Andrew Luck retirement shakes up AFC South odds, Colts in last as two teams tied at top

In the wake of the shocking retirement of Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, the Colts are no longer favored to win the AFC South. In fact, sports books now consider it more likely than not that the Colts miss the playoffs entirely, and peg them as the worst team in the division. 

Westgate SuperBook released updated divisional odds on Sunday morning, giving the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars an equal chance to win the South. The Titans have the third-best odds, followed by the Colts, who are +240 to make the postseason.

Indianapolis' win total over/under also dropped, falling from 9.5 prior to Luck's announcement to 7.5 now that we know Jacoby Brissett will be the team's starting quarterback. 

However, on Monday, a pro-Colts movement took hold.

Still, SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh expects the team to drop off even further, projecting their win total to drop from 9.1 to 6.8, and their chances of making the playoffs to fall from 59.3 percent to 17.3 percent. Here's a look at how Oh projected the AFC South race on Sunday morning, compared to his projections on Saturday, prior to the news of Luck's retirement and Texans running back Lamar Miller's torn ACL:

BEFORE WINS WIN % DIV % PLAYOFF %
Colts 9.1 56.9% 47.4% 59.3%
Texans 8.1 50.6% 23.1% 34.8%
Titans 7.2 45.0% 15.7% 23.7%
Jaguars 7.2 45.0% 13.8% 21.0%
AFTER WINS WIN % DIV % PLAYOFF %
Texans 8.7 54.4% 43.2% 52.0%
Titans 7.5 46.9% 23.4% 30.1%
Jaguars 7.4 46.3% 21.0% 27.9%
Colts 6.8 42.5% 12.4% 17.3%

This looks like a pretty wide-open competition here, with the Texans slight favorites over the Titans and Jaguars. If Brissett can show improvement from the last time he was a starter, though, perhaps the Colts can shock same people and make a run at this thing. 

CBS Sports Writer

Jared Dubin is a New York lawyer and writer. He joined CBSSports.com in 2014 and has since spent far too much of his time watching film and working in spreadsheets. Full Bio

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