The only way you're going to avoid an uncomfortable decision with Chris Godwin this week is if he doesn't play. That's at least partially due to all the mixed signals we've receiver about his Week 1 status. Even Wednesday's practice report was confusing, with Godwin being listed as a full participant even though he went through practice in a non-contact jersey.
Godwin was comfortable enough to ditch his knee brace recently, but he's also said that it's not about Week 1 and the most important part of the season is the second half. To this point it might seem like an easy call to bench Godwin even if he's active, until you remember his upside.
Godwin ranked as WR9 on a per-game basis in 2021, three spots higher than teammate Mike Evans, and that includes Week 15 when he only played 22% of the snaps. The year before he was WR15 per game, again besting Evans.
Playing with Tom Brady, there's a legitimate chance Godwin could produce a top-12 week even if he's on a pitch count. He could also play a handful of high-leverage snaps as a decoy and give you a goose egg.
Further complicating this mess is the fact that Godwin plays in prime time on Sunday night, so we may not know his status when most of the action kicks off Sunday. If that's the case, you can hardly risk him unless you have someone like Russell Gage, Julio Jones, Jalen Tolbert, or Tyler Lockett to cover your tracks. if he's cleared before Sunday morning then I'm likely starting him, but your decision should be based on risk tolerance and how good your best replacement option is.
If your replacement option is Gabe Davis or Allen Robinson, then it's a pretty easy call to start them on Thursday night.
As for the rest of the Bucs receivers, Mike Evans is a must-start no matter what. Unless Godwin has been ruled out, I'm viewing Russell Gage and Julio Jones as deep flexes. If Godwin is ruled out early, then they'd be bumped up to boom-or-bust No. 3 wide receivers.
Here is the rest of the Week 1 WR Preview:
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Week 1 WR Preview
The following players are not being projected to play Week 1 at this time. Here's what it means:
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Numbers to Know
- 81 -- Darnell Mooney received the fourth-most targets in the league from Week 11-18.
- 100.3 -- Elijah Moore scored the second-most Fantasy points by a wide receiver from Week 9-13.
- 42.3 -- The Vikings surrendered the most PPR Fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers in 2021.
- 48.4% -- The Eagles had the second-lowest target rate directed toward wide receivers in 2021. This should change with A.J. Brown on the roster.
- 80.4% -- Hunter Renfrow caught 103 of 128 targets last season, the second-highest catch rate by a wide receiver with at least 100 targets since the stat was first tracked in 1992.
- 439.5 -- Cooper Kupp broke the WR single-season PPR Fantasy points record in 2021 with 439.5 points last year.
- 265 -- The Chiefs have 265 targets to replace at wide receiver in 2022, the most in the NFL.
- 8 -- Deebo Samuel had eight rushing touchdowns last year. Regression and Trey Lance should halve that at least
- 3,525 -- D.J. Moore has 3,525 receiving yards since the start of 2019. Only Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and Travis Kelce have more.
- 29% -- Targets per route run for Kadarius Toney in 2021, which ranked fifth at the position. If he can stay on the field, he's a breakout.
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Matchups that matter
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Waiver Wire Targets
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Heath's Projections
