Getty's Jamie Squire

Teams on a major roll clash when the AFC North champion and fourth-seeded Cincinnati Bengals meet the AFC West champion and second-seeded Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday in the 2022 AFC Championship Game. The Bengals (12-7), who have won five of their last six games, knocked off top-seeded Tennessee in the divisional round of the 2022 NFL playoffs, 19-16. The Chiefs (14-5), winners of 11 of their last 12 games, slipped past Buffalo in overtime last week. The only loss Kansas City has suffered during that stretch was a 34-31 setback at Cincinnati on Jan. 2.

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., is set for 3 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a seven-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Bengals odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 54.5. Before you make any Bengals vs. Chiefs picks or predictions, make sure you check out what SportsLine's top Chiefs expert, Larry Hartstein, has to say.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. Entering the 2021 campaign, Hartstein was 351-291 all-time on NFL sides, including 326-280 against the spread. He is returning more than $2,200 for $100 bettors.

In addition, Hartstein has an amazing 24-8 record on his last 32 against-the-spread picks involving Kansas City, returning $1,500. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Hartstein has locked in another confident against the spread pick for Bengals vs. Chiefs on Sunday. You can only see it at SportsLine. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Bengals vs. Chiefs:

  • Chiefs vs. Bengals spread: Kansas City -7
  • Chiefs vs. Bengals over-under: 54.5 points
  • Chiefs vs. Bengals money line: Cincinnati +270, Kansas City -340
  • CIN: Bengals are 6-0 against the spread in their last six games
  • KC: Over has hit in seven straight Chiefs games

Why the Chiefs can cover

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has dominated this postseason, completing 63 of 83 passes (75.9 percent) for 782 yards and eight touchdowns with one interception. He is tops in rushing on the team with 10 carries for 98 yards and one score. In the divisional round matchup against the Buffalo Bills, he completed 33 of 44 passes (75 percent) for 378 yards and three TDs.

Kansas City's top receiver has been Tyreek Hill, who led the team with 11 receptions for 150 yards and a touchdown last week. In two games this postseason, Hill has 16 receptions for 207 yards (12.9 average) and two scores. He also has four big plays of 20 or more yards, including a 64-yarder. Hill is explosive after the catch with 106 yards, while converting eight first downs.

Why the Bengals can cover

Cincinnati's offense is led by quarterback Joe Burrow, who has been red-hot. In two playoff games, he has completed 52 of 71 passes (73.2 percent) for 592 yards and two touchdowns. He has been intercepted once and has a rating of 101.4. Burrow completed 24 of 34 passes for 244 yards (70.6 percent) and two scores for a rating of 110.4 in the Wild Card win over the Las Vegas Raiders. He followed that up with a 28 of 37 performance for 348 yards in the Divisional Round win over the Tennessee Titans. Burrow had a team-record 4,611 yards and 34 touchdowns during the regular season.

Rookie wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase has had a solid postseason. He is the first rookie to register 100-plus receiving yards in multiple playoff games. He has 14 receptions for 225 yards (16.1 average) with three plays of 20 yards or more, including 111 yards after the catch. He has also rushed four times for 25 yards (6.3 average). He was nearly unstoppable in the Week 17 meeting with the Chiefs, recording 11 receptions for 266 yards (24.2 average) and three touchdowns.

How to make Chiefs vs. Bengals picks

Hartstein has analyzed this matchup and while we can tell you he's leaning over the point total, he has also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing what it is, and which side of the Bengals vs. Chiefs spread to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Bengals vs. Chiefs in the NFL playoffs 2022? And what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bengals vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the expert who's a blistering 24-8 on Chiefs picks.