The top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder will look to get back into the driver's seat of the series when they take on the fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks in Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinal matchup at Dallas on Saturday. The Thunder (57-25), who were 36-16 against conference opponents during the regular season, won three of four regular-season games against Dallas this year. The Mavericks (50-32), who went 31-21 against the West, were 10-9 against the Northwest Division this past season. OKC leads the all-time series with Dallas, 105-94.

The game from American Airlines Center will tip off at 3:30 p.m. ET. Dallas is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Thunder vs. Mavericks odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 217.5. Before making any Mavericks vs. Thunder picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model entered the conference semifinals in the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 94-61 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following the model has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavs vs. Thunder and just locked in its 2024 NBA playoff predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Thunder vs. Mavs:

  • Thunder vs. Mavericks spread: Dallas -2.5
  • Thunder vs. Mavericks over/under: 217.5 points
  • Thunder vs. Mavericks money line: Dallas -143, OKC +121
  • OKC: 50-37-1 ATS this season 
  • DAL: Hit the game total Under in 42 of their last 65 games (+16.70 units)
  • Thunder vs. Mavericks picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Mavericks can cover

Power forward PJ Washington was dominant in Thursday's Game 2 win over the Thunder. In 40 minutes of action, Washington scored 29 points, grabbed 11 rebounds and added four assists, two steals and one block. He had 10 points and six rebounds in the Game 1 loss. In eight postseason starts, he is averaging 13 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.3 assists in 34.6 minutes. He is connecting on 47.5% of his field goals, including a blistering 41.3% from 3-point range.

Point guard Luka Doncic (knee, ankle), who is battling a pair of injuries and is listed as questionable, is coming off a 29-point, 10-rebound, seven-assist and three-steal performance in the Game 2 win. He became the first player in NBA history to average 33 points, nine rebounds and nine assists in a regular season. He tied Oscar Robertson for the most 35-point, 10-assist games against any one franchise in NBA postseason history after Game 6 against the Los Angeles Clippers on May 3 with four. In eight playoff games this season, he is averaging 28.4 points, 9.1 assists, 8.6 rebounds and 1.4 steals in 42.1 minutes. See which team to pick here.

Why the Thunder can cover 

Point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had the hot hand for Oklahoma City in Thursday's loss, scoring 33 points, grabbing 12 rebounds and dishing out eight assists in 41 minutes. He has scored 24 or more points in all eight playoff games, and registered a pair of double-doubles. In six postseason starts, he is averaging 28.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.2 blocks in 38.3 minutes. He is connecting on 48% of his field goals and 78.8% of his free throws.

Forward Jalen Williams has been a consistent contributor for the Thunder. He is coming off a 20-point, four-rebound and four-assist effort in a Game 2 loss to Dallas. In six postseason starts, he is averaging 20.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.3 steals in 37 minutes. He is hitting on 49% of his shots from the floor, including 40.7% from 3-point range and 77.8% of his free throws. See which team to pick here.

How to make Thunder vs. Mavericks picks      

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 217 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread is the better value. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine

So who wins Mavericks vs. Thunder, and which side of the spread is the better value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,800 on its NBA picks this season, and find out.