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The Miami Heat and the Charlotte Hornets take the floor for a Southeast Division battle on Friday. The game will be broadcast to a national audience, with Miami entering at 3-1 and Charlotte enjoying a 4-1 start to the 2021-22 campaign. The Heat have dominated this series in recent years, winning 10 of their last 15 meetings against the Hornets. 

Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Miami. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Heat as five-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 222.5 in the latest Hornets vs. Heat odds. Before you make any Heat vs. Hornets picks and NBA predictions, you need to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model finished up almost $600 on its top-rated picks last season and enters Week 2 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 103-68 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Hornets vs. Heat and revealed its coveted picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see all of the model's NBA picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Heat vs. Hornets:

  • Hornets vs. Heat spread: Heat -5
  • Hornets vs. Heat over-under: 222.5 points
  • Hornets vs. Heat money line: Heat -220, Hornets +180
  • CHA: The Hornets are 4-1 against the spread this season
  • MIA: The Heat are 3-1 against the spread this season

Why the Hornets can cover

Charlotte's offense is off to a racing start. The Hornets are scoring 114.8 points per 100 possessions, a top-five figure in the NBA, and Charlotte ranks near the top of the league in several categories. The Hornets are shooting 47.3 percent the floor and 41.3 percent from 3-point distance, putting up 27.0 assists per game and generating 1.96 assists for every turnover. Charlotte also sports a 29.4 percent offensive rebound rate, and the Hornets have young talent to lead the way. 

LaMelo Ball is averaging 19.6 points, 6.0 assists and 5.6 rebounds per game, with Miles Bridges adding 26.2 points and 8.0 rebounds per contest. Defensively, Charlotte isn't dominant, but the Hornets are picking up 10 steals per game, and they are using that chaos to fuel a highly potent and efficient transition offense.

Why the Heat can cover

Miami's defense has carried the team to this point, leading the NBA in defensive rating in allowing 92 points per 100 possessions to opponents, but the Heat do have plenty of offensive firepower. Jimmy Butler remains a star-level shot creator, averaging 23.3 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game this season. Tyler Herro appears to have taken a step forward, averaging 21.0 points, 7.3 rebounds and 4.0 assists per contest, and the Heat are well-coached under Erik Spoelstra. 

Miami is a top-five team in both free throw volume (22.5 attempts per game) and free throw accuracy (81.1 percent), and the Heat are a top-tier offensive rebounding team, grabbing 28.7 percent of their own misses in the early going. Charlotte is also a bottom-10 defensive team with limited size and talent on that end of the floor, and the Heat should be comfortable in their home building.

How to make Hornets vs. Heat picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the point total, projecting these two teams combine for 217 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's Heat vs. Hornets picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Hornets vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Heat vs. Hornets spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.