The 2022 MLB Winter Meetings are underway and we've already seen several significant signings. Most notably, Justin Verlander joined the Mets (two years and $86.6 million) and Trea Turner joined the reigning NL champion Phillies (11 years and $300 million). As of Tuesday morning 36 of our top 50 free agents remain unsigned.
As part of the new collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the MLBPA agreed to a revamped amateur draft order in an effort to curb noncompetitive behavior (i.e. tanking). With slight modifications here and there, the annual draft order was set in reverse order of the previous year's standings since the draft was first instituted in 1965. That is no longer the case.
Here is the new draft order structure:
- Picks 1-6: Lottery
- Picks 7-18: Non-postseason, non-lottery teams in reverse order of the previous year's standings
- Picks 19-22: Wild Card Series losers
- Picks 23-26: Division Series losers
- Picks 27-28: Championship Series losers
- Pick 29: World Series loser
- Pick 30: World Series winner
Here's what you need to know about the 2023 draft order, which will be finalized when the lottery is held Tuesday evening at the Winter Meetings in San Diego.
Lottery date
The first lottery in MLB draft history will be held on Tuesday, Dec. 6. The lottery itself will be broadcast live on MLB Network at 8:30 p.m. ET. Prepare yourself for general managers sitting sheepishly on stage, hoping their team was bad enough to secure the No. 1 pick in next year's draft.
Lottery odds
All 18 non-postseason teams have a chance at the No. 1 pick, though the worst teams have the best lottery odds. Here are the odds of securing the No. 1 pick for those 18 non-postseason teams:
| Team | No. 1 pick odds | Team | No. 1 pick odds |
|---|---|---|---|
Nationals (55-107) | 16.5% | Angels (73-89) | 1.8% |
Athletics (60-102) | 16.5% | Diamondbacks (74-88) | 1.4% |
Pirates (62-100) | 16.5% | Cubs (74-88) | 1.1% |
Reds (62-100) | 13.2% | Twins (78-84) | 0.9% |
Royals (65-97) | 10.0% | Red Sox (78-84) | 0.8% |
Tigers (66-96) | 7.5% | White Sox (81-81) | 0.6% |
Rangers (68-94) | 5.5% | Giants (81-81) | 0.5% |
Rockies (68-94) | 3.9% | Orioles (83-79) | 0.4% |
Marlins (69-93) | 2.7% | Brewers (86-76) | 0.2% |
The tiebreaker is the previous year's record, which is why the Pirates (61-101 in 2021) have a 16.5 percent shot at the No. 1 pick while the Reds (83-79 in 2021) are at 13.2 percent even though the two teams finished with identical 62-100 records in 2022. The Orioles held the No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft and selected shortstop Jackson Holliday (Matt's son).
Picks 19-30 are set
The lottery will determine the top six picks, then the next 12 picks are the remaining 12 non-postseason teams in reverse order of the standings. That's the easy stuff. Picks 19-30 are determined by each team's postseason finish, and within each "tier" the teams are sorted by revenue sharing status and then regular season record. Here are picks 19-30:
19. Rays (Wild Card Series loser, received revenue sharing, 86-76 in 2022)
20. Blue Jays (Wild Card Series loser, no revenue sharing, 92-70 in 2022)
21. Cardinals (Wild Card Series loser, no revenue sharing, 93-69 in 2022)
22. Mets (Wild Card Series loser, paid revenue sharing, 101-61 in 2022)
23. Mariners (Division Series loser, received revenue sharing, 90-72 in 2022)
24. Guardians (Division Series loser, received revenue sharing, 92-70 in 2022)
25. Braves (Division Series loser, received revenue sharing, 101-61 in 2022)
26. Dodgers (Division Series loser, paid revenue sharing, 111-51 in 2022)
27. Padres (Championship Series loser, received revenue sharing, 89-73 in 2022)
28. Yankees (Championship Series loser, paid revenue sharing, 99-63 in 2022)
29. Phillies (World Series loser)
30. Astros (World Series winner)
It must be noted the Mets and Dodgers will have their first-round picks moved back 10 spots next year because they exceeded the $230 million competitive tax threshold by at least $40 million in 2022. So the Mets will pick at No. 32 instead of No. 22, and the Dodgers will pick at No. 36 instead of No. 26.
All first-round picks are protected
No longer do teams surrender first-round picks when signing a free agent attached to draft pick compensation (i.e. the player rejected the qualifying offer). Now teams give up lower round picks and international bonus pool money when they sign a qualified free agent. Here's how the free agent compensation system works nowadays.
Top prospects for 2023 draft
It is still way, way too early know who will go No. 1 overall in 2023. There are entire college and high school seasons that will be played between now and the draft next July. For a good look ahead though, here is R.J. Anderson's super early look at the best prospects in next year's draft.
