is still performing at an elite level. Sure, Fantasy managers are happy to sell Ezekiel Elliott and Aaron Jones now, after their value has dropped. But it seems far more daunting to deal Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, or Alvin Kamara. That's especially true if you view yourself as a contender. But at least two of them are terrifying to me, and consistent fallers. The other, Ekeler, may just be my blind spot.
The case against Kamara is more clear. His offseason arrest and the reporting around it suggests he may not even play a full season in 2022. And any missed time in 2022 cripples his value because the recent history of running backs after age 27 is pretty abysmal. Kamara's sole value is to contenders right now, and if he loses that he could slip out of the top 25 at the position pretty easily. Not to mention the fact that the Saints profile as one of the worst offenses in the league in 2022 and Taysom Hill is currently their most qualified quarterback.
Cook doesn't have the same concerns as Kamara, but you still shouldn't expect a full season from him. In five seasons in the NFL, he has never played more than 14 games. A major injury in 2022 would completely crush his Dynasty value in a way possibly worse than a Kamara suspension. Also, Cook has a new coaching staff coming in, and if they follow Sean McVay's lead then you should expect the offense in Minnesota to be less running back-centric than it has been since Cook arrived.
For many people, Cook and Kamara are still surefire No. 1 running backs in Dynasty and I'm not even totally sure they should be that in redraft. What I do know is that it's highly unlikely we view both in the same light at the end of this season. That doesn't mean you should necessarily sell as low as I have them in the rankings below, I'm pretty sure I'm on the low end on both of them. It does mean that if you can get close to their consensus value, you should pounce--even if you're a contender.
Here are my updated Dynasty running back rankings:
