This is an article version of the CBS Sports HQ PM Newsletter, the ultimate daily sports gambling guide. You can sign up to get it in your inbox every weekday afternoon here.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Warriors at Lakers, 10 p.m. | TV: ESPN
- Key Trend: Davis hasn't gone over this total in any of the last four games.
- The Pick: Anthony Davis Under 38.5 Points & Rebounds (-117)
I'm tempted to bet the Warriors to win this one outright because I'm not afraid to occasionally put the tinfoil hat on. You know the NBA is salivating at possibly having a Sunday schedule with two Games 7. Perhaps the league will find some incentive to make sure that happens tonight?
The problem is when I take the tinfoil hat off, I have a hard time imagining the Warriors picking up a win on the road. That's been Golden State's problem all year long. The Warriors are 12-34 on the road this year and an especially terrible 3-20 as road underdogs. It doesn't get much better against the spread. They're 13-33 ATS on the road overall and 6-17 ATS as road dogs. There isn't a tinfoil hat in the world powerful enough to get me to bet them tonight.
Instead, I'll stick with player props. Anthony Davis had a monster performance in Game 1 of the series, going off for 30 points, 23 rebounds and five assists. Since then, he's been good for the most part, but he hasn't come close to matching those numbers. Yet the prop totals remain at a level that makes it seem like he is (even after suffering a head injury in the last game)
He's gone over on his assist prop in five of the six games. However, the only time he's gone over on either his points or rebounds prop is in Game 1 and Game 3. If you look at his points and rebounds prop, he's only gone over in Game 1. He finished that game with 53 and has averaged 31.5 in the four games since. A part of that is due to the Warriors changing their lineup and inserting Gary Payton for Kevon Looney, which has forced Davis to play closer to the three-point line on defense, and impacted his rebounding output.
There's a strong chance we'll see more of the same tonight.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: If you're looking for a more traditional play, the Projection Model has a B-grade on tonight's spread.
💰 The Picks
🏀 NBA
The Pick: Klay Thompson Over 6.5 Rebounds & Assists (-119) -- The narrative around Klay Thompson in this series is that he's playing poorly. There's truth in it. However, the narrative is skewed a bit too much, so let's exploit it. People believe Klay is playing poorly because he isn't shooting well. After scoring 55 points in the first two games, Klay has shot 29.7% from the field in the last three and is averaging 11.3 points.
But when Klay's shot isn't falling, he doesn't sulk. Klay is a Splash Brother, but he's always been more than a shooter. Unlike, say, oh, I don't know, Jordan Poole, he's not entirely useless when he isn't scoring. That includes on defense and as a distributor. He's finished with at least seven assists and rebounds in four of the five games. The only game he didn't was Game 2, when he shot 8-for-11 from three. The man had no reason to pass the ball that night, and there weren't any rebounds to get.
Knicks at Heat, 7:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Kevin Love Over 1.5 Assists (-160) -- I've made plenty of jokes at the expense of the Knicks in my time writing this newsletter, but I want Knicks fans to know that if they were up 3-2 in this series, I'd feel the same way. All I want is for this series to be over. I don't want to watch it anymore. It's awful. It's setting basketball back as a sport. It's one thing to watch college players play poorly, it's another to watch guys being paid $20 million a year miss a bunch of 10-foot jump shots.
But as much as I hate it, I didn't want to send you into the evening without at least something to bet on in the game. This Kevin Love prop is the easiest money on the board. Love is averaging 2.6 assists per game in the series and has had at least two in four of the five games. I hope he gets them both in the first half so I can turn the game off.
⚽ Soccer
Chelsea vs. Nottingham Forest, Saturday, 10 a.m. | TV: USA
The Pick: Over 2.5 (-125) -- If only Chelsea knew how to score, we'd have made so much money betting overs in its matches this season. Fun fact about the most expensive bottom half of the table team of all time: It has allowed at least two goals in seven of its last 10 matches. It has not scored a goal in six of them. So why are we risking it now? Why are we taking the chance on Chelsea not only continuing to be booty on the defensive end but capable of scoring?
Because Chelsea has started showing signs of life in attack! It scored against Arsenal and followed it up with three goals against Bournemouth last week. Now, Bournemouth has been one of the worst defensive teams in the Premier League this season. Its expected goals allowed (xGA) of 59.9 ranks 17th, but guess what? Forest is worse! Nottingham ranks 19th at 61.0. Plus, Nottingham has plenty to play for as it hasn't wrapped up survival yet, and its attack has been effective in recent weeks during a 3-1 win over Brighton and the 4-3 win over Southampton.
Arsenal vs. Brighton, Sunday, 11:30 a.m. | TV: USA
The Pick: Arsenal (-135) -- There are a lot of factors working against Brighton these days. Due to matches being postponed because of cup runs, the Seagulls have played only 33 matches this season. They've been forced to play make-up games in the final weeks of the season, meaning this match against Arsenal will be its tenth match since the first of April. Compare that to Arsenal, which will be playing its eighth match in that time. Now, two matches may not seem like a lot, but when it's at the end of the season, and you're typically playing two matches a week, it begins to wear on your legs. Particularly when, unlike Arsenal, you don't have a large squad to help you deal with the excess matches.
It's probably why Brighton has been so inconsistent lately. It beat Wolves 6-0 and Manchester United 1-0, but those wins were sandwiched by a 3-1 loss to Nottingham Forest and Monday's 5-1 loss to Everton. Granted, Brighton played better than the final score against Everton indicates, but Arsenal knows it has to win out to even have a prayer of winning the Premier League. And, if all that isn't enough, Arsenal's xG differential per match is nearly four times better at home than it is on the road. It's really tough to beat them at the Emirates.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: There's only one A-graded play on the board tonight, and it's a moneyline play between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres.
