The Houston Rockets (38-37) are in a must-win position heading into their game against the Golden State Warriors (41-34) on Thursday night. Houston went 13-2 in March to keep itself alive for a spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament, but it is coming off a 113-106 loss at Minnesota on Tuesday. The Rockets are three games behind the Warriors for tenth place in the standings, which is the final spot in the play-in tournament field. Golden State is riding a timely five-game winning streak following its 104-100 win over Dallas on Tuesday. 

Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET at the Toyota Center in Houston. Golden State is favored by 4 points in the latest Rockets vs. Warriors odds, while the over/under is 228 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Warriors vs. Rockets picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 23 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 81-55 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,300. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Golden State vs. Houston. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Warriors vs. Rockets:

  • Rockets vs. Warriors spread: Rockets +4
  • Rockets vs. Warriors over/under: 228 points
  • Rockets vs. Warriors money line: Rockets: +143, Warriors: -170
  • Rockets vs. Warriors picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Rockets can cover

Houston simply cannot afford a loss in this game, as it only has seven games remaining in the regular season and is three games behind Golden State for the final spot in the play-in tournament field. The Rockets were not expected to make a late push for a playoff spot, but they went 13-2 last month and rattled off 11 consecutive victories from March 8-29. They are coming off a 113-106 loss at Minnesota, but they covered the spread as 7.5-point underdogs. 

Shooting guard Jalen Green led Houston with 26 points, six assists and five rebounds, shooting 10 of 22 from the floor. Point guard Fred VanVleet added 22 points, while power forward Jabari Smith chipped in 18 points and eight rebounds. The Rockets are 14-3 against the spread in their last 17 games, including a 7-1 mark in their last eight home games. See which team to pick here.

Why the Warriors can cover

Golden State has struggled with consistency at times this season, but the Warriors are playing well down the stretch of the regular season. They won four straight road games to close the month of March, picking up wins over the Heat, Magic, Hornets and Spurs. Their momentum continued on Tuesday, as they beat Dallas as a 1-point home underdog in a 104-100 final. 

Small forward Andrew Wiggins had a team-high 23 points, helping the team overcome a slow night from Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Curry leads Golden State with 26.4 points and 5.0 assists per game, while Thompson is adding 17.3 points. The Warriors have covered the spread in four of their last five games against the Rockets, and they have won six straight games at Houston. Jonathan Kuminga (knee) is listed as questionable to return after missing the last four games. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Rockets vs. Warriors picks

The model has simulated Warriors vs. Rockets 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Rockets vs. Warriors, and which side of the spread hits over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Warriors vs. Rockets spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 81-55 roll on top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.