I understand why Giants fans would be excited about their offense. They added Brandon Marshall, an obvious upgrade over Victor Cruz. They drafted Evan Engram, who may very well be the best pass catching tight end they've had since Jeremy Shockey. Paul Perkins and Sterling Shepard should be improved players.
Giants fans have every reason to expect an improved offense. I'm just not sure I'm digging it for Fantasy.
Brandon Marshall is a 33 year old coming off an absolutely awful 2016 season. Engram is a rookie tight end, and we know how that usually turns out. Shepard's Fantasy production in 2016 was inflated by a touchdown rate that's unlikely to be repeated. With all of these pieces it seems likely at least one of them is going to disappoint. Let's start with the expectations:
*Rankings expressed below are in terms of expected Fantasy points. This is a part of our actual Fantasy Football rankings but not a direct correlation to my rankings. Things like injury risk, upside, etc. factor into rankings but they're not being talked about here. This is simply an expectation as the team is currently constructed.
|Player||Expected FP||Position Rank||Expected PPR FP||Position Rank|
Odell Beckham NYG WR
Paul Perkins NYG RB
Brandon Marshall NYG WR
Sterling Shepard NYG WR
Eli Manning NYG QB
Evan Engram NYG TE
Breaking down the touches
The Giants have been pass-happy the past three seasons, averaging 609 pass attempts per season to just 417 rush attempts. With all of these new weapons in the passing game, that is not a trend I expect to reverse itself. What's more interesting will be how those 600 targets are distributed.
The Giants have thrown right at 20 percent of their passes to running backs the past two seasons, but tight end targets have fluctuated wildly. Engram could make a real impact if they treat the position like they did in 2015 and throw 185 passes to tight ends. That will also influence how many targets there are to go between Beckham, Marshall and Shepard. Here is my expectation:
- The health of Shane Vereen will have a big impact on Perkins' involvement in the passing game. I would expect Vereen's impact is limited as the team tries to keep him healthy.
- I'm really tempted to project Shepard for more targets than Marshall, but the fact is I could see either Marshall or Engram taking a chunk of his work.
- The only certainty in this entire offense is Beckham. It's very possible the rest of this group ends up overdrafted.
The most interesting non-starters on this team are going to be the running backs. If Shane Vereen is actually 100 percent for an entire season he might catch 75 passes and do a Danny Woodhead impersonation. If Paul Perkins struggles or gets injured Wayne Gallman may get a shot at 15 touches a game and a ton of red zone touches.