There's been plenty of consternation around the league about the Redskins' lack of commitment to Kirk Cousins. If anyone should understand it's Fantasy owners.
Despite the fact Cousins has given us back-to-back years of starter production, there are still plenty doubting whether he should be drafted as a No. 1 Fantasy QB. But this year that doesn't have as much to do with doubts about Cousins as it does changes in his environment.
With DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon both leaving Washington, Cousins lost a pair of 1,000 yard receivers. He also lost his offensive coordinator. Can their replacements support him enough to provide another shockingly good season? Let's look at the expectations:
*Rankings expressed below are in terms of expected Fantasy points. This is a part of our actual Fantasy Football rankings but not a direct correlation to my rankings. Things like injury risk, upside, etc. factor into rankings but they're not being talked about here. This is simply an expectation as the team is currently constructed.
| Player | Expected FP | Position Rank | Expected PPR FP | Position Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Terrelle Pryor
WAS WR
| 137.3 | 22 | 212.3 | 26 |
Jordan Reed
WAS TE
| 114.6 | 5 | 185.6 | 6 |
Jamison Crowder
WAS WR
| 123.7 | 37 | 201.7 | 30 |
Rob Kelley
WAS RB
| 115.3 | 32 | 124.3 | 39 |
Kirk Cousins
WAS QB
| 331.1 | 11 | 331.1 | 11 |
Josh Doctson
WAS WR
| 108.1 | 49 | 166.1 | 49 |
Chris Thompson
WAS RB
| 77 | 50 | 118 | 43 |
Samaje Perine
WAS RB
| 79 | 49 | 85 | 59 |
Breaking down the touches
Even with Sean McVay leaving for the Los Angeles Rams I feel confident in the continuity between Jay Gruden and Kirk Cousins. The team got a little too pass-happy last season but they've also never had a season where they passed the ball less than 57 percent of the time.
I'm expecting around 570 pass attempts with about a quarter of those pass attempts going to the tight ends. They don't throw to running backs often (17 percent), but when they do it will be to Chris Thompson.
The interesting thing will be the split between the returning receiver (Crowder) and the two that are essentially new to the offense (Pryor and Doctson). Yes, Doctson was in Washington last year, but he only saw six targets because of injury. Let's take a look:
| Redskins Touches | ||||||||
| Player | RuSHARE | RuATT | ReSHARE | TGT | REC | TOTAL TD | ||
| Rob Kelley | 40% | 175 | 2% | 14 | 9 | 6 | ||
| Samaje Perine | 28% | 115 | 2% | 10 | 6 | 5 | ||
| Chris Thompson | 16% | 66 | 10% | 55 | 41 | 3 | ||
| Terrelle Pryor | 0% | 0 | 20% | 112 | 78 | 6 | ||
| Jamison Crowder | 0% | 0 | 20% | 112 | 75 | 6 | ||
| Josh Doctson | 0% | 0 | 17% | 96 | 58 | 4 | ||
| Jordan Reed | 0% | 0 | 17% | 95 | 71 | 7 | ||
| Vernon Davis | 0% | 0 | 8% | 45 | 32 | 3 | ||
Of note:
- I've tried really hard to not "expect injury" but it's the most difficult with Jordan Reed, who has never played more than 14 games in a season.
- The RB split is near impossible to project at this point, but until we get to camp I'm expecting to Kelley to start Week 1. I also expect both will have "hot hand" stretches where they're the best RB in Washington.
- Jamison Crowder likely has the highest floor and the lowest ceiling on the receiving corps.
The Leftovers
I factored more players into the expectations for the Redskins than most teams, which leaves this section a bit bare. One guy that didn't get mentioned above is Brian Quick, who the team signed in the offseason. Quick has great size and Cousins will be the best quarterback he's ever played with. He needs an injury or two to have an impact, but I wouldn't rule out him putting up No. 3 WR production if given the opportunity.
