Dynasty Fantasy Football is best played as a long game, but that does not mean that change doesn't happen all at once. Sure, occasionally we see a long decline, or a linear rise from a player in Dynasty. More often we see their value fall off a cliff, or shoot to the moon.
This happens a lot at running back because the position is so opportunity-dependent. But it's important to keep your eye on every position in Week 1. In particular, I'll be watching these five quarterbacks for a glimpse of what is to come in 2023, and beyond.
Anthony Richardson (QB7)
If there is a guy I am prepared to be patient with early on it is Richardson. Rookie quarterbacks often struggle, particularly early. So I'll have an eye on his success in the passing game, but I am not expecting much. I want to see Richardson the runner, because his size/speed combination could lead to something really special immediately. I also want to see what Shane Steichen is drawing up early for the rookie. This is a guy who smoothed the path for both Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts, and I am excited to see what he does with Richardson.
Deshaun Watson (QB15)
While I'm extremely excited to see what Richardson does, I'm peeking through my fingers at Watson and the Browns. Just three years ago he led the NFL in both passing yards and yards per attempt. His 5.8% career touchdown rate still ranks top five among active QBs. But he looked nothing at all like that guy in 2022. And he gave me no real reason for optimism in the preseason. Watson and Russell Wilson both could lose a lot of my confidence if they don't look at least competent in Week 1.
Kenny Pickett (QB17)
Sam Howell (QB18)
Jordan Love (QB19)
Howell, Pickett, and Love are all QB2s in redraft and Dynasty, but we have very little reason to be confident whether they will be good or bad QB2s. Pickett was incredible in the preseason, but he'll face a much tougher task in Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers. Does any of his preseason success translate? Howell has this mysterious rushing upside that feels like it could be a house of cards, but if it's real he could be Daniel Jones with better weapons. Love has been waiting forever, and I'm not particularly excited about the upside, but I am still very interested to see if he can prove me wrong.
Entering Week 1, I am higher than consensus on Richardson, Howell, and Love, lower than the consensus on Watson, and just right on Pickett. Week 1 does have the potential to shake that up, particularly for Watson, Howell, and Love.
Head over to Sportsline to find my complete Dynasty Trade Chart with values for both Superflex and one-QB leagues. These will be updated once a week on Wednesday nights throughout the season and are based on 12-team PPR leagues where you start two running backs, three receivers, and a tight end. The values assigned to the players factor in a combination of current year projection, age, and my perception of the player's upside and risk. There is also a factor for replacement cost at a given position. You can find the Dynasty Trade Charts here.
Also, my SportsLine projections give another view of what I'm expecting in Week 1.
