The 2020 NBA Finals continue on Friday night at 9 p.m. ET inside the Orlando NBA bubble with Game 5. The Los Angeles Lakers have a chance to close out the Miami Heat for their 17th championship. The Lakers hold a 3-1 series lead after grinding out a 102-96 win in Game 4 on Wednesday. LeBron James had 28 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists in the victory. He's averaging 27.8 points, 11.0 rebounds and 8.5 assists for the series as he looks for his fourth NBA title.
However, the Heat have been resilient throughout the 2020 NBA Playoffs and Jimmy Butler has been a force of his own in this series, averaging 27.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 10.0 assists. Los Angeles is favored by 7.5 points with the over-under for total points set at 215.5 in the latest Lakers vs. Heat odds from William Hill. Before finalizing any Heat vs. Lakers picks for Game 5, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it's already returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the 2020 NBA Finals on a blistering 61-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,500 on those picks alone. It's also a sizzling 11-3 on top-rated picks since the NBA's restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Lakers vs. Heat spread: Lakers -7.5
- Lakers vs. Heat over-under: 215.5 points
- Lakers vs. Heat money line: Lakers -330, Heat +270
- LAL: The Lakers are 4-4-2 against the spread in the last 10 games
- MIA: The Heat are 6-3-1 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Lakers can cover
Throughout the series, the Lakers have taken advantage of a massive size advantage with James, Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard, Markieff Morris and even Rajon Rondo all helping to dominate the glass on both ends of the floor. The Lakers have collected 26.4 percent of available offensive rebounds in the series and 86.7 percent of available defensive rebounds.
Even with Bam Adebayo back in Game 4 from a neck injury, the Lakers won the rebounding battle 42-39 and Heat wings have had a particularly hard time keeping James off the boards. And with the Lakers now sinking from 10-point favorites in Game 2 to 7.5 favorites in Game 5, there's added value on that side of the spread. Miami is also expected to be without starting point guard Goran Dragic (foot), who was injured in Game 1 of the series.
Why the Heat can cover
Though the Lakers have two superstars, the Heat are receiving star-level contributions from Butler. Headlined by a 40-point triple-double in Game 3, Butler has been fantastic, averaging 27.5 points, 10.0 assists, 7.8 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game in the NBA Finals. Elsewhere, rookie guard Tyler Herro gives Miami an offensive punch, averaging 17.3 points and 5.3 rebounds per game against Los Angeles, and the Heat are an elite offensive team.
In fact, the Heat are actually shooting the ball more efficiently than the Lakers in the series, posting a 59.1 percent true shooting clip in four games, and Miami can take solace in that edge. The Heat must improve on the glass in order to level the playing field, but Miami does a tremendous job at exploiting the numbers game, posting top-five rates in free-throw creation and turnover avoidance, and the Heat are extremely well-coached by Erik Spoelstra.
How to make Lakers vs. Heat picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total with with Kyle Kuzma and Adebayo projected to fall short of their season-long scoring averages. It also says one side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lakers vs. Heat spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $5,000 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.